Chris Brooks Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 9 pptx

... rejected the null hypothesis in favour of 170 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 25 20 15 10 (Regression residuals) 5 198 4 198 6 198 8 199 0 199 2 199 4 199 6 199 8 2000 2002 2004 2006 0 −5 −10 −15 Figure ... in which 164 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting one: the empirical model containing many lags or differenced terms is difficult to interpret and may n...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... forecasts with the realised values for only two years: 199 6 and 199 7. The regression model over-predicted by 3.6 percentage points in 199 6 and by three percent- age points in 199 7. The naive methods, ... United States, the United Kingdom and Australia and assess the improvement over 284 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting Table 9. 8 Data on real rent growth for fore...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... predeterminedness and strict exogeneity 320 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 7,000 6,000 5,000 Actual Simulated 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 197 8 198 0 198 2 198 4 198 6 198 8 199 0 199 2 199 4 199 6 199 8 Figure ... 1 ,90 9 476 .9 2Q04 −1.43 78 ,90 4 90 ,403 6.5 20 ,95 8 118 19, 592 147 1 ,90 8 686.0 3Q04 −0 .97 78,138 90 ,4 59 6.4 21,074 116 19, 721 1 29 1 ,90 7...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... 79, 111 90 ,403 5.7 21,010 130 19, 818 294 1 .96 3Q04 0.07 79, 168 90 ,4 59 4.8 21,128 118 20,111 293 1 .95 4Q04 1.17 80, 091 90 ,477 4.0 21,212 83 20,3 59 247 1.47 1Q05 2.02 81,705 90 ,563 3.6 21,302 90 ... 0. 59 2Q06 2. 89 92,873 90 , 496 1.4 21,620 90 21,314 1 69 0.64 3Q06 2.84 95 ,510 90 , 396 1.2 21,741 122 21,484 170 0.65 4Q06 2.64 98 ,027 90 ,481 1.1 21, 897 155 21,65...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... are taken from MacKinnon, Haug and Michelis ( 199 9). 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 −10 −20 −30 Jan. 90 Jan. 91 Jan. 92 Jan. 93 Jan. 94 Jan. 95 Jan. 96 Jan. 97 Jan. 98 Jan. 99 Jan. 00 Jan. 01 Jan. 02 Jan. ... 0.71 4Q08 91 .5 162.4 −3.02 0.8 0.625 0. 69 1Q 09 91.6 163.2 −3. 39 0.8 0.118 0.13 2Q 09 91.8 164.0 −3.72 0.8 0.151 0.16 3Q 09 92.0 164 .9 −4.02 0 .9 0.180 0.20 4Q...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... ( 199 2) The markets for real estate assets and space: a conceptual framework, Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association 20(2), 181 98 . ( 199 6) Urban Economics and Real Estate ... 251–7 securitised real estate 258 9, 282, 344–5, 385 shocks 2 39, 352–6, 361, 3 69 73, 378 sign predictions 288 9, 299 , 301 significance level 59 64, 95 –101, 124 s...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... the Cointegration in real estate markets 405 130 Jan. 90 =100 Asia Europe United States 120 110 100 90 80 Jan. 90 Jan. 91 Jan. 92 Jan. 93 Jan. 94 Jan. 95 Jan. 96 Jan. 97 Jan. 98 Jan. 99 Jan. 00 Jan. ... 0.71 4Q08 91 .5 162.4 −3.02 0.8 0.625 0. 69 1Q 09 91.6 163.2 −3. 39 0.8 0.118 0.13 2Q 09 91.8 164.0 −3.72 0.8 0.151 0.16 3Q 09 92.0 164 .9 −4.02 0 .9 0.180 0...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... Tokyo 200 120 100 80 60 60 40 20 0 −20 −40 −60 40 20 0 1Q93 197 1 197 4 197 7 198 0 198 3 198 6 198 9 199 2 199 5 199 8 2001 2004 2007 1Q96 1Q 99 1Q02 3Q03 3Q06 1Q05 3Q94 3Q97 3Q00 0 1Q78 1Q80 1Q82 1Q84 1Q86 1Q88 1Q90 1Q92 1Q94 1Q96 1Q98 1Q00 1Q02 1Q04 1Q06 Figure ... 7.3 2.6 2.6 199 7 5.3 7.1 3.4 4.7 199 8 6.2 10.1 4.0 5.4 199 9 10.4 9. 5 4 .9 5.6 2000 11.1 11.7 5.3 5.7 2001...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... (yoy%) 20 15 10 5 −5 −10 −1 −2 −3 −15 −20 −25 197 9 198 1 198 3 198 5 198 7 198 9 199 1 199 3 199 5 199 7 199 9 2001 2003 2005 197 9 198 1 198 3 198 5 198 7 198 9 199 1 199 3 199 5 199 7 199 9 2001 2003 2005 0 (a) Real office rents (b) Employment ... and adding ˆα will 84 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 20 (yoy %) Actual Fitted (%) 15 10 5 0 197 9 1...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... by s 2 (X  X) −1 = 0 .91 (X  X) −1 = ⎡ ⎣ 1.82 3. 19 −0 .91 3. 19 0 .91 5 .92 −0 .91 5 .92 3 .91 ⎤ ⎦ (5.15) The coefficient variances are on the diagonals, and the standard errors are found by taking the square ... (5.16) var( ˆ β 2 ) = 0 .91 ⇔ SE( ˆ β 2 ) = 0 .95 (5.17) var( ˆ β 3 ) = 3 .91 SE( ˆ β 3 ) = 1 .98 (5.18) The estimated equation would be written ˆ y = 1.10 − 4.40x 2 + 19. 8...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20