Tóm tắt luận án Tiến sĩ Financial risk management at enterprises of the Vietnam national Coal and Mineral industries holding corporation limited

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING THUONGMAI UNIVERSITY - DAM THI THANH HUYEN FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT AT ENTERPRISES OF THE VIETNAM NATIONAL COAL AND MINERAL INDUSTRIES HOLDING CORPORATION LIMITED Major: Banking - Finance Code: 9.34.02.01 Summary of economic doctoral thesis Ha noi The work was completed at: Thuongmai University Science instructor Assoc.Prof.Dr Nguyen Thu Thuy Assoc.Prof.Dr Pham Thi Thanh Hoa Reviewer 1: Reviewer 2: Reviewer 3: The thesis will be protected before the thesis review board meeting at ……………………………………………………………………… The dissertation can be found at National Library Thuongmai University Library INTRODUCTION Urgency of the thesis topic Vietnam is on the path of strong development and integration into the global economy This provides a great advantage for Vietnamese enterprises in expanding their markets and business fields and in penetrating into global markets Thanks to this, strong development steps for enterprises can be made, especially after WTO entry and the singing of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) However, enterprises also face fierce competition with foreign companies and large multinational economic corporations In fact, the experience of other countries shows that strong economic groups in both the state and private sectors will be the driving force to ensure the successful integration process The development of economic groups is an inevitable part of the process of cooperation and development of various types of enterprises and investment cooperation relationships based on the demand for market development and international economic integration Among the economic corporations in Vietnam, the Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Holding Corporation Limited (Vinacomin) is a state-owned economic group created by the merger of Vietnam Coal Corporation (established in 1994) and Vietnam Minerals Corporation (established in 1995) Its main business lines include: Mining, processing coal and minerals; production of electricity, building materials, and mining chemicals; repair, assembly and manufacturing of mining equipment Over the years, Vinacomin has exploited over 700 million tons, becoming one of the strong economic groups of the country Vinacomin is currently one of the three pillars of ensuring national energy security, the largest coal producer and supplier, the only alumina producer, and the largest non-ferrous metal producer and suppler for domestic economy and export Vinacomin is currently the State's top development priority Thus, Vinacomin has achieved many remarkable achievements and contributed to the country's economic development However, the management board of Vinacomin finds that enterprises in the group still had many potential risks such as the use of financial leverage, the ability to balance cash flow to ensure solvency, bad debts, ineffective financial investment Therefore, it is necessary to have a financial risk management mechanism to minimize losses, which has practical significance for enterprises of Vinacomin when there are many potential factors that cause instability in the group's operations Moreover, in the context of many changes in the economy, corporate financial risk is an issue that needs to be taken care of Therefore, one of the necessary skills for financial management activities is to be equipped with in-depth practical skills on financial risk management in enterprises, including issues of risk identification and assessment, risk management tools, analysis and forecast of corporate financial risk To contribute to identifying, analyzing evaluating, and creating a scientific and objective basis to propose solutions to prevent and limit financial risks at Vinacomin’s enterprises under Vinacomin, the author has selected “Financial risk management at enterprises of the Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Holding Corporation Limited” as the thesis topic Research objective * Overall research objective Based on applying the basic theory of financial risk and financial risk management, the thesis studies financial risk management at Vinacomin’s enterprises during 2013-2019 From there, the thesis provides policy recommendations to strengthen financial risk management at Vinacomin's enterprises in order to prevent and minimize financial risk, and improve financial management quality and business efficiency * Specific research objectives From the above overall research objectives, the thesis sets out the following specific objectives in terms of theory and practice: Firstly, systemize the theoretical issues of financial risk management at enterprises and study practical experience of financial risk management at some enterprises in economic groups Secondly, assess the current situation of financial risk, financial risk management and identify the impact trend of factors affecting financial risk at Vinacomin's enterprises (such as: debt structure, solvency ), and analyze achieved results, limitations and their causes Thirdly, propose solutions to strengthen financial risk management at Vinacomin's enterprises 3.1 Research subjects The thesis focuses on studying financial risk management including identification, measurement, control and financing of financial risks in business activities of Vinacomin's enterprises 3.2 Research scope - In terms of content: The thesis focuses on studying financial risk management contents including financial risks such as: exchange rate risk, interest rate risk, financial leverage risk, commercial credit risk and liquidity risk in business activities at Vinacomin’s enterprises - In terms of space: The thesis studies Vinacomin’s enterprises, including parent company and 32 subsidiaries - In terms of time: The thesis focuses on the study and survey of the current situation of financial risk management at Vinacomin’s enterprises; the actual data are studied in the years from 2013 to 2019 and proposed solutions are for the period up to 2035 Contributions of the thesis In terms of theory The thesis has systemized and clarified the basic theoretical issues of corporate financial risk and financial risk management Also, from analyzing the experience in financial risk management at enterprises in several economic groups in the world, the thesis has drawn lessons for Vinacomin’s enterprises In terms of practice The thesis has pointed out that the characteristics of business lines of Vinacomin’s enterprises affected their financial risk management The thesis has analyzed the current financial risk situation of Vinacomin’s enterprises regarding different types of risks: exchange rate risk, interest rate risk, financial leverage risk, commercial credit risk, and liquidity risk The thesis has applied the MDA econometric model to analyze factors affecting the financial risks at Vinacomin’s enterprises, including parent company and 32 subsidiaries during the period from 2013 to 2019 The thesis has assessed the current situation in financial risk management at Vinacomin’s enterprises from 2013 to 2019 according to four main aspects: identification, measurement, control and risk financing in IPA model The thesis has presented the achieved results and existing limitations in financial risk management at Vinacomin’s enterprises and analyzed the causes of such limitations From the above practical studies, the thesis has proposed solutions to strengthen financial risk management at Vinaconmin’ enterprises, which are: solutions to enhance financial risk identification, methods of financial risk measurement, financial risk control and financing risks, solutions to improve risk management capacity and suggestion on a financial risk management model for Vinacomin’s enterprises These solutions are linked to ensure consistency and feasibility At the same time, several recommendations to the government and banks have been proposed in the thesis in order to facilitate the implementation of the mentioned solutions Thesis structure In addition to the introduction, conclusion and list of tables, figures, list of references and appendices, the thesis has chapters: Chapter 1: Literature review and research methods Chapter 2: Theoretical and practical bases of corporate financial risk management Chapter 3: The current situation of financial risk management at Vinacomin’s enterprises Chapter 4: Orientations and solutions to strengthen financial risk management at Vinacomin’s enterprises CHAPTER LITERATURE REVIEW AND RESEARCH METHODS 1.1 Literature review 1.1.1 Studies on the theories of risk and financial risk 1.1.2 Studies on financial risk identification 1.1.3 Studies on financial risk measurement 1.1.4 Studies on financial risk control 1.2 Scientific and practical values of published studies; research gaps 1.2.1 Scientific and practical values In general, relevant published studies so far have contributed to clarifying the theoretical issues of financial risk and financial risk management of Vietnamese enterprises Doctoral theses as well as scientific articles mainly analyzed the current situation and pointed out types of financial risk and financial risk management procedures of enterprises in general in a certain research period; from there, they have proposed solutions to strengthen financial risk management in enterprises About research methods: : Most of the published studies used qualitative methods; very few studies used quantitative methods In the studying and writing processes, in order to come up with solutions to strengthen financial risk management at Vinacomin’s enterprises in the current period, the author has consulted a part of the theoretical and practical basis as well as research methods of these studies The author has also consulted the financial risk management experience at enterprises of large economic groups in some countries, thereby drawing lessons for Vietnamese enterprises Besides, the authors has inherited the approach of quantitative models to study the current situation of financial risk management or factors affecting financial risk at Vinacomin's enterprises 1.2.2 Research gaps and research directions of the thesis From the literature review, it is shown that the published studies still have the following limitations and research gaps: - These studies have mentioned a lot about corporate financial risk management; however, there has not been any specific research on financial risk management at Vinacomin's enterprises - There has not been any published study on corporate financial risk management at enterprises in general and at enterprises of specific economic groups in Vietnam using the IPA model for analysis - There have not been many in-depth studies on the financial risk management model using the MDA regression model to analyze the factors affecting the financial risks of Vinacomin's enterprises The expected results of the study will provide recommendations for management agencies and risk management methods for Vinacomin's enterprises in particular and other economic groups in general Based on such limitations and gaps, the thesis will focus on clarifying the following main contents: - Synthesize theoretical basis and practical model in corporate financial risk management - Analyze the current situation of financial risk management at Vinacomin's enterprises in the period of 2013 - 2019 through the IPA model - Provide conclusions in verifying factors affecting financial risk at Vinacomin's enterprises through the MDA model - Propose solutions and recommendations for adjusting appropriate policies for financial risk management activities atVinacomin's enterprises 1.3 Thesis research process and research methods 1.3.1 Thesis research process To answer the above research questions, the author has proposed a research process consisting of steps: Step 1: Identify the research problem Step 2: Present literature review Step Identify research gaps and provide viewpoint on the thesis approach Step Systemize the theoretical basis related to the research topic Step Study the current situation of financial risk, financial risk management and factors affecting financial risk at Vinacomin's enterprises and present research results Step Based on the research results, provide viewpoints, discussions and recommendations to strengthen financial risk management at Vinacomin's enterprises 1.3.2 Research methods The thesis has applied methods of dialectical materialism and historical materialism to study socio-economic issues Accordingly, the thesis has used a combination of research methods, which are qualitative and quantitative research methods 1.3.2.1 Qualitative research methods Qualitative research method aims to explore and understand deeper the practice of financial risk management at Vinacomin's enterprises in the current context This qualitative research has been conducted through in-depth interview technique with experts This is a very suitable research method to explore the views and thoughts of research subjects The author has conducted the interview method directly or by phone with leaders of enterprises who are the Board of Directors/Board of members, directors, deputy directors, financial experts, chief accountants and other experts, specialist in accounting and finance 1.3.2.2 Quantitative research methods The theis has applied the quantitative method on the basis of using information from questionnaires to collect data on the current situation of financial risk management at Vinacomin's enterprises As the characteristics of financial risk management is to prevent, limit and avoid loss due to risks for enterprises, to assess the importance and usage level of each group of financial risk management, the application of the IPA method is considered to be the most appropriate and feasible It is because this model measures the characteristics of the types of financial risk based on the difference between the importance of the types of financial risk and the usage level of the types of financial risk by enterprises Results from the analysis of importance and usage level is shown by scatter plot with the support of SPSS software version 20 Importance level In the traditional IPA model, the matrix is built based on two factors, namely "Performance" and "Importance", using the average value of these two factors to build a Quadrant matrix consisting of cells, with the following components: STRATEGY C STRATEGY K (Concentrate here) (Keep up good work) STRATEGY L STRATEGY P (Low priority) (Possible overkill) Performance (Usage level) Figure 1.1: Matrix of Importance - Performance Analysis with respective strategies - In addition, the thesis has applied the MDA econometric model of Alexander Bathory to study the factors affecting financial risks at Vinacomin's enterprises The observational sample of 33 Vinacomin's enterprises is collected from audited financial statements, annual reports and other related data for the period from 2013 to 2019 The data in this thesis are balanced panel data, consisting of 231 observations The thesis has applied the methods of quantitative analysis on panel data (Panel Data), Pooled OLS, FEM, and REM to analyze factors affecting financial risk of Vinacomin's enterprises Alexander Bathory (1984) analyzed 25 indexes including indicators reflecting profitability, capital structure , then focused on indicators explaining financial risk (FRit) of the business: FRit = SZLit + SYit + GLit + YFit + YZit In which, SZLit: (Profit before tax + Depreciation of fixed assets + Deferred income tax) / Short-term debt; SYit: Profit before tax / Total capital; GLit: Equity / Short-term debt; YFit: Residual value of fixed assets / Liabilities; YZit: Working capital / Total assets The feature of this model is applicable to all types of businesses because it is very simple for calculating and forecasting the possibility of bankruptcy as well as measuring the financial capacity of the business Alexander Bathory (1984) states that the smaller the value of the model (FRit), the higher the financial risk of the business Table 1: Description of variables in the research model 01 01 02 Variable name Dependent variables Dependent variables Independent variable Code FRit Debt structure DS Solvency CR Formula Expectations SZLit + SYit + GLit + YFit + YZit Current liabilities Total liability Current assets Current liabilities (-) (+) 03 QR 04 IGS 05 06 ROS Profitability ROA 07 IT 08 09 FAT Operation ability TAT 10 RT 11 12 ES Financial structure FAS Control variable 01 Interest rate 02 03 04 IR Firm age AGE State ownership rate STATE The size of Members' Council / Board of Directors BOD Current assets - Inventories Current liabilities Total assets Total liabilities Net income Sales Net income Average total assets Cost of goods sold Average inventories Sales Average fixed assets Sales Average total assets Sales Average accounts receivable Equity Total assets Fixed assets Total assets (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) Average interest rate on loans (-) of the commercial Bank Time calculated by year since (+) the enterprise was founded State ownership rate (%) (-) Numbers of member in Member’s Council / Board of (+) director Source: Results colleted from references Based on experimental studies and related theory, the author proposes the following research hypotheses: - H1: Debt structure (DS) of VINACOMIN has a negative impact and has statistical significance on FRit - H2: The solvency (CR, QR, IGS) of VINACOMIN has a significant positive impact on the FRit - H3: The profitability (ROA, ROS) of VINACOMIN has a positive influence on FRit - H4: Performance (FAT, TAT, RT) of VINACOMIN has a significant positive influence on FRit - H5: Financial structure (ES, FAS) of VINACOMIN has a significant positive impact on FRit - H6: Interest rate (IR) of loan of VINACOMIN has a negative impact on Frit - H7: Age (AGE) of VINACOMIN has a significant positive influence on FRit - H8: The size of Members' Council / Board of Directors (BOD) of VINACOMIN has a significant positive impact on FRit - H9: State ownership ratio (STATE) has a negative impact and has statistical significance to FRit CHAPTER THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL BASES OF CORPORATE FINANCIAL REISK MANAGEMENT 2.1 Corporate financial risk 2.1.1 Overview of corporate financial risk Although there are many different approaches to the concept of risk, according to the author's approach: - In qualitative aspect: Risk is uncertainty or a state of uncertainty - In quantitative aspect: Risk is the difference between the actual value and the expected value, measured by standard deviation The nature of risk is also reflected in its inherent characteristics, which are uncertainty, randomness and instability 2.1.2 Overview of financial risks at enterprises From the above studies on financial risk, the author has introduced the concept of corporate financial risk as follows: “Corporate financial risk is the risk arising from changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and the implementation of corporate financial decisions that cause fluctuations in the actual rate of return compared with the expected rate of return during the operation of an enterprise” 2.1.3 Impact of financial risk on enterprises 2.1.3.1 Impact of financial risk on business costs The impact of financial risks on business costs is reflected in three aspects: the cost of capital mobilization (or the cost of using capital), business expenses and financial distress costs 2.1.3.2 The impact of financial risk on corporate profitability When investing in a project, an enterprise considers if the return is worth the risks encountered? Theoretically, the higher the risk, the greater the return If enterprises not manage project finance effectively, long-term risks can cause "erosion" of profits Financial risks may occur leading to an increase in the inefficient costs of the project, affecting profits 2.1.3.3 Impact of financial risks on business performance and competitiveness of enterprises The impact of financial risks on business expenses and profit is the impact on business efficiency and competitiveness of enterprises Business efficiency of an enterprise shows the comparison between the results obtained with the costs spent to achieve that result in business The lower the cost spent, the greater the profit obtained and the higher the efficiency, The higher the business efficiency, the healthier the financial situation and the higher the competitiveness of an enterprise 2.1.3.4 Impact of financial risk on business value Financial risks results in reduced cash flow and affects investor confidence Due to increased risk, investors demand high rates of return to compensate They all affect business value 2.2 Corporate financial risk management 2.2.1 The concept and necessity of financial risk management 2.2.1.1 The concept of financial risk management Steven Li (2003); Triantis (2000); Drogt & Goldberg(2008); Assoc.Prof.Dr Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang (2007); Assoc.Prof.Dr Vu Van Ninh and Dr Pham Thanh Hoa (2017), the authors would like to introduce the concept of corporate financial risk management as follows: "Financial risk management is the identification of the level of financial risk that an enterprise accepts and the - Identify risks posed by financial decisions 2.2.2.2 Measurement of corporate financial risk - Objectives of measurement of corporate financial risk Identifying financial risks is the first step in the risk management process However, there are many types of financial risks; enterprises cannot deal with, control and prevent all types of financial risks at the same time due to limited financial resources and the fact that risks are unexpected events so they cannot all be recognized There are types of financial risks that occur with high frequency and those with very low frequency; there are also types that cause serious consequences or those that cause less serious impact As a result, appropriate financial risk management measures must be taken To so, enterprises needs to conduct the measurement, analysis and forecast of corporate financial risk; they are included in the process of quantifying and assessing the severity of corporate financial risks to ensure effective financial risk management - Qualitative measurement methods According to experts, experience of financial risk management shows that the following five groups of criteria are most widely used in qualitative measurement of financial risks - The ratio of value of overdue debts or bad debts or written-off debts to total outstanding loans is increasing - The proportion of debts that have been restructured or reversed, postponed, extended or frozen compared to the total outstanding loans is increasing - The ratio between provisions for bad debts, decrease in inventory price, and annual decrease in financial investment price compared to provision to total assets is high and increasing - Operational efficiency tends to decrease or become negative - Performance tends to decrease - Quantitative measurement methods - One: using standard deviation and coefficient of variation - Second: using the value of risk VaR (Value at Risk) - Third: using the bankruptcy risk coefficient Z-Score - Fourth: using the research model of Alexander Bathory 2.2.2.3 Control of financial risk - Basic content of financial risk control: this often aims at the following five groups of solutions: financial risk reduction, risk avoidance, risk prevention and mitigation, risk transfer or risk sharing, risk taking - Some measures to prevent financial risks: (1) Using derivative financial instruments; (2) Controlling interest rate risk and financial leverage risk; (3) Controlling exchange rate risk; (4) Controlling trade credit risks 2.2.2.4 Corporate financial risk offset Financial risk management is not about preventing all bad possibilities from happening, but accepting a reasonable cost to prevent and minimize losses due to risk A financial risk management plan is only effective when it costs less than the damage caused by risk or the insurance premiums an enterprise has to pay However, there are many types of risks that cannot be transferred and an enterprise is forced to accept Therefore, the cost of financial risk management cannot be the only factor to evaluate the effectiveness of corporate financial risk management In order to cope with financial risks, enterprises must regularly ensure necessary reserve funds and be ready to cover all possible losses to ensure safety for financial activities Depending on the characteristics of each type of loss, an enterprise is entitled to use appropriate capital sources to offset 2.2.3 Financial risk management model 10 Currently, there are models of financial risk management in the world and in Vietnam as follows: (1) Centralized financial risk management model (2) Dispersed financial risk management model (3) Combined model of the above two models 2.2.4 Evaluation criteria for corporate financial risk management Quantitative evaluation criteria: - The level of understanding and interest of enterprises in corporate financial risks and financial risk management - The degree of completion of the legal framework related to corporate financial risk management - The level of completion in terms of organizational structure, personnel, and physical facilities - The level of compliance and implementation of the contents of corporate financial risk management process - The level of effectiveness and efficiency of financial risk management activities in each stage of identifying, measuring, controlling and handling risks and financial risk offset of the enterprise Quantitative evaluation criteria: - The reduction in standard deviation or coefficient of variation of an enterprise's return on equity (ROE) - The reduction in the ratio of overdue debt (or bad debt, written off debt) compared to the total outstanding debt of the enterprise - Reduction in the ratio of provisions for risks - In addition, businesses can also use the indicators of change in risk value (VaR), change in risk coefficient of bankruptcy (Z-Score), research model of Alexander Bathory before and after implementing risk management measures to evaluate risk management results 2.3 Factors affecting corporate financial risk management 2.3.1 Internal factors of enterprises In this section, the author has presented the theory of factors affecting financial risk management in the internal and external environment of enterprises, including: management level of the leadership team, business line, management structure, and corporate financial policy 2.3.2 Internal factors of enterprises In this section, the author has presented the theory of factors affecting financial risk management in the internal and external environment, including: political environment, sociocultural environment, regulatory environment, and economic environment 2.4 Experience in financial risk management at some enterprises of economic groups in the world and lessons for enterprises of economic groups in Vietnam Through studying the financial risk management process at enterprises in leading economic groups in the world (such as: Petronas Group - Malaysia, NTT Group - Japan, TELUS Economic Group - Canada, US economic groups), the author has drawn a number of lessons learned for enterprises of economic corporations in Vietnam in risk management as follows: Firstly, raising awareness of financial risks for all enterprises of economic groups 11 Secondly, establishing a unit specializing in risk management Thirdly, establishing a set of criteria to evaluate the results of financial risk management activities to ensure comprehensive and systematic characteristics Fourthly, applying advanced science, technology and models to help identify, measure and assess corporate financial risks Fifthly, promoting the activity of hiring consultants to improve the risk management process Sixthly, selecting a financial risk management model suitable to the size and development of economic groups' enterprises CHAPTER THE CURRENT SITUATION OF FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT AT VINACOMIN’S ENTERPRISES 3.1 The history of establishment and development of Vinacomin’s enterprises 3.1.1 General information about Vinacomin’s enterprises Vinacomin was established under Decision No 345/2005/QD-TTg dated December 26, 2005 of the Prime Minister on the basis of merging Vietnam National Coal Corporation (formerly known as Vietnam Coal Corporation established on Oct 10, 1994 under Decision No 563/QD-TTG of the Prime Minister) and Vietnam National Minerals Corporation The corporation operated under the Charter approved by the Prime Minister in Decision No 228/2006/QD-TTg dated Oct 11, 2006 Then, on June 25, 2010, the Prime Minister issued Decision No 989/QD-TTg on restructuring the parent company - The Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group - into a one-member limited company owned by the State On Dec 19, 2013, the Prime Minister issued Decree No 212/2013/ND-CP on the Charter of organization and operation of Vinacomin (replacing the former charter issued under Decision No 418/QD-TTg on March 21, 2011 of the Prime Minister) - Currently, Vinacomin has one parent company (27 affiliated units) and subsidiaries: onemember limited liability enterprises (04 companies), joint-stock enterprises (29 companies), other subsidiaries with independent accounting systems and revenue (04 units), and overseas subsidiaries (02 enterprises) 3.1.2 Business lines of Vinacomin’s enterprises Group of coal - mineral production enterprises; Group of enterprises; Group of service enterprise mechanical manufacturing 3.1.3 Operational organizational structure of Vinacomin’s enterprises The current organizational structure of Vinacomin's enterprises is the basis for building an appropriate financial risk management mechanism The organizational structure of the management apparatus of enterprises under Vinacomin includes: Board of Directors / Board of members, Control Board, Board of manager, Functional departments and units 3.2 Overview of the financial situation in Vinacomin’s enterprises 3.2.1 Business results of Vinacomin’s enterprises in the period of 2013 - 2019 Business results show the business situation and results of Vinacomin's enterprises in a certain period, including a number of indicators such as net revenue, profit before interest and tax, loan interest, profit before tax, and profit after tax The table below shows that all indicators fluctuate in 12 an increasing and decreasing trend over the years Especially in 2015-2016, the decrease in revenue and profit of Vinacomin's enterprises was caused by the decrease in coal price by 7-10% compared to the planned cost Revenue from the sale of non-coal products at Vinacomin also dropped sharply due to the lack of customers The decrease in coal price was caused by the need to import coal from China,; the main coal import market of Vietnam fell deeply As a result, the coal industry's inventories increased sharply with the inventory value reaching thousands of billions of dong Moreover, the historic flood at the end of July and the beginning of August in 2015 resulted in many incurred costs to overcome the consequences of natural disasters at coal mines in Quang Ninh 13 BUSINESS PERFORMANCE OF VINACOMIN'S ENTERPRISES IN THE PERIOD OF 2013-2019 Unit: million VND 12/31/2013 No Criterion (b) Difference (b/a) Absolute ratio value (%) 12/31/2014 (c) Difference (c/b) Absolute ratio value (%) Net Revenue 77,093,384.14 5,663,632.67 7.9% 78,091,471.97 998,087.83 EBIT 7,261,809.22 73,715.45 1.0% 6,721,534.16 Interest 4,211,454.80 493,000.93 13.3% Profit before tax 3,050,354.42 (419,285.48) Profit after tax 2,068,842.49 (327,580.30) 12/31/2016 No Criterion Absolute value (d) Difference (d/c) Absolute ratio(%) value 12/31/2016 (e) Difference (e/d) Absolute ratio(% value ) 1.3% 76,390,608.73 (1,700,863.24) -2.2% 71,055,465.18 (5,335,143.56) -7.0% (540,275.06) -7.4% 4,669,992.87 (2,051,541.29) -30.5% 5,521,070.68 851,077.81 18.2% 3,905,273.26 (306,181.54) -7.3% 3,831,332.73 (73,940.53) -1.9% 4,484,589.08 653,256.35 17.1% -12.1% 2,816,260.90 (234,093.52) -7.7% 838,660.14 (1,977,600.76) -70.2% 1,036,481.60 197,821.47 23.6% -13.7% 2,118,080.37 49,237.88 2.4% 472,799.78 (1,645,280.59) -77.7% 1,171,950.58 699,150.80 147.9% Difference (e/d) (e) 12/31/2015 ratio (%) 12/31/2017 Difference (f/e) 12/31/2018 Difference (g/f) (f) Absolute value ratio (%) (g) Absolute value ratio(%) 12/31/2019 (h) Difference (h/g) Absolute value ratio(% ) Net Revenue 71,055,465.18 (5,335,143.56) -7.0% 79,259,534.80 8,204,069.62 11.5% 103,081,005.01 23,821,470.21 30.1% 103,231,013.06 150,008.05 EBIT 5,521,070.68 851,077.81 18.2% 7,932,430.23 2,411,359.55 43.7% 9,613,691.75 1,681,261.52 21.2% 5,439,469.29 (4,174,222.46) -43.4% Interest 4,484,589.08 653,256.35 17.1% 4,881,673.20 397,084.12 8.9% 4,615,449.58 (266,223.62) -5.5% 1,541,875.64 (3,073,573.94) -66.6% 2,014,275.43 194.3 % 4,998,242.17 1,947,485.14 63.8% 3,897,593.66 (1,100,648.51) -22.0% 1,325,135.52 113.1 % 3,867,239.57 1,370,153.47 54.9% 3,197,140.95 (670,098.62) -17.3% Profit before tax Profit after tax 1,036,481.60 1,171,950.58 197,821.47 699,150.80 23.6% 147.9% 3,050,757.03 2,497,086.10 ((Source: Calculated from Vinacomin's consolidated financial statements for the 2013-2019 period) 0.1% 14 3.2.2 Fluctuations in assets and capital sources of Vinacomin’s enterprises in the period of 2013 – 2019 The asset scale of Vinacomin's enterprises tended to decrease in the period of 2013-2019; total assets were in the range of 124,573 - 140,211 billion VND Regarding the capital structure, in the period of 2013 - 2019, the corporation's capital structure lean towards account payable which accounted for over 60% of total capital During 2013-2016, the account payable each year was higher than the previous year; in 2017-2019, the account payable decreased gradually 3.2.3 Performance efficiency of Vinacomin’s enterprises For more accurate assessment of the performance efficiency of Vinacomin's enterprises, it is possible to base on the profit ratio indicators The data table shows that return on sales (ROS), economic rate of return (BEP) have decreased sharply over the years in the period from 2013 to 2016, increased by 2017-2018 and feltt sharply in 2019 It is shown in the appendix and chart 3.4 that both the ratio of profit after tax/total assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) experienced unstable fluctuations and decreased significantly in the period 2013-2016, then increased in 2017-2019, especially for ROE 3.3.1 The current situation of financial risk of Vinacomin's enterprises 3.3.1.1 market risk - Interest rate risk: As in the overview of the financial situation of Vinacomin's enterprises, their capital structures lean more towards loans and debts with a debt ratio of over 70%, of which short-term loans and debts account for a relatively large proportion of total loans (approximately 50% in 2019), so the fluctuation of interest rates is a factor that has a strong impact on costs, access to capital, and business performance Therefore, according to the survey, most businesses have experienced this risk - Exchange rate risk Over the years 2013-2015 and 2017-2019, enterprises faced exchange rate risk due to negative differences in the category of exchange rate Therefore, they need to pay more attention and take measures to identify, control and finance exchange rate risks 3.3.1.2 Trade credit risk Credit sales is a sales policy that enterprises apply; however, with the reduction of receivables turnover, it shows that Vinacomin's enterprises are still slow in collecting money This leads to the reduction in the amount of working capital; also, in order to ensure capital for business activities, it is necessary to mobilize more capital In 2013, due to better changes in the economy, and also thanks to the collection of debts of over 2,000 billion VND from Vinacomin's enterprises, the annual capital recovery rate improved But in 2015-2016, due to the economic downturn, the corporation could not maintain this level of improvement By the year 2018-2019, when the economy improved, Vinacomin began to make a breakthrough In general, however, Vinacomin's enterprises were not very proactive in financial management and did not actively respond to changes in the economy These are the causes leading to the commercial credit risks 3.3.1.3 Financial leverage risk In the period of 2013 - 2019, Vinacomin’s capital structure leaned towards accounts payable 15 which accounted for over 60% of total capital Accounts payable from 2013 to 2016 were high, increasing by the year In 2017-2019, accounts payable decreased gradually As the production and business scale of enterprises increased, enterprises also increased capital mobilization by using financial leverage Even though the level of financial leverage increased, ROE decreased; as a result, enterprises faced difficulties in paying the due principal Clearly capital usage of enterprises were not efficient The high ratio use of debt while the efficiency of capital usage is reduced; this led to a decrease in ROE and an increase in financial leverage risk for enterprises 3.3.1.4 Liquidity risk - Current ratio: from 2014 to 2019, these ratios were all less than 1, showing it was not guaranteed that Vinacomin's enterprises could meet short-term debts - Quick ratio: the quick ratios of 0.317-0.575 (all less than 1) showed difficulties of enterprises in settling debts - Acid test ratio: these ratios were all at 0.037- 0.154, less than the required level, which showed that liquidity in cash and cash equivalents of Vinacomin's enterprises for due debts was still low - Interest coverage ratio: The ratios of enterprises from 2013-2017 were all greater than and less than 2, indicating that the ability to pay interest on loans was low In 2018-2019, these ratios were greater than 2, showing positive and improved signs in that their ability to pay interest 3.3.1.5 Results of verifying factors affecting financial risk of Vinacomin's enterprises (1) Analytical process (2) Analysis results According to Table 3.5, Prob = 0.000 is less than 0.05, thus rejecting hypothesis H0 The final chosen model for analysis is the FEM model By using suitable regression techniques for the data set, the thesis has found that the factors affecting financial risks of Vinacomin’s enterprises are: quick ratio (QR), return on sales (ROS), inventory turnover (IT), fixed asset turnover (FAT), total asset turnover (TAT), receivable turnover (RT) , capital structure (ES), fixed asset structure (FAS), state ownership ratio (STATE) and age of the enterprise (AGE) 3.4 The current situation of financial risk management of Vinacomin's enterprise 3.4.1 Basis for financial risk management of Vinacomin’s enterprises - Law on Enterprises and Decrees guiding the implementation of regulations on legal forms, rights and obligations, organizational and management structure of the parent company and its subsidiaries; method of exercising the rights and obligations of the parent company in relation to the subsidiaries - Decree No 105/2018/ND - CP dated 8/8/2018 of the Government promulgating the charter of organization and operation of Vinacomin's enterprises; Decree No 69/2014/ND-CP dated 15/07/2014 on state economic groups and state corporations Resolution No 44/2019/ND - HDTV dated October 2, 2019 of the members' council of Vinacomin; Decision 1818/QD-TKV dated October 17, 2019 promulgating the Regulation on risk management and prevention at Vinacomin; risk management according to ISO 31000 and COSO 2004 standards; Accounting Law No 03/2003/QH11… 3.4.2 Financial risk management model of Vinacomin's enterprises 16 There are models of financial risk management In the world: dispersed model, centralized model, and a combination model these two models According to the results of expert interviews, currently, Vinacomin's enterprises are applying the dispersed financial risk management model 3.4.3 Contents of financial risk management of Vinacomin's enterprises This IPA model classifies the attributes that measure the quality of financial risk management, provides business managers with useful information about the current status of existing and potential financial risks, thereby creating a scientific basis for financial risk management This helps managers/leaders of economic groups make the right strategic decisions to improve the quality and effectiveness of financial risk management The analytical results fof the importance and usage are shown by scatter plot with the support of SPSS software version 20 From the overview of financial risk management process presented in the previous section combined with the results of expert interviews, the thesis has built 23 observed variables corresponding to the survey questions These criteria will be evaluated on two scales: the usage level and implementation level (part 3, Appendix 1) Each scale is rated from to on the Likert scale With a score from to 5, the distance value = (Maximum value - Minimum value) / n = (5-1)/5 = 0.8, so the meaning of the average scores is as follows: Importance level: - Scale: 1=Not important; 2=Less important; 3= Average; 4= Quite important; = Very important; - Mean score: 1.00 - 1.80: Very unimportant; 1.81 - 2.60: Doesn't matter; 2.61 - 3.40: Average; 3.41 - 4.20: Important; 4.21 - 5.00: Very important Usage level: - Scale: 1= Never used ; = Rarely used; 3= Occasionally; = Regularly; 5= Always - Mean score: 1.00 - 1.80: Never used; 1.81 - 2.60: Rarely used; 2.61 - 3.40: Occasionally; 3.41 - 4.20: Regularly; 4.21 - 5.00: Always From the developed set of criteria, the author has made and distributed questionnaires to 165 people of 33 Vinacomin's enterprises, including key officials who are: directors, deputy directors, chief accountants, heads of finance department, deputy heads of internal control department 153 valid answer sheets were obtained, data were cleaned and the IPA model was run on SPSS software to assess the current situation of financial risk management Data collected through questionnaires using SPSS software on the respondents' assessment of the importance and use of financial risk management are handled with results shown in the following table: Table 3.6 Mean score and standard deviation of importance level and usage level of each observed variable Importance level Standard Mean score deviation Financial risk identification C1.1 4.00 0.975 C1.2 4.50 1.032 C1.3 3.50 0.856 C1.4 4.00 0.994 C1.5 4.30 0.985 C1.6 4.10 1.003 C1.7 4.50 0.964 Financial risk measurement Criteria Usage level Standard Mean score deviation 2.20 4.50 1.50 3.70 4.10 4.00 4.10 1.003 0.985 0.897 0.902 0.963 0.958 0.972 Mean difference 1.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 17 C2.1 C2.2 C2.3 C2.4 C2.5 Financial risk control C3.1 C3.2 C3.3 C3.4 C3.5 C3.6 C3.7 C3.8 Tài trợ rủi ro tài C3.1 C3.2 C3.3 4.00 4.50 4.00 4.00 3.30 0.958 1.003 0.978 0.867 0.907 4.00 4.00 4.20 1.50 3.90 0.983 1.003 0.897 0.906 0.925 0.5 -0.2 2.5 -0.6 3.20 4.10 3.90 4.50 4.00 4.30 4.20 3.00 1.005 0.930 0.904 0.893 0.975 1.007 1.076 0.948 2.20 3.00 3.00 4.00 3.20 4.00 3.80 4.00 1.002 0.958 0.983 0.896 0.954 0.992 0.907 0.984 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.4 -1.0 4.00 4.20 3.00 0.968 1.006 0.983 3.00 3.00 2.50 1.008 0.903 0.929 1.0 1.2 0.5 (Source: The author’s calculation using the SPSS software) The statements about the criteria in financial risk management activities at Vinacomin are summarized according to two descriptive statistics: the mean score and the standard deviation The standard deviations of observed variables fluctuate around the value 1, showing that these observed variables follow the standard distribution with statistical significance at 95% level From the results of data processing, the author has made comments on the current situation of financial risk management at Vinacomin's enterprises according to the following contents 3.4.3.1 Financial risk identification Among the assessment factors of financial risk identification (table 3.1), most of the respondents considered the importance level and usage level high with the mean score above However, the mean score of 1.5 for usage level factor C1.3 is low in Vietnam, meaning that no enterprise has identified risks by building forecast models; they have mainly identified risk through periodic analysis of corporate finance According to the survey results, up to 72.5% of the respondents believed that their business has encountered all types of financial risks; especially, up to 90.19% of respondents answered that they have encountered market risk (risk related to fluctuations in interest rates, exchange rates and price) Thus financial risk has been a frequent problem for enterprises 3.4.3.2 Financial risk measurement Table 3.6 shows measurement results using qualitative methods, quantitative methods and results obtained with different importance and usage levels - Ratio of overdue debt (or bad debt or written off debt) to total debit: Total debit is the amount that customers owe to an enterprise at a given time Not all businesses use this indicator and usage results were different among enterprises Among the respondents, they rate the importance level and usage level of use at 4, showing that this measurement is very important and often used Thus, it is clear that businesses have overdue debt at high levels - Provision rate: 100% of the respondents believe that their enterprises make provisions even though the provision rates are different among enterprises and depend on loss level of provisional categories - Degree of financial leverage : The respondents also say that their enterprises all use this measurement with a high level of importance and performance; the average score is above - There are quantitative measurement methods mentioned in Table 3.6 which are standard deviation, risk value (VAR), Z-scores are used to predict corporate defaults, and Alexander Bathory model 100% of the respondents believe that their enterprises not use this method The importance ... financial risks at Vinacomin’s enterprises under Vinacomin, the author has selected ? ?Financial risk management at enterprises of the Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Holding Corporation Limited? ??... corporations in Vietnam, the Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Holding Corporation Limited (Vinacomin) is a state-owned economic group created by the merger of Vietnam Coal Corporation (established... for the period up to 2035 Contributions of the thesis In terms of theory The thesis has systemized and clarified the basic theoretical issues of corporate financial risk and financial risk management