Property Estate Modelling and Forecasting 13 pdf

... modelled. 76 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting ● There are bound to be random outside influences on y that, again, cannot be modelled. For example, natural disasters could affect real estate performance ... estimation, and is discussed in detail in this and subsequent chapters. x y Figure 4.2 Scatter plot of two variables with a line of best fit chosen by eye 102 Real Estate...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... that the estimated line, in this case, is 122 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting landlords push for higher rents to cover inflation and expenses) and V t−1 is the vacancy rate (in per cent) in ... tests can be constructed in several ways, and the precise approach to constructing the 126 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting in employment and financial and business s...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 00:20

... autocorrelation function does not have to be monotonically decreasing and may change sign. 256 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting Table 8.5 Actual and forecast cap rates including seasonal dummies Forecast Actual ... autocorrelation function. 240 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 acf and pacf lag,s 12 345678910 acf pacf Figu...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 00:20

... alternative approach to dealing with residual 160 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting two, three or even four years. Hence lagged economic, real estate and financial variables (independent variables) ... much more explanatory power over and above the original regressors. 154 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting the alternative of first-order serial correlation, and if...

Ngày tải lên: 22/06/2014, 17:20

... increasingly in real estate modelling; ● formats that forecasting can take for broader purposes; and ● the need to combine top-down with bottom-up forecasting. Real estate modelling and forecasting constitute ... real estate markets during the 1997 crisis, Journal of Property Investment and Finance 22(5), 401 13. Wyatt, P. (2007) Property Valuation, Oxford, Basil Bl...

Ngày tải lên: 22/06/2014, 18:20

... study 411 13 Real estate forecasting in practice 414 13. 1 Reasons to intervene in forecasting and to use judgement 415 13. 2 How do we intervene in and adjust model-based forecasts? 418 13. 3 Issues ... fields of economics and finance, and conduct forecasting. We hope that the book achieves this aspiration. Chris Brooks and Sotiris Tsolacos, April 2009 4 Real Estate Mo...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... have zero mean and unit variance by subtracting its mean and dividing by its standard deviation. 54 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting coefficient, is often denoted ρ x,y , and is calculated ... chapter. 44 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting transacted in the last quarter. In these cases, having 2, 013. 5 workers or 6.7 units traded would not make sense. 3.1.5 Cardi...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... properties (for example, to be stationary – see chapter 12) and the computation of formal tests (see chapter 11). 192 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting samples. The Cochrane–Orcutt procedure is ... 1; at the second step, obser- vations 1 to k +2 are used; and so on; at the final step, observations 1 to T 196 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting There is also an argumen...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... office tenant demand, the ratio of government employment over the sum of the financial, insurance and real estate and service office tenants and the level of occupied stock. McGough and Tsolacos (2002), ... of the previous year; 234 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting so that the roots are z = 1,z = 2/3 and z = 2. Only one of these lies out- side the unit circle, and henc...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... real estate In the real estate literature, ARMA models are used mainly for short-term forecasting and to provide a benchmark by which to judge structural models 264 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting For ... relatively slowly, and this is exactly what is observed here in figure 8.3. Again, as expected for an AR(1), only the first pacf 250 Real Estate Modelling and Fo...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20