Property Valuation Modeling and Forecasting 8 potx
Property Valuation Modeling and Forecasting_8 potx
... −5.43 −5. 38 −4 .84 −4 .86 −4 .84
RENT
t−3
0 .85 0.77 0.74 RENT
t−3
0.32 0.31 0.29
4.52 4. 08 3. 98 2.94 2.79 2.61
RENT
t−4
−0.32 −0.22 −0.20
−2 .89 −1.93 −1.69
Critical 5% −1.95 −2.91 −3. 48 −1.95 ... trend
process
15
10
5
0
–5
–10
–15
–20
Phi = 1
Phi = 0 .8
Phi = 0
1 53 105 209 261 313 417 521 573 677 784 83 3 88 5157 365 469 625 729 937 989
Figure 12.6
Autoregressive
processes...
Property Valuation Modeling and Forecasting_3 pptx
... table 7 .8.
The calculations are as follows.
Model A: F-test =
1 383 .86 − (992.91 + 209 .81 )
(992.91 + 209 .81 )
×
26 − 6
3
= 1.00
Model B: F-test =
1460.02 − (904 .87 + 289 .66)
(904 .87 + 289 .66)
×
27 ... −6 .81 −1 .8 (0. 08) 5.06 0 .86 (0.40)
VAC
t−1
−3.13 −2.5 (0.02) – –
VAC
t
––−2.06 −2.9 (0.01)
OFSg
t
3.71 3.2 (0.01) 3 .83 2.6 (0.02)
Adjusted R
2
0.53 0.57
DW statistic 1.94 1.91
S...
Property Valuation Modeling and Forecasting_4 pdf
... level.
1.2
Actual
Fitted
0.7
0.2
(%)
1Q79
1Q81
1Q83
1Q85
1Q87
1Q89
1Q91
1Q93
1Q95
1Q97
1Q99
1Q01
1Q03
1Q05
1Q07
−0.3
−0 .8
−1.3
−1 .8
Figure 8. 12
Actual and fitted
values for cap rates
in first differences
Interestingly, both AIC and SBIC ... 8. 1 Selecting the ARMA specification for cap rates
Order of AR, MA terms AIC SBIC
1,1 −1.94 −1 .87
1,2 −1.95 −1 .85
1,3 −1. 98 −1 .89
1,4 −1....
Property Valuation Modeling and Forecasting_6 doc
... 88 .24 84 .32 92. 18 88. 44 89 .15 80 .03 87 .44
Long-term mean 209.55 163.42 139 .88 137.20 139. 98 143.91 150.20 154 .84
Random walk 1 98. 16 132 .86 123.71 149. 78 132.94 1 48. 79 149.62 1 58. 13
during the ... 154 .84
Random walk 1 38. 16 132 .86 162.95 1 78. 34 184 .43 196.55 202.22 1 98. 42
(b) CB Hillier Parker rents series
VAR(1) 78. 69 117. 28 170.41 236.70 360.34 467.90 6...
Property Valuation Modeling and Forecasting_9 ppt
... %)
1Q07 85 .5 156.4 0 .8 0 .83
2Q07 87 .5 157.2 0 .8 2.34
3Q07 89 .1 1 58. 2 1.0 1 .83
4Q07 89 .7 159.2 −2.95 1.0 0.67
1Q 08 90.1 160.0 −2. 98 0 .8 0.440 0.49
2Q 08 90.3 160 .8 −3.34 0 .8 0.115 0.13
3Q 08 90.9 ... −3.17 0 .8 0.640 0.71
4Q 08 91.5 162.4 −3.02 0 .8 0.625 0.69
1Q09 91.6 163.2 −3.39 0 .8 0.1 18 0.13
2Q09 91 .8 164.0 −3.72 0 .8 0.151 0.16
3Q09 92.0 164.9 −4.0...
Property Valuation Modeling and Forecasting_10 doc
... 259, 271, 287 , 334, 437 8
unbiasedness 88 , 3 08, 313
uncertainty 10, 57, 88 , 90, 213–14, 379, 424, 439
underlying trend 13, 242
unit root process 373, 377 83
unit roots, testing for 3 78 81
unparameterised ... 104–7
regression approach 388
slope 74, 79, 92, 94
standard error estimator 88 –93
out-of-sample, see forecasting
outliers 46, 48, 169–71, 188
overconfidence 423
overfitting...
Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting Hardcover_1 potx
... residual and
the fitted value 78
4.5 Plot of the two variables 81
4.6 Scatter plot of rent and employment
growth 82
4.7 No observations close to the y-axis 83
4 .8 Actual and fitted values and residuals
for ... demand for modelling and forecasting work is expanding rapidly,
with a direct requirement for insightful and well-informed processes to be
in place. The growing num...
Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting Hardcover_8 potx
... B
Fitted
Actual
Fitted
30
20
10
−10
−20
−30
0
1 982
1 984
1 986
1 988
1990
1992
1994
1996
19 98
2000
2002
2004
2006
1 981
1 983
1 985
1 987
1 989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
(%)
(%)
30
Model A
Model B
20
10
−10
−20
0
1 981
1 983
1 985
1 987
1 989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
(%)
Figure ... 203
30
20
10
−10
−20
−30
0
Actual
(a) Actual and fitte...
Financial Forecasting, Risk, and Valuation: Accounting for the Future potx
... in Penman and Sougiannis (19 98) and Francis, Olsson, and Oswald
(2000), compares valuation errors of accrual-based valuation models and cash flow
models against observed prices, and broadly ... accounting best facilitates forecasting
and the valuation. Cash accounting and accrual accounting can been compared on their
utility for forecasting and valuation, and s...
Mechatronic Systems, Simulation, Modeling and Control 2012 Part 8 potx
... standard deviation of 8. 5 mm, 1.4 cm mean for
Y with a standard deviation of 8. 6 mm, 2.5 mm/s mean for
X
V
with a standard deviation
of 1.9 mm/s and 3.1 mm/s mean for
Y
V
with a standard ...
MechatronicSystems,Simulation,Modelling and Control2 18
a)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
1.4
1.6
1 .8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2 .8
t (sec)
X
c
(m)
Transversal CoM Position
Actual
Comma...
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