Risk Analysis for Engineering 2 pot

... or Technology CHAPTER 2. RISK ANALYSIS METHODS Slide No. 27 Risk Terminology (cont’d) ̈ Safety (cont’d) Table 2. (cont’d) Risk Perception 29 2 521 Skiing 11 920 Contraceptives 1 029 19Swimming 91918Electric ... by: n 2 paths Failure = (7) CHAPTER 2. RISK ANALYSIS METHODS Slide No. 26 Risk Terminology (cont’d) ̈ Safety (cont’d) Table 2. (cont’d) Risk Perception 25 13...

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... Civil and Environmental Engineering CHAPTER 1 CHAPMAN HALL/CRC Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics Risk Analysis for Engineering Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University ... current knowledge state 2. 2 .2. Unknowns Incompleteness in kind .2. 2.1. Absence Incomplete knowledge due to absence or uncertainty .2. 2. Incompleteness Bias and distortion...

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... J. Clark School of Engineering •Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering CHAPTER 3a CHAPMAN HALL/CRC Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics Risk Analysis for Engineering Department ... for existing bridge ($/yr) Failure likelihood for existing bridge Failure consequences for existing bridge Risk Analysis Figure 6. Contributing Factors for Risk- Bas...

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... 0 .22 7848 0.156 522 0.154897 0.111 324 0.0699 92 0.0408 52 0. 022 796 0.0 123 56 0.006565 0.003439 0 .2 0 .2 0 .20 25 32 0.185507 0.1994 32 0.191108 0.16 020 5 0. 124 675 0.0 927 63 0.067037 0.0474 92 0.033174 0 .25 ... 0 .21 8354 0 .23 3188 0 .20 87 12 0 .23 8579 0 .25 6997 0 .26 8803 0 .27 675 0 .28 2311 0 .28 6318 0 .28 927 4 Normalizing 0.8 525 0.831646 0.8168 12 0.84 128 8 0.81...

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... P 21 (3) P 22 (3) P 23 (3) P 24 (3) P 25 (3) C (2, 3) 4 P 21 (4) P 22 (4) P 23 (4) P 24 (4) P 25 (4) C (2, 4) 2 s 20 5 P 21 (5) P 22 (5) P 23 (5) P 24 (5) P 25 (5) C (2, 5) R 2 6 P 21 (6) P 22 (6) ... 1 1C P 2 1C P 3 1C P 4 1C P 413 121 111 4 321 CPCPCPCPR CCCC + + + = 1 2C P 2 2C P 3 2C P 4 2C P 423 222 122 4 321 CPCPCPCPR CCCC + + + = 1...

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... Models X 1 X 2 X 3 P(X 1 ,X 2 ,X 3 ) = P(X 3 |X 1 )P(X 2 |X 1 )P(X 1 ) X 1 X 2 X 3 P(X 1 ,X 2 ,X 3 ) = P(X 3 |X 1 )P(X 1 ,X 2 ) or P(X 1 ,X 2 ,X 3 ) = P(X 3 |X 1 )P(X 1 |X 2 )P(X 2 ) Case 1 X 1 X 2 X 3 P(X 1 ,X 2 ,X 3 ) ... 1 X 1 X 2 X 3 P(X 1 ,X 2 ,X 3 ) = P(X 3 |X 1 ,X 2 )P(X 2 )P(X 1 ) X 1 X 2 X 3 P(X 1 ,X 2 ,X 3 ) = P(X 3 ,X 2 |X 1 )P(X 1 ) or P(X 1 ,X...

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... Assessment N X i i X Z σ ∂ ∂ -1.557E-01-1.980E-013. 922 E+007. 922 E-014.000E+00X 3 1.965E-0 12. 498E-014.994E+0 02. 498E-015.000E+00X 2 9.681E-011 .23 1E+009.697E-0 12. 462E-011.000E+00X 1 Directional Cosines (α) Mean Value Standard ... follows: Analytical Performance-Based Reliability Assessment Y t XX X X X X 2 12 1 2 1 1 2 2 = − − −         µ σ µ σ (15b) 5.0=t σλ ρ Y 1...

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... 38 Reliability Analysis of Systems ̈ Example 22 (cont’d) Table 26 . Data and Empirical Survivor Function, S n (t), for Component 4 for Example 22 MMM M 0.81640 020 96 720 04 0. 826 85 020 26 620 03 0.8369501986 520 02 0.8468501956 420 01 1.000000001937 Survivor ... (cont’d) 7.31474E-041.59 129 E-046 720 04 5. 723 45E-041 .28 933E-046 620 03 4.43412E-041.03504E-046 520 02 3.39908E-...

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... 10.0 40.0 25 .0 40.0 20 .0 45.0 45.0 10.0 22 .5 40.0 42. 5 45.0 1.0 25 .0 40.0 30.0 40.0 20 .0 45.0 45.0 20 .0 27 .5 40.0 42. 5 45.0 1.5 25 .0 40.0 40.0 40.0 30.0 45.0 45.0 25 .0 35.0 40.0 42. 5 45.0 2. 0 35.0 ... 10.0 40.0 12. 0 7.0 10.0 13.0 45.0 7.0 10.0 12. 0 26 .5 45.0 1.0 15.0 40.0 25 .0 9.0 20 .0 15.0 55.0 9.0 15.0 20 .0 32. 5 55.0 1.5 20 .0 40.0 28 .0 11.0 30.0 20 .0...

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... as: )})( (22 3 .2) (790.3)(750.0exp{) (27 7.131 PAR LOL 44.0 ForceWTForceWTPAR +−+ = (1) LOL = potential loss of life PAR = population at risk WT = warning time in hours, Force = forcefulness of flood water (1 for high force, 0 for low force). ... J. Clark School of Engineering •Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering CHAPTER 5b CHAPMAN HALL/CRC Risk Analysis in Engin...

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