New Frontiers in Banking Services Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets 8 pptx
New Frontiers in Banking Services Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets_2 ppt
... way:
x
∗
k,t
=
x
k,t
− min(x
k
)
max(x
k
) −min(x
k
)
(3.13)
The linear scaling function for [−1, 1], transforming a variable x
k
into
x
∗∗
k
, has the following form:
x
∗∗
k,t
=2·
x
k,t
− min(x
k
)
max(x
k
) −min(x
k
)
− ... Similarly, do changes in GDP have one process in recession and
another in recovery? These are very important questions for forecasting
and policy analysis,...
New Frontiers in Banking Services Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets_3 doc
... alternative forecasts may come not from different models per se, but
from bootstrapping the initial training set. As we discuss in Section 4.2 .8,
bootstrapping involves resampling the original training ... Test for Nonlinear
Patterns
Brock, Deckert, and Scheinkman (1 987 ), further elaborated in Brock,
Deckert, Scheinkman, and LeBaron (1996), propose a test for detecting
nonlinea...
New Frontiers in Banking Services Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets_4 pptx
... estimation an expanding window. The sample size, of
course, becomes larger as we move forward in time.
An alternative to the expanding window is the moving window. In this
case, for the first forecast ... to
interpretations that make sense in terms of economic theory and give us
insights into policy or better information for decision making? The goal
of computational and empirica...
New Frontiers in Banking Services Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets_5 doc
... and modify the
network models used for estimation and forecasting performance against
the linear model. I invite the reader to continue these experiments with
artificial data.
120 5. Estimating ... model), forecast
onevar svjdmodel new1 .m (for the stochastic volatil-
ity jump diffusion model), forecast
onevar markovmodel new1 .m (for the
Markov regime switching model), and forecas...
New Frontiers in Banking Services Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets_7 doc
... the standard deviations of the
182 7. In ation and Deflation: Hong Kong and Japan
1 986 1 988 1990 1992 1994 1996 19 98 2000 2002
−0.1
−0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
1 986 1 988 1990 1992 1994 1996 19 98 2000 ... forthcoming. Chen, Racine,
and Swanson (2001) have used a ridgelet neural network for forecasting
in ation in the United States. McNelis and McAdam (2004) used a thick
model a...
New Frontiers in Banking Services Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets_8 pptx
... of Fit: Linear
and Nonlinear Components, Multiple Correlation Coefficient
Maturity in Years
2345710
Linear 0.965 0. 986 0.990 0. 981 0.923 0.751
Nonlinear 0. 988 0.9 78 0.947 0.913 0 .82 9 0.6 98
9.1.3 ... Maturity in Years
2345710
Mean 24.746 23 .86 4 22.799 21 .86 6 20.360 18. 891
Median 17 .87 0 18. 500 18. 900 19.000 18. 500 17.600
Std. Dev. 14.621 11.925 9.7 58 8.137 6.106 4.506
C...
Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets by Luisa Anderloni, Maria Debora Braga and Emanuele Maria Carluccio_1 docx
... or forecast well sharp turning points in data. For
this reason, we turn to nonlinear forecasting techniques.
2.2 GARCH Nonlinear Models
Obviously, there are many types of nonlinear functional forms ... the input vector and the center of that unit,
whereas the MLP or feedforward network computes the inner products
of the inputs and the weights for that unit.
Mandic and Chambers (...
Emerging Needs and Tailored Products for Untapped Markets by Luisa Anderloni, Maria Debora Braga and Emanuele Maria Carluccio_3 pot
... alternative forecasts may come not from different models per se, but
from bootstrapping the initial training set. As we discuss in Section 4.2 .8,
bootstrapping involves resampling the original training ... point for
quite some time during the training period.
Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet for avoiding the problems of local
minima in nonlinear estimation. There are only str...
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