Ecological Modeling in Risk Assessment - Chapter 1 pps

... of expressing risk from the output of a population model are discussed later in this chapter (see Steps in Ecological Modeling for a Chemical Risk Assessment, Define Ecological Modeling Objectives). 15 74CH 01. fm ... in the United States of America 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 Printed on acid-free paper Library of Congress Cataloging -in- Publication Data Ecological modeli...

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... consisting of population submodels run in parallel and linked by informational constraints (Sturtevant and Heath 19 95). The model divides Lake Erie into three distinct basins. Within each basin, ... LEEM was initiated by the International Joint Commission to aid in anticipating the effects of declining nutrient loading, invasion of zebra mussels, loading of toxic organic contaminant...

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... of the first two (Table 5 .1) . These include: • Deterministic age- or stage-based matrix models (Caswell 20 01) • Stochastic age- or stage-based matrix models (Caswell 20 01) • RAMAS ® * Age, Stage, ... it. Relevance — HIGH — Possible endpoints include expected population size (age- or stage-specific), risk of decline, risk of extinction, and expected crossing time (the time at which t...

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... Occupancy-incidence function, a model for determining the occupancy status of habitat patches (Hanski 19 94; Hanski and Gilpin 19 91) • Occupancy-state transition, a model for predicting the transitions ... Gilpin and Hanski (19 91) , Breininger et al. (in press), and Akçakaya and Sjögren-Gulve (2000). We review two occupancy-type models and four software platforms for spatially structu...

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... (Lotka 19 24; Volterra 19 26; Watt 19 59; Holling 19 59, 19 66; Ivlev 19 61; Hassell and Varley 19 69; Gallopin 19 71; DeAngelis et al. 19 75; Arditi and Ginzburg 19 89) • Population-dynamic food-chain models ... between a single predator species and a single prey species Lotka (19 24); Volterra (19 26); Watt (19 59); Holling (19 59, 19 66); Ivlev (19 61) ; Hassel and Varley...

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... succulents) Semi-arid rangeland in Texas and Colorado; user-defined Hanson et al. (19 88) Island Multi-timescale community dynamics User-defined avian species User-defined Russell et al. (19 95) Nested ... developing silvicultural prescriptions, evaluating management scenar - ios, updating inventory information, and providing input to forest planning models (USDA 19 99 and referenc...

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... modeling (Nestler 20 01, pers. comm.). The modeling strategy inherent in CEL HYBRID has subtle problems in maintaining conser- vation when any sources or sinks are present and a problem with inflation ... watershed model comprising ecological and economic systems (Voinov et al. 19 99a,b; Institute for Ecological Economics 2000) 15 74CH 11. fm Page 14 9 Tuesday, November 26, 20...

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... discrete or continuous- time) and deterministic life-history matrix models are most appropriate for screening-level ecolog - ical risk assessments (Table 13 .1) . Some simple food-web models, founded ... development and use are shown in Tables 13 .2 through 13 .7. Toxicity extrapolation models are intended mainly for use in screening-level risk assessments and for developing...

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... INVESTMENT TRADE-OFFS Investments in enhancing the use of ecological models in environmental decision-making involve three trade-offs represented by the diamond-shaped boxes in Figure 14 .1 (Ginzburg ... limiting factor. The third trade-off is between integrating existing models and creating new models (Fig- ure 14 .1) . Integrating existing models results in models with enhan...

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... assessing the significance of estimated risks initially expressed in terms of individual-level end - points. In this mode, ecological models aid in translating risks for individual-level endpoints ... cost-effective approach for addressing many risk assessment issues (Ferson et al. 19 96; Barnthouse 19 98). Indeed, incorporation of simple, scalar population modeling int...

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