Property Estate Modelling and Forecasting 7 pptx

... observes that, in Cointegration in real estate markets 411 115 Actual Forecast 114 113 112 111 110 109 108 1 07 Jan. 07 Feb. 07 Mar. 07 Apr. 07 May. 07 Jun. 07 Jul. 07 Figure 12.12 Ex post VECM predictions 12.10 ... Intercept – 0.06 −0.02 −1.45 −2 .76 – 0.80 −0.13 – Trend – – 0.00 Trend – – 0.00 –– 2.45 –– 0.60 AS t−1 0.00 −0.02 −0. 07 AS t−1 −0. 87 −0. 87 −0.88 0 .74 − 1.41 −...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... 0.44 0.80 0. 57 0.51 0 .72 DW 1.81 2.08 1.82 1.82 2.12 2.01 RSS 1,383.86 992.91 209.81 1,460.02 904. 87 289.66 Sample 1982–20 07 1982–94 1995–20 07 1981–20 07 1981–94 1995–20 07 T 26 13 13 27 14 13 F -statistic ... B Fitted Actual Fitted 30 20 10 −10 −20 −30 0 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1981 1983 1985 19 87 1989 1991 1993 1995 19 97 1999 2001 20...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 00:20

... Forecast Dec. 06 −0.02 27 −0.0100 −0.0400 −0.0100 Jan. 07 0. 071 8 0.0200 0.2000 0.0800 Feb. 07 −0.0355 −0.00 67 0.0100 −0.0 579 −0.0400 0.0 976 −0.0100 0.0 470 Mar. 07 −0.0359 0.0030 0. 070 0 0.0186 −0.1600 ... 0.0800 Feb. 07 −0.0355 −0.00 67 0.0100 −0.0 579 −0.0400 −0.0100 0.0 470 Mar. 07 −0.0359 0.0065 0. 070 0 0.0084 −0.1600 −0.0900 −0.0580 Apr. 07 −0.00 57 −0.0030 −0.0500 −0....

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... MacGregor and White, 2002). Employment in business and finance is a proxy for business conditions among firms occupying office space and their demand for office 98 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting t 20;10% =±1 .72 5. ... required and one can be more confident that the results 84 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 20 (yoy %) Actual Fitted (%) 15 10 5 0 1 979 1981 19...

Ngày tải lên: 22/06/2014, 17:20

... 5. 37 −0.098 2Q 07 5.25 5.63 0.253 3Q 07 5. 07 5.32 −0.308 4Q 07 5.28 5.31 −0.004 Forecast period 1Q06–4Q06 4Q05 5.96 5.96 1Q06 5.89 5.85 −0.1 07 2Q06 5. 87 6.14 0.290 3Q06 5.50 5. 87 −0. 277 4Q06 5. 47 ... period 1Q 07 4Q 07 4Q06 5. 47 5. 47 1Q 07 5.25 5.42 −0.053 2Q 07 5.25 5.44 0.021 3Q 07 5. 07 5.38 −0.061 4Q 07 5.28 5.34 −0.0 37 Forecast period 1Q06–4Q06 4Q05 5.96 5.96...

Ngày tải lên: 22/06/2014, 18:20

... in real estate 5 1.5 What do we model and forecast in real estate? 6 1.6 Model categorisation for real estate forecasting 8 1 .7 Why real estate forecasting? 9 1.8 Econometrics in real estate, ... rents 202 7. 5 Tests for first- and second-order serial correlation 205 7. 6 White’s test for heteroscedasticity 206 7. 7 RESET results 2 07 7.8 Chow test results for regression m...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... 2.0 −0 .7 2.0 1995 −0 .7 −2.0 0.8 2.1 1996 −2.5 7. 3 2.6 2.6 19 97 5.3 7. 1 3.4 4 .7 1998 6.2 10.1 4.0 5.4 1999 10.4 9.5 4.9 5.6 2000 11.1 11 .7 5.3 5 .7 2001 11.3 5.4 5.8 7. 1 2002 4.0 5.6 6.2 7. 3 2003 ... correction and we would divide by N rather than N − 1. Real estate analysis: statistical tools 69 25 20 15 10 5 0 –5 –10 –15 47 931 139 185 231 277 323 369 415 461 5 07 5...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... modelled. 76 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting ● There are bound to be random outside influences on y that, again, cannot be modelled. For example, natural disasters could affect real estate ... (yoy%) 20 15 10 5 −5 −10 −1 −2 −3 −15 −20 −25 1 979 1981 1983 1985 19 87 1989 1991 1993 1995 19 97 1999 2001 2003 2005 1 979 1981 1983 1985 19 87 1989 1991 1993 1995 19 97 1999 200...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... %) (euros) (index) (%) (%)(%) (%) 0 1980 1981 1983 1985 19 87 1989 1991 1993 1995 19 97 1999 2001 2003 2005 20 07 1981 1983 1985 19 87 1989 1991 1993 1995 19 97 1999 2001 2003 2005 20 07 1981 1983 1985 19 87 1989 1991 1993 1995 19 97 1999 2001 2003 2005 20 07 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 20 07 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 20 07 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 19...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... below. ˆ y = 6. 176 7 +49.458 inflation R 2 = 0. 47 ˆ y = 4.1 572 +0.5691 long-term government bond R 2 = 0. 27 ˆ y = 5.5034 + 0.4612 short-term interest rates R 2 = 0 .76 ˆ y = 7. 91 97 +−0.1 176 rent R 2 = ... Bera–Jarque test) and the form of the equation with the RESET test. Normality test: BJ = 33  0.15 2 6 + (3.42 − 3) 2 24  = 0. 37 222 Real Estate Modelling and Forecast...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20