Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting Hardcover 3 doc

... 7 .3 20 03 2.6 5.7 9.6 8.0 2004 3. 7 2.1 9.9 9.5 2005 0.8 4.7 10.4 10.1 2006 9.6 8.0 11.1 11.7 2007 9.9 13. 3 11 .3 13. 3 Min 3. 7 −2.0 Max 11 .3 13. 3 N 16 16 Q 1 4 .3 (4th) = 0.8 4 .3 (4th) = 2.1 Q 3 12.8 ... correction and we would divide by N rather than N − 1. Real estate analysis: statistical tools 69 25 20 15 10 5 0 –5 –10 –15 47 931 139 185 231 277 32 3 36 9 415 461 50...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... −0.94 SDUM(2Q) 0.29 3. 53 ∗∗∗ SDUM(3Q) −0.21 −2.69 ∗∗∗ AR(1) −0 .38 −1.54 AR(2) −0.27 −1.05 AR (3) −0.54 3. 23 ∗∗∗ MA(1) 0 .33 1. 43 MA(2) 0.05 0.20 MA (3) 0.71 3. 95 ∗∗∗ Adj. R 2 0 .33 Sample period 1Q79–4Q07 Note: ∗∗∗ denotes ... −1.87 1,2 −1.95 −1.85 1 ,3 −1.98 −1.89 1,4 −1.97 −1. 83 2,1 −1.92 −1. 83 2,2 −1.92 −1.80 2 ,3 −1.95 −1.81 2,4 −1. 93 −1.77 3, 1 −1.97 −1.85 3, 2 −1.95...

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... 32 3, 32 6, 33 0 derived demand 5 deterministic trend 37 5–6, 39 2 development market 6 Dickey–Fuller (DF) test 37 8–81, 38 7– 93 augmented (ADF) 38 0, 38 7– 93 critical values 37 9 differencing 34 0, 37 3, ... 67, 2 93, 426, 438 Investment Property Forum (IPF) 2 93 8, 418, 425 Johansen test 39 9–4 13 KPSS test 38 1 kurtosis 51 3, 167–9 lag length 158, 197, 201, 232 3, 32...

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... 3, 790 4,149 3, 465 3, 761 3, 241 Haringey 3, 966 4,662 4,248 4, 836 4, 238 4,658 4, 534 3, 765 4, 233 3, 347 Islington 2,516 3, 2 43 3 ,34 7 3, 935 3, 075 3, 407 3, 365 2,776 2,941 2,900 Kensington and Chelsea 4,797 ... 3, 121 3, 689 3, 2 83 City of London 288 32 9 440 558 437 37 9 37 4 468 30 7 299 Hackney 2,221 2,968 3, 107 3, 266 2,840 3, 252 3, 570 2,711 3, 1...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 00:20

... by ˆ β and adding ˆα will 84 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 20 (yoy %) Actual Fitted (%) 15 10 5 0 1979 1981 19 83 1985 1987 1989 1991 19 93 1995 1997 1999 2001 20 03 2005 1979 1981 19 83 1985 1987 1989 1991 19 93 1995 1997 1999 2001 20 03 2005 −5 −10 −15 −20 (a) ... MacGregor and White, 2002). Employment in business and finance is a proxy for business conditions a...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... 13 13 27 14 13 F -statistic 1.00 1.56 Crit. F(5%) F (3, 20) at 5% ≈ 3. 10 F (3, 21) at 5% ≈ 3. 07 Notes: The dependent variable is RRg t ; cell entries are coefficients (p-values). 230 Real Estate Modelling ... distributed (the Bera–Jarque test) and the form of the equation with the RESET test. Normality test: BJ = 33  0.15 2 6 + (3. 42 − 3) 2 24  = 0 .37 214 Real Esta...

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... 533 .1 1 20 03 0.056 5.7 −18.00 −26.60 1 31 .20 39 .79 1241.4 1 2004 0.618 3. 4 − 13. 30 −22.14 1 −26.49 35 .33 935 .8 1 2005 0.8 93 0.1 3. 64 − 13. 19 1 −16. 83 −26 .38 444.0 1 2006 2 .37 8 −0.2 −4.24 4 .37 ... −F Naive 20 03 −18.01 −19. 93 1.92 1.92 3. 69 32 4 .36 39 7.20 −12 .37 31 .81 2004 − 13. 30 −16.06 2.76 2.76 7.62 176.89 257.92 −12 .37 0.88 2005 3. 64 −9.77 6. 13 6. 13 3...

Ngày tải lên: 21/06/2014, 07:20

... techniques to real data and problems in real estate. 2 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 1.1 Motivation for this book The complexity of the real estate market, its linkages to the economy and the ... study 411 13 Real estate forecasting in practice 414 13. 1 Reasons to intervene in forecasting and to use judgement 415 13. 2 How do we intervene in and...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20

... proportionate impact of 82 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting 8 6 4 2 0 0 Real rents (yoy %) Employment in FBS (yoy %) 10 20 30 −2 −4 30 −20 −10 Figure 4.6 Scatter plot of rent and employment growth relationship ... standard error of the regression (s) to calcu- late the standard error of the estimators ˆα and ˆ β. For the calculation of SE( ˆ β),wehaves = 6.97,  EFBS 2...

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... ρx 2t−1 ) +β 3 (x 3t − ρx 3t−1 ) +ρy t−1 + v t (6A.8) Expanding the brackets around the explanatory variable terms gives y t = (1 − ρ)β 1 + β 2 x 2t − ρβ 2 x 2t−1 + β 3 x 3t − ρβ 3 x 3t−1 + ρy t−1 + ... local economy and rising levels of business activity, which usually increase with 202 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting Table 7 .3 Regression models for Frankfurt rents...

Ngày tải lên: 20/06/2014, 20:20