Property Estate Modelling and Forecasting 9 docx

... 167 slope 74, 79, 92 , 94 small-sample problems 2 29, 390 smoothness 13, 67, 152–3, 161, 199 specific-to-general modelling 187 standard deviations 48 9, 54, 57–64 standard errors 60–4, 88 93 stationarity difference ... 251–7 securitised real estate 258 9, 282, 344–5, 385 shocks 2 39, 352–6, 361, 3 69 73, 378 sign predictions 288 9, 299 , 301 significance level 59 64, 95 –101, 124 sim...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... %) (euros) (index) (%) (%)(%) (%) 0 198 0 198 1 198 3 198 5 198 7 198 9 199 1 199 3 199 5 199 7 199 9 2001 2003 2005 2007 198 1 198 3 198 5 198 7 198 9 199 1 199 3 199 5 199 7 199 9 2001 2003 2005 2007 198 1 198 3 198 5 198 7 198 9 199 1 199 3 199 5 199 7 199 9 2001 2003 2005 2007 198 3 198 6 198 9 199 2 199 5 199 8 2001 2004 2007 198 0 198 3 198 6 198...

Ngày tải lên: 22/06/2014, 17:20

... the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) until 4Q98. They use the 3Q96 NIESR forecast for 199 6H2, the 1Q97 for 199 7H1 and the 3Q97 for 199 7H2. For the remaining three periods ... (‘Treasury Survey’) in April 199 9. The April 199 9 issue is chosen to correspond to the publication date of the IPF sur- vey from which the consensus views for 199 9 and 2000 are take...

Ngày tải lên: 22/06/2014, 18:20

... 10.1. 320 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 7,000 6,000 5,000 Actual Simulated 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 197 8 198 0 198 2 198 4 198 6 198 8 199 0 199 2 199 4 199 6 199 8 Figure 10.1 Actual values and historical ... industrial rents 18,000 Simulated Actual 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 197 8 198 0 198 2 198 4 198 6 198 8 199 0 199 2 199 4 199 6...

Ngày tải lên: 22/06/2014, 18:20

... this literature and the reader is referred to sources such as Ball, Lizieri and MacGregor ( 199 8) and Di Pasquale and Wheaton ( 199 6) and the references therein. A simple framework of the real estate market ... forecasts of all -property rents 296 9. 14 Evaluation of two-year-ahead forecasts of all -property total returns 297 9. 15 Mean forecast errors for the changes in ren...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... Tokyo 200 120 100 80 60 60 40 20 0 −20 −40 −60 40 20 0 1Q93 197 1 197 4 197 7 198 0 198 3 198 6 198 9 199 2 199 5 199 8 2001 2004 2007 1Q96 1Q 99 1Q02 3Q03 3Q06 1Q05 3Q94 3Q97 3Q00 0 1Q78 1Q80 1Q82 1Q84 1Q86 1Q88 1Q90 1Q92 1Q94 1Q96 1Q98 1Q00 1Q02 1Q04 1Q06 Figure ... −3.7 −2.0 199 3 5.8 −0.1 −2.5 −0.1 199 4 3.4 2.0 −0.7 2.0 199 5 −0.7 −2.0 0.8 2.1 199 6 −2.5 7.3 2.6 2.6 199 7...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... (yoy%) 20 15 10 5 −5 −10 −1 −2 −3 −15 −20 −25 197 9 198 1 198 3 198 5 198 7 198 9 199 1 199 3 199 5 199 7 199 9 2001 2003 2005 197 9 198 1 198 3 198 5 198 7 198 9 199 1 199 3 199 5 199 7 199 9 2001 2003 2005 0 (a) Real office ... or financial and business services employment) receive empirical support as a direct or indirect driver of office rents (see Giussani, Hsia an...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... %) (euros) (index) (%) (%)(%) (%) 0 198 0 198 1 198 3 198 5 198 7 198 9 199 1 199 3 199 5 199 7 199 9 2001 2003 2005 2007 198 1 198 3 198 5 198 7 198 9 199 1 199 3 199 5 199 7 199 9 2001 2003 2005 2007 198 1 198 3 198 5 198 7 198 9 199 1 199 3 199 5 199 7 199 9 2001 2003 2005 2007 198 3 198 6 198 9 199 2 199 5 199 8 2001 2004 2007 198 0 198 3 198 6 198...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... B Fitted Actual Fitted 30 20 10 −10 −20 −30 0 198 2 198 4 198 6 198 8 199 0 199 2 199 4 199 6 199 8 2000 2002 2004 2006 198 1 198 3 198 5 198 7 198 9 199 1 199 3 199 5 199 7 199 9 2001 2003 2005 2007 (%) (%) 30 Model A Model B 20 10 −10 −20 0 198 1 198 3 198 5 198 7 198 9 199 1 199 3 199 5 199 7 199 9 2001 2003 2005 2007 (%) Figure ... 203 30 20 10 −10 −20 −30 0 A...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... real estate indices and derive a series that starts in January 196 9 and ends in February 199 9. For Australia, they take the Listed Property Trust Index from January 197 3 to February 199 9. The ... SBIC 1,1 −1 .94 −1.87 1,2 −1 .95 −1.85 1,3 −1 .98 −1. 89 1,4 −1 .97 −1.83 2,1 −1 .92 −1.83 2,2 −1 .92 −1.80 2,3 −1 .95 −1.81 2,4 −1 .93 −1.77 3,1 −1 .97 −1.85 3,2 −1 .95 −1.81 3,3 −2.18...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20