Property Estate Modelling and Forecasting 5 docx

... 311, 339, 352 explanatory 73, 75, 96, 109–12 irrelevant 130–2, 188, 242 macroeconomic 316, 357 omission of 129–30, 152 , 161, 219 ordering of 354 , 360 random 52 , 54 5, 89 slope dummy 253 5 variance–covariance ... process 228– 35 error term 2 35 White’s correction 144, 158 White’s test 140–2 Wold’s decomposition theorem 263 5 yield corporate bond 3 45 6, 349, 351 , 356 dividend 162...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... %) (euros) (index) (%) (%)(%) (%) 0 1980 1981 1983 19 85 1987 1989 1991 1993 19 95 1997 1999 2001 2003 20 05 2007 1981 1983 19 85 1987 1989 1991 1993 19 95 1997 1999 2001 2003 20 05 2007 1981 1983 19 85 1987 1989 1991 1993 19 95 1997 1999 2001 2003 20 05 2007 1983 1986 1989 1992 19 95 1998 2001 2004 2007 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 19 95 1998 2001 2004 2007 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 19...

Ngày tải lên: 22/06/2014, 17:20

... 18.88 356 .39 17.98 53 4. 45 −12.37 66.10 2007 3.48 −17 .56 21.04 21.04 442 .55 12.11 308.24 −12.37 251 .22 Sum of column 89.46 89.46 1786.12 54 4 .59 3236.01 426.21 Forecast periods 5 5 5 5 5 5 Average ... 5. 32 28.32 12.11 3.39 −12.37 251 .22 Sum of column 11. 25 18.89 121.19 54 4 .59 57 2 .54 426.11 Forecast periods 5 5 5 5 5 5 Average of column 2. 25 3.78 24.24 108.92...

Ngày tải lên: 22/06/2014, 18:20

... 1,017 .5 2Q 05 −0.40 76,896 90,499 6.3 21,410 110 20, 055 106 1,9 15 1,0 15. 5 3Q 05 −0.31 76, 656 90 ,56 4 6.3 21 ,51 7 107 20, 158 103 1,920 984.9 4Q 05 −0.26 76, 453 90,488 6.3 21,622 1 05 20,260 102 1,9 25 954 .5 1Q06 ... identified. 326 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 110,000 1 05, 000 Actual (in 20 05 prices) Equilibrium 100,000 95, 000 90,000 85, 000 80,000 75,...

Ngày tải lên: 22/06/2014, 18:20

... in real estate 5 1 .5 What do we model and forecast in real estate? 6 1.6 Model categorisation for real estate forecasting 8 1.7 Why real estate forecasting? 9 1.8 Econometrics in real estate, ... to real data and problems in real estate. 2 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 1.1 Motivation for this book The complexity of the real estate market, its linkages to...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... correction and we would divide by N rather than N − 1. Real estate analysis: statistical tools 69 25 20 15 10 5 0 5 –10 – 15 47 931 139 1 85 231 277 323 369 4 15 461 50 7 55 8 59 9 6 45 691 737 783 829 8 75 ... −2.0 1993 5. 8 −0.1 −2 .5 −0.1 1994 3.4 2.0 −0.7 2.0 19 95 −0.7 −2.0 0.8 2.1 1996 −2 .5 7.3 2.6 2.6 1997 5. 3 7.1 3.4 4.7 1998 6.2 10.1 4.0 5. 4 1999 10.4 9 ....

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... analysis 81 25 (yoy%) (yoy%) 20 15 10 5 5 −10 −1 −2 −3 − 15 −20 − 25 1979 1981 1983 19 85 1987 1989 1991 1993 19 95 1997 1999 2001 2003 20 05 1979 1981 1983 19 85 1987 1989 1991 1993 19 95 1997 1999 2001 2003 20 05 0 (a) ... estimation, and is discussed in detail in this and subsequent chapters. x y Figure 4.2 Scatter plot of two variables with a line of best fit chosen by e...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... %) (euros) (index) (%) (%)(%) (%) 0 1980 1981 1983 19 85 1987 1989 1991 1993 19 95 1997 1999 2001 2003 20 05 2007 1981 1983 19 85 1987 1989 1991 1993 19 95 1997 1999 2001 2003 20 05 2007 1981 1983 19 85 1987 1989 1991 1993 19 95 1997 1999 2001 2003 20 05 2007 1983 1986 1989 1992 19 95 1998 2001 2004 2007 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 19 95 1998 2001 2004 2007 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 19...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... OFSg t 69.41 OFSg t 2 −19. 35 OFSg t 2 − 15. 21 VAC t−1 × OFSg t −22.34 VAC t × OFSg t −1.73 R 2 0.164 0.207 T 26 27 r 55 Computed χ 2 (r) χ 2 (5) = 4.26 χ 2 (5) = 5. 59 Critical at 5% χ 2 (5) = 11.07 Notes: ... premium and depreciation rate are held constant, with the respective values of 0.0 35 (3 .5 per cent) and 0.0 25 (2 .5 per cent). ● The expense ratio, to our understa...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... 1Q07–4Q07 4Q06 5. 47 5. 47 1Q07 5. 25 5.42 −0. 053 2Q07 5. 25 5.44 0.021 3Q07 5. 07 5. 38 −0.061 4Q07 5. 28 5. 34 −0.037 Forecast period 1Q06–4Q06 4Q 05 5.96 5. 96 1Q06 5. 89 5. 95 −0.011 2Q06 5. 87 5. 95 −0.002 3Q06 5. 50 ... 5. 47 1Q07 5. 25 5.37 −0.098 2Q07 5. 25 5.63 0. 253 3Q07 5. 07 5. 32 −0.308 4Q07 5. 28 5. 31 −0.004 Forecast period 1Q06–4Q06 4Q 05 5.96...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20