New Frontiers in Banking Services Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets 8 pptx

... way: x ∗ k,t = x k,t − min(x k ) max(x k ) −min(x k ) (3.13) The linear scaling function for [−1, 1], transforming a variable x k into x ∗∗ k , has the following form: x ∗∗ k,t =2· x k,t − min(x k ) max(x k ) −min(x k ) − ... Similarly, do changes in GDP have one process in recession and another in recovery? These are very important questions for forecasting and policy analysis,...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... alternative forecasts may come not from different models per se, but from bootstrapping the initial training set. As we discuss in Section 4.2 .8, bootstrapping involves resampling the original training ... Test for Nonlinear Patterns Brock, Deckert, and Scheinkman (1 987 ), further elaborated in Brock, Deckert, Scheinkman, and LeBaron (1996), propose a test for detecting nonlinea...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... estimation an expanding window. The sample size, of course, becomes larger as we move forward in time. An alternative to the expanding window is the moving window. In this case, for the first forecast ... to interpretations that make sense in terms of economic theory and give us insights into policy or better information for decision making? The goal of computational and empirica...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... and modify the network models used for estimation and forecasting performance against the linear model. I invite the reader to continue these experiments with artificial data. 120 5. Estimating ... model), forecast onevar svjdmodel new1 .m (for the stochastic volatil- ity jump diffusion model), forecast onevar markovmodel new1 .m (for the Markov regime switching model), and forecas...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... the standard deviations of the 182 7. In ation and Deflation: Hong Kong and Japan 1 986 1 988 1990 1992 1994 1996 19 98 2000 2002 −0.1 −0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 1 986 1 988 1990 1992 1994 1996 19 98 2000 ... forthcoming. Chen, Racine, and Swanson (2001) have used a ridgelet neural network for forecasting in ation in the United States. McNelis and McAdam (2004) used a thick model a...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... of Fit: Linear and Nonlinear Components, Multiple Correlation Coefficient Maturity in Years 2345710 Linear 0.965 0. 986 0.990 0. 981 0.923 0.751 Nonlinear 0. 988 0.9 78 0.947 0.913 0 .82 9 0.6 98 9.1.3 ... Maturity in Years 2345710 Mean 24.746 23 .86 4 22.799 21 .86 6 20.360 18. 891 Median 17 .87 0 18. 500 18. 900 19.000 18. 500 17.600 Std. Dev. 14.621 11.925 9.7 58 8.137 6.106 4.506 C...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... or forecast well sharp turning points in data. For this reason, we turn to nonlinear forecasting techniques. 2.2 GARCH Nonlinear Models Obviously, there are many types of nonlinear functional forms ... the input vector and the center of that unit, whereas the MLP or feedforward network computes the inner products of the inputs and the weights for that unit. Mandic and Chambers (...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20

... alternative forecasts may come not from different models per se, but from bootstrapping the initial training set. As we discuss in Section 4.2 .8, bootstrapping involves resampling the original training ... point for quite some time during the training period. Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet for avoiding the problems of local minima in nonlinear estimation. There are only str...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 09:20