Risk Analysis for Engineering 2 pot
Risk Analysis for Engineering 2 pot
... or Technology
CHAPTER 2. RISK ANALYSIS METHODS
Slide No. 27
Risk Terminology (cont’d)
̈ Safety (cont’d)
Table 2. (cont’d) Risk Perception
29 2 521 Skiing
11 920 Contraceptives
1 029 19Swimming
91918Electric ...
by:
n
2 paths Failure =
(7)
CHAPTER 2. RISK ANALYSIS METHODS
Slide No. 26
Risk Terminology (cont’d)
̈ Safety (cont’d)
Table 2. (cont’d) Risk Perception
25 13...
Risk Analysis for Engineering 1 potx
... Civil and Environmental Engineering
CHAPTER
1
CHAPMAN
HALL/CRC
Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics
Risk Analysis for Engineering
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University ...
current knowledge state
2. 2 .2. Unknowns
Incompleteness in kind .2. 2.1. Absence
Incomplete knowledge due to absence or uncertainty .2. 2. Incompleteness
Bias and distortion...
Risk Analysis for Engineering 3 pot
... J. Clark School of Engineering •Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
CHAPTER
3a
CHAPMAN
HALL/CRC
Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics
Risk Analysis for Engineering
Department ... for
existing bridge ($/yr)
Failure likelihood for
existing bridge
Failure consequences
for existing bridge
Risk Analysis
Figure 6. Contributing Factors for Risk-
Bas...
Risk Analysis for Engineering 6 pot
... 0 .22 7848 0.156 522 0.154897 0.111 324 0.0699 92 0.0408 52 0. 022 796 0.0 123 56 0.006565 0.003439
0 .2 0 .2 0 .20 25 32 0.185507 0.1994 32 0.191108 0.16 020 5 0. 124 675 0.0 927 63 0.067037 0.0474 92 0.033174
0 .25 ... 0 .21 8354 0 .23 3188 0 .20 87 12 0 .23 8579 0 .25 6997 0 .26 8803 0 .27 675 0 .28 2311 0 .28 6318 0 .28 927 4
Normalizing 0.8 525 0.831646 0.8168 12 0.84 128 8 0.81...
Risk Analysis for Engineering 13 potx
... P
21
(3) P
22
(3) P
23
(3) P
24
(3) P
25
(3) C (2, 3)
4 P
21
(4) P
22
(4) P
23
(4) P
24
(4) P
25
(4) C (2, 4)
2 s
20
5 P
21
(5) P
22
(5) P
23
(5) P
24
(5) P
25
(5) C (2, 5)
R
2
6 P
21
(6) P
22
(6) ...
1
1C
P
2
1C
P
3
1C
P
4
1C
P
413 121 111
4 321
CPCPCPCPR
CCCC
+
+
+
=
1
2C
P
2
2C
P
3
2C
P
4
2C
P
423 222 122
4 321
CPCPCPCPR
CCCC
+
+
+
=
1...
Risk Analysis for Engineering 4 docx
... Models
X
1
X
2
X
3
P(X
1
,X
2
,X
3
) = P(X
3
|X
1
)P(X
2
|X
1
)P(X
1
)
X
1
X
2
X
3
P(X
1
,X
2
,X
3
) = P(X
3
|X
1
)P(X
1
,X
2
)
or
P(X
1
,X
2
,X
3
) = P(X
3
|X
1
)P(X
1
|X
2
)P(X
2
)
Case 1
X
1
X
2
X
3
P(X
1
,X
2
,X
3
) ... 1
X
1
X
2
X
3
P(X
1
,X
2
,X
3
) = P(X
3
|X
1
,X
2
)P(X
2
)P(X
1
)
X
1
X
2
X
3
P(X
1
,X
2
,X
3
) = P(X
3
,X
2
|X
1
)P(X
1
)
or
P(X
1
,X...
Risk Analysis for Engineering 5 docx
... Assessment
N
X
i
i
X
Z
σ
∂
∂
-1.557E-01-1.980E-013. 922 E+007. 922 E-014.000E+00X
3
1.965E-0 12. 498E-014.994E+0 02. 498E-015.000E+00X
2
9.681E-011 .23 1E+009.697E-0 12. 462E-011.000E+00X
1
Directional
Cosines (α)
Mean
Value
Standard ... follows:
Analytical Performance-Based
Reliability Assessment
Y
t
XX
X
X
X
X
2
12
1
2
1
1
2
2
=
−
−
−
µ
σ
µ
σ
(15b)
5.0=t
σλ ρ
Y
1...
Risk Analysis for Engineering 7 pps
... 38
Reliability Analysis of Systems
̈ Example 22 (cont’d)
Table 26 . Data and Empirical Survivor Function, S
n
(t), for Component 4
for Example 22
MMM
M
0.81640 020 96 720 04
0. 826 85 020 26 620 03
0.8369501986 520 02
0.8468501956 420 01
1.000000001937
Survivor ... (cont’d)
7.31474E-041.59 129 E-046 720 04
5. 723 45E-041 .28 933E-046 620 03
4.43412E-041.03504E-046 520 02
3.39908E-...
Risk Analysis for Engineering 8 docx
... 10.0 40.0 25 .0 40.0 20 .0 45.0 45.0 10.0 22 .5 40.0 42. 5 45.0
1.0 25 .0 40.0 30.0 40.0 20 .0 45.0 45.0 20 .0 27 .5 40.0 42. 5 45.0
1.5 25 .0 40.0 40.0 40.0 30.0 45.0 45.0 25 .0 35.0 40.0 42. 5 45.0
2. 0 35.0 ... 10.0 40.0 12. 0 7.0 10.0 13.0 45.0 7.0 10.0 12. 0 26 .5 45.0
1.0 15.0 40.0 25 .0 9.0 20 .0 15.0 55.0 9.0 15.0 20 .0 32. 5 55.0
1.5 20 .0 40.0 28 .0 11.0 30.0 20 .0...
Risk Analysis for Engineering 9 doc
... as:
)})( (22 3 .2) (790.3)(750.0exp{) (27 7.131
PAR
LOL
44.0
ForceWTForceWTPAR +−+
=
(1)
LOL = potential loss of life
PAR = population at risk
WT = warning time in hours, Force = forcefulness of flood water (1 for high force, 0 for low force). ... J. Clark School of Engineering •Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
CHAPTER
5b
CHAPMAN
HALL/CRC
Risk Analysis in Engin...
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