Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets by Luisa Anderloni, Maria Debora Braga and Emanuele Maria Carluccio 7 pptx

... β>0. 3 GARCH stands for generalized autoregresssive conditional heteroskedasticity, and was introduced by Bollerslev (1986, 19 87) and Engle (1982). Engle received the Nobel Prize in 2003 for his work ... [−1, 1]. For any variable x, the transformation to a variable x ∗ is given by the following formula: x ∗ = 2x max(x) − min(x) − min(x) + max(x) max(x) − min(x) (2. 17) The...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... particular point forecasts. Granger and Jeon (2002) have suggested “thick modeling” as a strategy for neural net- works, particularly for forecasting. The idea is simple and straightforward. We should ... two real numbers r 1 and r 2 from the [0, 1] interval and one random number s from a standard normal distribution. The mutated coefficient  Ω i,p is given by the following formu...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... Model Originally put forward by Kantz and Schreiber (19 97) , the distorted long- memory (DLM) model was recently analyzed for stochastic neural network approximation by Lai and Wong (2001). The ... 1.224 DM-0 ∗ — . 27 DM-1 ∗ — .25 DM-2 ∗ — .15 DM-3 ∗ — .22 DM-4 ∗ — .24 SR .77 .72 B-Ratio — .982 ∗ marginal significance levels net is slightly higher and the Hannan-Quinn informatio...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... the demand for property and investments.” With a higher inelastic supply schedule, this caused price swings, and with rising demand 186 7. Inflation and Deflation: Hong Kong and Japan 1 975 1980 ... information from Table 7. 8 gives strong support for abandoning a linear approach for understanding inflation/deflation dynamics in Japan. 7. 2.4 Out-of-Sample Performance Figure 7....

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... 0. 074 0. 074 0. 076 0.083 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2 Term 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 3 Credit history −0. 078 −0. 078 −0. 077 −0. 076 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 4 Propose −0.0 07 −0.0 07 ... in Years 234 571 0 Linear 5 .76 1 2.2 47 1.585 3.365 5.843 7. 699 Nonlinear 1. 575 2.249 2.423 2.103 1.504 1.2 07 Diebold-Mariano Tests ∗ Maturity in Years 234 571 0 DM-0 0.000 0.00...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... example, 168–182 data for, 168– 174 in-sample performance, 177 – 179 interpretation of results, 178 –182 model specification, 174 – 177 out-of-sample performance, 177 – 178 , 180 Hong Kong, volatility forecasting ... outputs in, 37 out-of-sample evaluation of, 95 predictive stochastic complexity, 100–101 stochastic chaos model, 1 17 122 thick model, 77 78 use in decision-making, 3, 1...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... bond market for confirmation. A bullish technical forecast for bonds is also a bullish technical forecast for stocks. Conversely, a bearish analysis for bonds is a bearish forecast for stocks. ... market and falling commodity markets, the spring and early summer saw surging commodity markets and a weak bond market. This surge in the CRB Index was caused mainly by strong g...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... 1955, before computers were so common, the RAND Corporation published a book entitled A Million Random Digits. It was used in selecting random trials for experimental designs and simulations (and ... prices that can be forecast based on a given information set. The only possible changes in price are random, driven by unforecastable external information. Profits occur only by chance....

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20