Property Valuation Modeling and Forecasting 8 potx

... −5.43 −5. 38 −4 .84 −4 .86 −4 .84 RENT t−3 0 .85 0.77 0.74 RENT t−3 0.32 0.31 0.29 4.52 4. 08 3. 98 2.94 2.79 2.61 RENT t−4 −0.32 −0.22 −0.20 −2 .89 −1.93 −1.69 Critical 5% −1.95 −2.91 −3. 48 −1.95 ... trend process 15 10 5 0 –5 –10 –15 –20 Phi = 1 Phi = 0 .8 Phi = 0 1 53 105 209 261 313 417 521 573 677 784 83 3 88 5157 365 469 625 729 937 989 Figure 12.6 Autoregressive processes...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 12:20

... table 7 .8. The calculations are as follows. Model A: F-test = 1 383 .86 − (992.91 + 209 .81 ) (992.91 + 209 .81 ) × 26 − 6 3 = 1.00 Model B: F-test = 1460.02 − (904 .87 + 289 .66) (904 .87 + 289 .66) × 27 ... −6 .81 −1 .8 (0. 08) 5.06 0 .86 (0.40) VAC t−1 −3.13 −2.5 (0.02) – – VAC t ––−2.06 −2.9 (0.01) OFSg t 3.71 3.2 (0.01) 3 .83 2.6 (0.02) Adjusted R 2 0.53 0.57 DW statistic 1.94 1.91 S...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 12:20

... level. 1.2 Actual Fitted 0.7 0.2 (%) 1Q79 1Q81 1Q83 1Q85 1Q87 1Q89 1Q91 1Q93 1Q95 1Q97 1Q99 1Q01 1Q03 1Q05 1Q07 −0.3 −0 .8 −1.3 −1 .8 Figure 8. 12 Actual and fitted values for cap rates in first differences Interestingly, both AIC and SBIC ... 8. 1 Selecting the ARMA specification for cap rates Order of AR, MA terms AIC SBIC 1,1 −1.94 −1 .87 1,2 −1.95 −1 .85 1,3 −1. 98 −1 .89 1,4 −1....

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 12:20

... 88 .24 84 .32 92. 18 88. 44 89 .15 80 .03 87 .44 Long-term mean 209.55 163.42 139 .88 137.20 139. 98 143.91 150.20 154 .84 Random walk 1 98. 16 132 .86 123.71 149. 78 132.94 1 48. 79 149.62 1 58. 13 during the ... 154 .84 Random walk 1 38. 16 132 .86 162.95 1 78. 34 184 .43 196.55 202.22 1 98. 42 (b) CB Hillier Parker rents series VAR(1) 78. 69 117. 28 170.41 236.70 360.34 467.90 6...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 12:20

... %) 1Q07 85 .5 156.4 0 .8 0 .83 2Q07 87 .5 157.2 0 .8 2.34 3Q07 89 .1 1 58. 2 1.0 1 .83 4Q07 89 .7 159.2 −2.95 1.0 0.67 1Q 08 90.1 160.0 −2. 98 0 .8 0.440 0.49 2Q 08 90.3 160 .8 −3.34 0 .8 0.115 0.13 3Q 08 90.9 ... −3.17 0 .8 0.640 0.71 4Q 08 91.5 162.4 −3.02 0 .8 0.625 0.69 1Q09 91.6 163.2 −3.39 0 .8 0.1 18 0.13 2Q09 91 .8 164.0 −3.72 0 .8 0.151 0.16 3Q09 92.0 164.9 −4.0...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 12:20

... 259, 271, 287 , 334, 437 8 unbiasedness 88 , 3 08, 313 uncertainty 10, 57, 88 , 90, 213–14, 379, 424, 439 underlying trend 13, 242 unit root process 373, 377 83 unit roots, testing for 3 78 81 unparameterised ... 104–7 regression approach 388 slope 74, 79, 92, 94 standard error estimator 88 –93 out-of-sample, see forecasting outliers 46, 48, 169–71, 188 overconfidence 423 overfitting...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 12:20

... residual and the fitted value 78 4.5 Plot of the two variables 81 4.6 Scatter plot of rent and employment growth 82 4.7 No observations close to the y-axis 83 4 .8 Actual and fitted values and residuals for ... demand for modelling and forecasting work is expanding rapidly, with a direct requirement for insightful and well-informed processes to be in place. The growing num...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... B Fitted Actual Fitted 30 20 10 −10 −20 −30 0 1 982 1 984 1 986 1 988 1990 1992 1994 1996 19 98 2000 2002 2004 2006 1 981 1 983 1 985 1 987 1 989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 (%) (%) 30 Model A Model B 20 10 −10 −20 0 1 981 1 983 1 985 1 987 1 989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 (%) Figure ... 203 30 20 10 −10 −20 −30 0 Actual (a) Actual and fitte...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... in Penman and Sougiannis (19 98) and Francis, Olsson, and Oswald (2000), compares valuation errors of accrual-based valuation models and cash flow models against observed prices, and broadly ... accounting best facilitates forecasting and the valuation. Cash accounting and accrual accounting can been compared on their utility for forecasting and valuation, and s...

Ngày tải lên: 23/03/2014, 00:20

... standard deviation of 8. 5 mm, 1.4 cm mean for Y with a standard deviation of 8. 6 mm, 2.5 mm/s mean for  X V with a standard deviation of 1.9 mm/s and 3.1 mm/s mean for  Y V with a standard ... MechatronicSystems,Simulation,Modelling and Control2 18 a) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1.4 1.6 1 .8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2 .8 t (sec) X c (m) Transversal CoM Position Actual Comma...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 11:20