Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting By Chris Brooks 9 pot

... Tokyo 200 120 100 80 60 60 40 20 0 −20 −40 −60 40 20 0 1Q93 197 1 197 4 197 7 198 0 198 3 198 6 198 9 199 2 199 5 199 8 2001 2004 2007 1Q96 1Q 99 1Q02 3Q03 3Q06 1Q05 3Q94 3Q97 3Q00 0 1Q78 1Q80 1Q82 1Q84 1Q86 1Q88 1Q90 1Q92 1Q94 1Q96 1Q98 1Q00 1Q02 1Q04 1Q06 Figure ... 7.3 2.6 2.6 199 7 5.3 7.1 3.4 4.7 199 8 6.2 10.1 4.0 5.4 199 9 10.4 9. 5 4 .9 5.6 2000 11.1 11.7 5.3 5.7 2001...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... (yoy%) 20 15 10 5 −5 −10 −1 −2 −3 −15 −20 −25 197 9 198 1 198 3 198 5 198 7 198 9 199 1 199 3 199 5 199 7 199 9 2001 2003 2005 197 9 198 1 198 3 198 5 198 7 198 9 199 1 199 3 199 5 199 7 199 9 2001 2003 2005 0 (a) Real office rents (b) Employment ... and adding ˆα will 84 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 20 (yoy %) Actual Fitted (%) 15 10 5 0 197 9 1...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... 0 .91 (X  X) −1 = ⎡ ⎣ 1.82 3. 19 −0 .91 3. 19 0 .91 5 .92 −0 .91 5 .92 3 .91 ⎤ ⎦ (5.15) The coefficient variances are on the diagonals, and the standard errors are found by taking the square roots of each ... (5.16) var( ˆ β 2 ) = 0 .91 ⇔ SE( ˆ β 2 ) = 0 .95 (5.17) var( ˆ β 3 ) = 3 .91 SE( ˆ β 3 ) = 1 .98 (5.18) The estimated equation would be written ˆ y = 1.10 − 4.40x 2 + 19. 88x 3...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... %) (euros) (index) (%) (%)(%) (%) 0 198 0 198 1 198 3 198 5 198 7 198 9 199 1 199 3 199 5 199 7 199 9 2001 2003 2005 2007 198 1 198 3 198 5 198 7 198 9 199 1 199 3 199 5 199 7 199 9 2001 2003 2005 2007 198 1 198 3 198 5 198 7 198 9 199 1 199 3 199 5 199 7 199 9 2001 2003 2005 2007 198 3 198 6 198 9 199 2 199 5 199 8 2001 2004 2007 198 0 198 3 198 6 198...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... B Fitted Actual Fitted 30 20 10 −10 −20 −30 0 198 2 198 4 198 6 198 8 199 0 199 2 199 4 199 6 199 8 2000 2002 2004 2006 198 1 198 3 198 5 198 7 198 9 199 1 199 3 199 5 199 7 199 9 2001 2003 2005 2007 (%) (%) 30 Model A Model B 20 10 −10 −20 0 198 1 198 3 198 5 198 7 198 9 199 1 199 3 199 5 199 7 199 9 2001 2003 2005 2007 (%) Figure ... 203 30 20 10 −10 −20 −30 0 A...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) until 4Q98. They use the 3Q96 NIESR forecast for 199 6H2, the 1Q97 for 199 7H1 and the 3Q97 for 199 7H2. For the remaining three periods ... the United Kingdom and Australia and assess the improvement over 292 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting employment at lags 1 and 3), new construction lagged five period...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... 79, 111 90 ,403 5.7 21,010 130 19, 818 294 1 .96 3Q04 0.07 79, 168 90 ,4 59 4.8 21,128 118 20,111 293 1 .95 4Q04 1.17 80, 091 90 ,477 4.0 21,212 83 20,3 59 247 1.47 1Q05 2.02 81,705 90 ,563 3.6 21,302 90 ... 0. 59 2Q06 2. 89 92,873 90 , 496 1.4 21,620 90 21,314 1 69 0.64 3Q06 2.84 95 ,510 90 , 396 1.2 21,741 122 21,484 170 0.65 4Q06 2.64 98 ,027 90 ,481 1.1 21, 897 155 21,65...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... VAR forecasting methodology outlined in box 11.1). Assuming 394 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 50 40 30 20 10 0 2Q90 2Q93 2Q96 2Q 99 2Q02 2Q05 4Q91 4Q94 4Q97 4Q00 4Q03 4Q06 2Q90 2Q93 2Q96 2Q 99 2Q02 2Q05 4Q91 4Q94 4Q97 4Q00 4Q03 4Q06 −10 −20 −30 (a) ... 3. 29 3.27 RES t−2 −0 .99 −0 .99 −0 .99 RES t−2 −0.37 −0.37 −0.37 −5.43 −5.38 −5.31 −3.17 −3.14 −3.07 RES t−3 0.72...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... 74.3 199 5 91 8 108.3 847.6 93 .1 9. 9 1,051.1 104.7 96 .7 199 6 93 3 110.5 844.3 95 .0 9. 8 1,046 .9 106.4 96 .3 199 7 878 112.7 7 79. 1 96 .9 9.1 96 5 .9 100.1 88 .9 199 8 727 111.0 655.0 95 .5 7.6 811.5 82 .9 74.7 199 9 ... two and five. 26 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting Table 2.2 Property sales by district 199 6 199 7 199 8 199 9 2000 2001 2002 200...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 00:20

... Tokyo 200 120 100 80 60 60 40 20 0 −20 −40 −60 40 20 0 1Q93 197 1 197 4 197 7 198 0 198 3 198 6 198 9 199 2 199 5 199 8 2001 2004 2007 1Q96 1Q 99 1Q02 3Q03 3Q06 1Q05 3Q94 3Q97 3Q00 0 1Q78 1Q80 1Q82 1Q84 1Q86 1Q88 1Q90 1Q92 1Q94 1Q96 1Q98 1Q00 1Q02 1Q04 1Q06 Figure ... Frankfurt Munich 199 2 4 .9 2.6 −3.7 −2.0 199 3 5.8 −0.1 −2.5 −0.1 199 4 3.4 2.0 −0.7 2.0 199 5 −0.7 −2.0 0.8...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 00:20