Tập tài liệu giảng dạy Thống kê (dành cho lớp bồi dưỡng nghiệp vụ chức danh công chức văn phòng – thống kê xã khu vực trung du, miền núi và dân tộc)

Chilc daOO chuyen mon th6ng kS va van phong UBND a c~p xa, phuOng, thi tran co trach nhi~m t6 chilc thvc hi~n cac cUQc diSu tra thdng kS va thvc hi~~.. ch~ dQ bao cao th6ng kS thea[r]

BONOIVU- " ' -'.

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)( " THONGKE TAp TAl LIEU GIANG DAY.

DANH CHO LOP BOI DUONG NGHIEP VU

eHue DANH eONG eHire VAN PHONG-T:H6NG ICE xA

KHU yVe TRUNG DU, MIEN NiH vA DAN TOe

(Ban hanh kern theo Quyit ajnh s6: 348IQD-BNV 19 thang nam 2012 eua Bp truc7ng Bp Npi v¥) /

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MUCLUC

BAI 1: NHIEM vu eVA THONG KE xA vA PHUONG PHAp THONGKE

1 Khai ni~m, d6i tUQllg th6ng kS va nhi~m V\l eua th6ng ke xa

2 H" h~ ~ h' hJ k"'? V· '" N h·" 2

, ~ tong to e uc tong e a l~t am l~n

h? ~ ., hI k"';ow 3

3 Nh l~m ·'" V\l e uyeu euatang e xa

II PhUOllg phap th6ng ke 4

1 Qua trinh nghien Clm th6ng ke

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1.1 tJieu tra thong ke 4

1.2 TBng hqp th6ng ke

1.3 Phan tich va dv doan th6ng kS

2 PhUOllg phap phan tich rnQt s6 chi tieu th6ng ke •.•

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·2 So tuy~t doi 7

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2.2 So tUOllg d6i • •.•

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2.3 S6 trung binh (s6 binh quan) • 100

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2.4 Day s6 thai gian 133

3 PhUOllg phap trinh bay s6li~u th6ng ke 1919

3.1.Bang tho, ng ke - 19

3.2 D6 thi th6ng kS 20

BAI 2: NOI DUNG BAa eAo THONG KE xA 22

I Chi tieu baa cao th6ng kS xa 22

1tleu " tong e xa 'hI k" - : 22

2 N "'· d "J h?·" hJ k""" 24

1 Ch?

91 ung rnQt so c tleu tong e xa

o1 Deit dai va dan s6 : 24

02 Kinh tS ~"2

03 Xa hQi, moi truO'ng 42

ILGi6i thi~u phiSu thu th~p thong tin th6ng ke va bang bi~u t~6ng ke xa.58

HUONG DAN LAP MOT SO BlED " 117

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BA.Il

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NHIEM vu eVA THONG KE XA

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vA PHUONG PHAp THONG KE

I Khai ni~m, d8i tU'Q'ng th8ng ke va nhi~m vI} ella th8ng ke xii

I.Khai ni~m va d8i tU'q"ng th8ng ke

1.1 Klta; nifm:

Th6ng ke co thS duQ'c hiSu theo hai nghia:

- Nghia 1: Thpng ke la cac s6 duQ'c quan sat, thu th?p, ghi chep nh~m phan

anh cac hi~n tuqng tv nhien, kinh t~, xii hQi (VD: s6 tr?n biio di qua mQt vung, tY

l~ m~c b~nh viem gan B toan qU6c .)

- Nghia 2: Th6ng ke la khoa hQc nghien Clm h~ th6ng cac phuong phap dS ghi

chep, thu th?p va phan dch cac s6 vS hi~n tuqng tv OOien, kinh t~, xii hQi s6

IOn dS tim bfm ch:1t va tiOO quy lu?t Clla chung OOUng diSu ki~n thai

gian va dia diSm C\l thS

1.2 Bai tlrf/ng nghien cuu cua thang ke:

Th6ng ke hQC la mQt mon khoa hQc xii hQi, dai va phat triSn nhu cc1u

eua eae ho~t dQng th\Ic tiSn xii hQi

Th6ng ke hQc nghien Clm cac hi~n tuqng va qua trinh kinh t~ xii hQi Bao

g6m: Cac hi~n tuqng vS dan s6 (nhu s6 nhan kh~u, c:1u clla OOan khfiu,

giai c:1p, gio-i tinh, tu6i tac, nghS nghi~p, dan tQc ), tinh hiOO bi~n dQng cua

nhan kh~u; Tinh hinh phan ph6i dan cu theo liinh th6; Cac hi~n tuqng vS dai

s6ng V?t ch:1t va van hoa Clla OOan dan (nhu: muc s6ng V?t ch:1t, triOO d9 van

hoa, suc khoe ); Cac hi~n tUQ'ng vS sinh ho~t chinh tri, xii hQi (nhu: c:1u t~o cac

co quan Nha nuo-c,.doan thS, s6 nguai tham gia tuySn cu , mit tiOO )

Khi nghie.n Clm hi~n tuqng kiOO t~ - xii hQi, th6ng ke khong thS khong xet

d~n anh huemg Clla cac y~u t6 t\1' OOien (thai ti~t, h?u, dia ly) va cac y~u t6

ky thu?t (phat minh sang ki~n, cai ti~n cong C\l, ap d\lng cac ky thu?t mo-i)

MQi hi~n tuqng kinh t~ - xii hQi bao gia cling co hai m~t ImJng va ch:1t

khong th~ tach ra\ M~t luqng Clla hi~n tm;mg giup th:1y dw;rc hi~n tUQ'ng

muc dQ nao M~t ch:1t clla hi~n tw;mg giup phan bi~t gifra hi~n tm;mg ll<ly v6i

hi~n tuqng khac M~t ch:1t Clla hi~n tuqng kinh t~ xii hQi khong t6n t~i dQc l?p

ma duQ'c bi~u hi~n qua luqng v6i nhfrng cach thuc xu ly m~t lUQ'ng mQt cach

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khoa hQc Do do, th6ng ke nghien Clm m~t lUQng g~n v&i m~t ch~t eua hi~n

tUQl1g kinh tS -xa hQi

DS co thS phan anh duQ'c ban chftt va quy lu~t phai triSn cua hi~n tUQllg,

cac s6 th6ng ke phai duQ'c t~p hQ1J, thu th~p tren mQt s6 Ion cac hi~n tuqng

trong ph~m vi rQng 100 ho~c l~p di l~p l~i Co nhu v~y m&i lo~i tru duQ'c cac ySu

t6 ng~u nhien, khong 6n diOO dS tim ban chftt, tiOO quy lu~t va qua triOO v~

d9ng eua hi~n tugng

~6i tu<;mg nghien Clm cua th6ng ke hQc bao gia cung t6n t~i diSu

ki~n thai gian va dia diSm C\l thS

Nhu v~y: D6i tUQl1g nghien Clm cua th6ng ke hQc la m~t IUQllg rn6i

lien h~ m~t thiSt v&i m~t ch~t cua hi~n tugng va qua triOO kinh tS -xa hQi s6 lOn,

trong diSu ki~n thai gian va dja diSm C\l thS

2 H~ thBng ta chu-c thBng ke it Vi~t Nam hi~n nay

Can eu Lu~t T6 ehuc ChiOO phu 25 thang 12 nam 2001;

Can eu Lu~t Th6ng ke 17 thang nam 2003;

Can eu Nghi diOO s6 178/2007/ND-CP 03 thang 12 nam 2007 eua

Chinh phu quy diOO ehue nang, OOi~m V\l, quySn h~n va co c~u t6 ehue eua BQ,

co quan ngang BQ;

Can eu Nghi dinh s6 116/2008/ND-CP 14 thang 11 nam 2008 eua

Chinh phu quy diOO chue nang, nhi~m V\l, quySn h~n va co eftu t6 chue cua BQ

K~ ho~ch va f)~u tu;

QuySt dinh s6: 54/201 O/QD-TTg cua Thu tuOOg ehiOO phil vS Quy dinh

chile nang, nhi~m V\l, quySn h~n va co e~u t6 chuc eua T6ng C\lC Th6ng ke tn,re

thuQe BQ KS ho~eh va D~u tu ·

H~ th6ng t6 ehue th6ng ke dUQ'e t6 ehue h~ th6ng dQe tu Trung

uang dSn dja' phuong thea don vi hanh ehiOO, bao dam nguyen t~c t~p trung

th6ng nhftt, g6m co:

-aTrung uong co co quan T6ng cvc Th6ng ke;

-atinh, thaOO ph6 tn,re thuQC Trung uong co Cve Th6ng ke tn,re thuQc

T6ng eve Th6ng ke;

-a huy~n, qu~n, thi xa, ph6 thuQe tinh co Phong Th6ng ke tn,rc

thuQe CVe Th6ng ke tinh, ph6 tn,re thuQc Trung uong;

- a c~p xa, phuOng co ehuc danh chuyen mon th6ng ke va van phong

I

T6ng cvc Th6ng kS la ca quan trvc thuQc BQ k~ hoe;tch va d~u tu, thvc

hi~n chilc nang tham muu, giup BQ tru6ng BQ k~ hoe;tch va d~u tu qmin ly Nha

nu6c vS th6ng kS; Thvc hi~n ho~t dQng th6ng kS va cung d.p thong tin th6ng kS vS kinh t~, xa hQi cho cac ca quan, t6 chilc va ca nhan theo quy diOO cua phap

lu~t ,

Cvc th6ng kS la ca quan trvc thuQc T6ng cvc thdng kS, giup C\lC tru6ng T6ng cvc th6ng kS th6ng OO~t quan ly Nha nu6c vS hoe;tt d(>ng th6ng kS adia phuong; T6 c~c cac hOe;tt dQng th6ng kS theo chuong triOO cong tac cua T6ng cvc tru6ng T6ng cvc th6ng kS giao; fl6ng thai dap lrng nhu c~u thong tin th6ng ke tren dia ban

Phong th6ng kS qu~, huy~n la dan vi tIVC thuQc Cvc Th6ng kS, giup Cvc Th6ng kS t6 chilc triSn khai cac cUQc diSu tra th6ng kS, thvc hi~n ch~ dQ bao cao th6ng kS v6i C\lC Th6ng kS va laOO de;to c~p huy~n thee quy diOO

Chilc daOO chuyen mon th6ng kS va van phong UBND ac~p xa, phuOng, thi tran co trach nhi~m t6 chilc thvc hi~n cac cUQc diSu tra thdng kS va thvc hi~~

ch~ dQ bao cao th6ng kS thea quy dinh cua Nha nu6c

3 Nhi~m v\I ehll y~u ella thBng ke xii

Cong tac th6ng kS xa co y nghia quan trQng cung c~p sd li~u ban dAu tir

ca sa vS tinh hiOO kinh t~, xa hQi, liSn quan d~n d~i bQ ph~n dan cu

Cong tac th6ng kS xa vua phai dam bao nhu c~u thong tin cua c~p tren vua phai bao dam OOu c~u thong tin cua lanh de;to va nhan dan dia phuang v6i ySu c~u, h~ th6ng chi tiSu th6ng ke thi~t thvc phil hgp v6i tinh hinh t6 chuc va diSu ki~n chuySn d6i cO' ch~ quan ly hi~n

fliSu 31, Lu~t Thdng ke xac dinh: " VBND xa, phuOng, thi trein co tritch nhi¢m t6 chuc thvc hi¢n c6ng tac th6ng ke ph1;lC V1;l yeu cdu quan If; cua xa,

phuemg, thi trein; Thvc hi¢n cac cu<;5c di~u tra th6ng ke va chi a<;5 baa cao th6ng ke eLla nha nu'ac "

Th6ng ke xa co cac nhi~m vv sau day:

- Thl,l'c hi~n cac cUQc diSu tra va bao cao th6ng kS thea chuang triOO cong tac cua phong Th6ng kS huy~n va cung c~p s6 li~u ph\lc V\l ySu c~u lanh de;to cua

UBNDxa

- LUll trfr co h~ thdng va cung c~p s6 li~ll - Cong b6 sd li~u

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- ThuOng xuyen cung c6, gift m6i quan h~ m~t thiSt vO'i cac nganh chuyen mon cua xa va m:;mg lu6i cac hQ diSu tra m&u (nSu co)

- UBND xa, phuOng, thi tr~n co trach nhi~m t6 chuc cong tac th6ng ke va b6 I "'

tri nguai co du tieu chufrn chuyen mon, nghi~p Vl,l lam cong tac th6ng ke thea

chuc danh quy dinh hi~n hanh vS can bQ, cong chuc xa, phuOng, thi trein

1I Phlfo'ng phap th3ng ke

1 '"

1 Qua trinh nghien cuu th3ng ke

Cay-ho:;lt dQng th6ng ke dSu phai tdi qua ffiQt qua trinh gbm nhiSu giai

I

dO:;ln, nhiSu bu&c cong vi~c kS tiSp nhau, co lien quan ch~t nhe v6i Co thS

khai quat qua trinh b~ng ffiQt sa db nhu sau:

Thu th~p thong tin Xli ly thong tin Di~n giai, phan tich thong tin

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(Dieu tra thong ke) (Tong hqp thong ke) (Phein tich va dl! doan thong ke)

1.1 Di~u tra thBng ke

DiSu tra th6ng ke la vi~c t6 chuc mQt cach khoa hQc v6i ffiQt kS hO:;lch

th6ng nh~t vi~c thu th~p, ghi chep ngubn tai li~u th6ng ke ban d~u vS hi~n tU9'llg

nghien Clm diSu ki~n C\l thS vS thai gian, khong gian

- Ynghia cua diSu tra th6ng ke:

DiSu tra th6ng ke la giai do~ dAu cua qua trinh nghien Clm th6ng ke

nh~ffi: thu th~p s6 li~u mQt cach khoa hQc, co kS hO:;lch vS hi~n tUQng nghien

Clm thea h~ th6ng chi tieu da dugc xac dinh tru6c

Tai li~u thu th~p dugc la co sa dS tiSn hanh cac bu6c tiSp theo Dung lam co sa dS danh gia, dl)' bao

-D~c diSm cua diSu tra th6ng ke:

Quan sat s6 Ian: cung hk quan sat, ghi chep nhiSu hi~n tugng, cac dan vi

rieng Ie ca bi~t rbi t6ng hqp rut kSt lu~n chung

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TiSn hahh thea nQi dung, phuong phap khoa hQc th6ng nh~t

ThuOng co ph:;lm vi rQng, quan h~ trl)'c tiSp dSn qu~n chung

- Yeu c~u cua diSu tra th6ng ke:

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Cung c~p thong tin th6ng ke trung th\fc, chinh xaC,khaCfl quan, d~y du,

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kip thai va l11inh b?ch

Cac yeu c~u tren cua s6 li~u th6ng ke co quan h~ m~t thiSt v&i nhau, h6

trg khong thS thiSu mQt yeu c~u nao - Cac IO:;li diSu tra th6ng ke:

I

a Bao cao th6ng ke dinh kY (l~p bao cao tu s6 li~u ghi chep ban delu) b DiSu tra chuyen mon

- La hinh thuc diSu tra khong thuemg xuyen

Ap d\lng d6i vai nhiing hi~n tUQ'llg khong c6 diSu ki~n thu th~p s6 li~u bfu1g ~h~ dQ bao cao dinh kY

Truac khi diSu tra phai c6 Phuang an diSu tra (la van ban quy dinh nhiing v~n dS ckn giai qu~t ho~c ccln duqc th6ng nh~t, nhiing v~n dS vS chuful bi va t6 chuc toan bQ cUQC diSu tra) Phuang an g6m co: M\lc dich diSu tra, d6i tuqng diSu tra, dan vi diSu tra, nQi dung diSu tra, thai ky va thai diSm diSu tra, biSu m~u diSu tra va giai thich cach ghi biSu, k~ ho~ch diSu tra

+ Can cu vao tinh lien wc hay khong lien t\lC thu th~p s6 li~u chia ra: a DiSu tra thuemg xuyen: La thu th~p tai li~u mQt cach lien t\lc, dinh ky

thea thai gian

b DiSu tra khong thuong xuyen: Khong quy dinh vao mQt thai gian OO~t dinh rna ph\l thuQc vao yeu celu m6i cUQc diSu tra;

+ Can ell' vao ph~ vi diSu tra chia diSu tra toan bQ va diSu tra khong

toan be)

a DiSu tra toan bQ: La thu th~p tai li~u cua t6ng thS diSu tra khong 10':1i tm mQt don vi nao, OOien lo~i diSu tra doi hoi chi phi 1611

VD: T6ng diSu tra dan s6, t6ng diSu tra nong thon, nong nghi~p va thuy

san

b DiSu tra khong toan bQ: La thu th~p tai li~u cua mQt s6 don vi duqc chQn t6ng thS chung OO~m daOO gia d~c diSm cua hi~n tUqhg nghien cuu, chi phi diSu tra th~p han OOiSu so vai diSu tra toan bQ

DiSu tra khong toan bQ chia ra: DiSu tra ch9n mftu; DiSu tra tn;mg di~m; DiSu tra chuyen dS

- Cac phuong phap thu th~p tai li~u diSu tra th6ng ke:

+ Thu th~p tnJc ti~p

+ Thu th~p gian ti~p

- Nhfrng sai s6t thuemg g~p diSu tra th6ng ke:

+ Sai s6t chu quan cua diSu tra vien

+ Sai s6t t6 chuc diSu tra

- MQt s6 kinh nghi~m ph6ng v~n cae hQ (dan vi) diSu tra

+ Ccln giai thich r6 m\lc dich, yeu celu di~u tra d6i vai dan V! diSu tra;

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T i"li"1111 V ~11!:> ~~\,;rl ~l pnle"Q ~le~ lf~ ~C llU:U11C UCUI "'~'" ~Ull V ~ ~~, AJ.~Q.J.,

+ C6 phu<1I1g phap phong van thich hqp dBi vo; m8i dan vi di~u ~;

+·C6 $lg phb 000 d6i vo; cac h{> (nSu kinh phi cho phep) da dQng vien va tartg them trachnhi~m Clla dan vi di~u tra khai bao

.,.: 1.2 TAng h(}1J th8ng ke

Sau k~t qua clia qua trinh di~u tra th6ng ke nguCri ta thu dugc OOiing tai ,.-.­ li~u

tren m8i dan vi tAng thS Da c6 thS neu len m{>t sB djc tnmg chung clia tAng th8 thi phai tAng hqp cac tai li~u

TAng hgp ;hBng ke la giai do~ thll' clia qua triOO nghien CUu th6ng ke tihfun chinh Iy, h~ thBng hoa mQt cach khoa hQc cac tai li~u ban dAu thu th~p dugc di~u tra thBng ke, biSn cac djc tnrng ca hiet clia timg dan vi tAng tha

., , ,

thanh cac d~c diem chung cua tUng be} ph~ va toan be} tong the 'l1:ghien cUu TAng hgp th6ng ke mQt cach khoa hQc la co sa dS phan dch dUng din ban chAt cua hi~n tUgng nghien clm

Phuang phap chli ySu dS tAng hgp tiLi lieu- th6ng ke Ia phan tA thBng ke

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Phan to thong ke la vi~c t~p hgp cac don·vj'cua tong the co d~c diem giong hojc gful giBng OOau vao mQt tA

A h : A ' A ~ , ~ 4-L , A h h ~ ,

Tong gp thong ke·co the ben hanh hang IUU c,ong ,ay va.flg J1lay

TAnghgp h~g thli cong la vi~c phan lo~i, ghi dAu, aSm, "' TAng hgp h~g may vi tiOO la viec nh~p thong tindi~u tra dugc vao may vi tinh, sau may se tg dQng phan lo~i, tAng hgp theQ mQt chuang triOO phful

m~m dti duQ'c I~p va cai vao may

HiOO thll'c tA chll'c tAng hgp thBng ke co tha tAng hgp timg cAp tir dum len tren ho~c giao cho mQt sB trung tam may tiOO ~p trung theo khu vgc ho~c kSt hgp cahai

KSt qua tAng hgp thBng ke duqc trinh hay hfutg hang thBng ke

A 1.3 Phao tich ya d., doao th80g ke

,.~ Phantich va dv hao thBng ke duQ'c hiSu Ia vi~c neu len mQt cach tBng hgp

han chAt va tiOO quy lu~t cua hi~n tugng va qua trinh kiOO tS - xti hQi va tinh toan cac Inuc<dQ tuang laL nh~m dua OOihlg can cu cho quySt djnh quan IY

Phful tich thBng ke liL giai do~ ~uBi cimg Clla q~a trinh nghien ~lru th6ng ke Phan dch thBng ke chinh la hUn cho "con sB hiSt noi" '.'-c=

- NQi dung phan dch thBng ke ' - >

co me pnan tIcn tong nqp t1nh -h1nn noap tnann Ke no~cn, t1nn hlnhphat triSnkinh tS,'xiihQi cua'mQt dia p~uang hoJc'ca nuac Co thS phan dch chuyen dS mQt hi~n tuqng riao

- Nhiing vfut dS co ban khi phan tich thBng ke:

+ Phai dlJa van cae duemg IBi chinh sach Clia Dang, Nha nuac de phan tich

+ Phai xay d\lllg C\l thS yeu cdu nghien Cll'll phan dch

+ Phai can cu vao sB li~u thBng ke co dQ tin c~y cao da thu th~p dugc va phan'dch mBi ring bUQc giita cac hi~n tirqng

+ Phai I\la chQJ1 phuong phap va tai Ii~u thich hqp vai m\lC dich phan tich

+ Phai xac dinh va tinh toan h~ thBng chi tieu phan tich thich hqp v6i nQi dung _phan tich

+ D\l bao triSn vQng cua hi~n tUQ1lg, rUt kSt h$l, kiSn nghi

2 Phuong phap phan ncb mi}t s8 chi tieu thang ke

2.1 sa tuy~t d8i

*' Khai nl~m: sA !Uy~t d8i th6ng ke la muc dQ biSu hi~n quy mo, khBi luQl1g cua hi~n tUQl1g diSu ki~n thai gian va dia diSm Cl) thS

* DJc diSm:

, , , ,

- ]\.1·ai so tuy~t doi trol1g thOIlg ke bao ham rnQt nQi dung kinh te - xa hQi c\i

thS diSu ki~~ thai gian va dia diSm nhdt dinh

-Cac sB tuy~t dBi thBng ke khong phai la mQt sB qugc h!a chon my

,­

y, ma phiLi qua diSu tra thBng ke va tBng hgp mQt cach khoa hQ,t

* Cac lo~ sB tuy~t dBi: '

-SB tuy~t dBi thm k)r: Pharr arm quy mo, khBi IUQ1lg cuahi~n tugng nghien

CUll dQ dfli thm gian nhdt dinh No hinh thong qua S\l dch lily vS

luQl1g cua hi~n tUQl1g suBt thm gian nghien Clm

VD: San luQl1g lua xii A san xUdt nam 20091a 30.000 tfut

- SB tuy~t dBi th?Ji 'diSm: Pharr arm quy mo, khBi luQ1lg cua hi~n tUQl1g nghien Clm vao mQt thai diSm nhdt dinh SB tuy~t dBi thai diSm chi phan arm tinh hinh cua hi~n tugng t~i mQt thai diSm mlo do, tru6c hoJc' sau tr~g thai hi~n tUQl1g dii thay dBi khac Do v~y, muBn co s6 tUy~t dBi thai diSm chinh xac~ phai quy

" ' , , , ' ""

dinh thai diem l1Q'P ly va phai to chuc dieu tra kip tl1cri

VD: TBng sB dan Vi~t Nam vao luc gia 01/4/2009 1~:8-P.846.997

nguoi

2.2 sa tUO'Dg dBi

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~

I

*Khai ni~m: 86 tuong d6i th6ng ke bi~u hi~n quan h~ so sanh gifra hai mue dQ ella hi~n tuqng nghien eUu Do la kSt qua cua vi~e so sanh gifra hai chi tieu th6ng ke cung 10:;li nhung khac v~ di~u ki~n thcri gian hay khong gian,

ho~c gifra hai chi tieu th6ng ke khae 10:;li nhung co lien quan dSn

VD: Gia tri san xu~t Nang nghi~p eua xa A nam 2010 so v6i nam 2009 bing 115%

* Ca~ lo?i s6 rong d6i:

Q S6 tuang iloi ar}ng thai

La kSt qua so sanh hai mue dQ cung 10:;li cua hi~n tuqng ahai thai kY hay hai thai di~m khae nhau, s6 tuong d6i dQng thai phan anh hi~n sg phat tri~n ella hi~n tuqng qua thai gian

C6ng thue: t= l ix100 hay t= 2i

Yo Yo

t: 86 tuong d6i dQng thai

Yl: Mire dQ ky nghien elm

Yo: Mue dQ ky g6c

VD : Di~n tich gieo tr6ng cay hang nam ella mQt dia phuong nam 2009 la 200.000 ha, nam 2010 la 220.000 Ta tinh dugc s6 tuong d6i d(>ng thai:

-­

1= 220.000 xlOO =110% hay 1, l~n 200.000

b S6 luang il6i ki hor;zch: Dugc dung d~ l~p cae kS hO:;leh va ki~m tra tinh

hinh thge hi~n kS ho?eh Co hai 10:;li s6 tuong d6i kS hO:;leh:

b1 86 tuang d6i nhi~m V\l kS ho?ch: la kSt qua so sanh gifra mlfe d(> efut d:;tt t6'i eua chi tieu nao kY kS hO:;lch v6i mue d(> thge tS eua chi tieu ~y cr ky g6c

Cong thuc: K ==

17 YK xIOO

))0

t '

~ Kn : 86 tuang d6i nhi~m V\l kS hO:;lch

Yk : Mue d(> kS hO:;leh

Yo: Muc d(> thgc tS ky g6c so sanh

VD : Di~n tieh gieo tr6ng cay hing nam eua xa Hung Thfulg nfun 2010 Ii 200.000 ha, k~ ho~eh dV ki~n nam 2011 Ii 210.000 S6 tuang d6i nhi~m V\l

k~ ho~eh vS di~n tieh gieo tr6ng cay hing nam Ii:

K = 210.000 xlOO = 105% hay 1 05 l~n

n 200.000 '

b2 S6 tuang d6i hoan thinh k~ ho~eh: k~t qua so sanh gifra mile dQ kY thve

t~ vi mile dQ kY k~ ho~eh

~

( 1l xlOO

Cong thuc: K ==

Yk

KT : S6 tuang d6i th1,fe hi~n (hoin thinh) k~ ho~eh

YI : Mile dQ kY thve t~

Yk : Mile dQ ky k~ ho~eh

VD : Gia S11 k~t thue nam 2011, di~n tieh gieo tr6ng cay hang nam eua xa Hung Th~ng nam 2011 Ii 220.000 V~y ph~n tram hoim thinh k~ ho~eh eua

xa Hung Th~ng nam 2011 hi:

K = 220.000 xl 00 = 104 76%

(210.000 '

c 86 tuang d6i kit cdu: Xae dinh ty trQng eua m6i bQ ph?n du thanh mQt t6ng thS S6 tuang d6i k~t e~u Ii k~t qua so sanh tri s6 tuy~t d6i eua tung bQ

ph~n vai trj s6 tuy~t d6i eua ea t6ng thS

S6 tuang S6 tuy~t d6i eua bQ ph?n

== x 100

d6i k~t e~u(%)

S6tuy~td6ieuat~ngth~

VD: T6ng dan s6 ea nu6e (vio gia ngiy 01/4/2009) Ii 85.846.997 ngl.lai, nam Ii 42.413.143 nguai, nil Ii 43.433.854 nguai => ta se co hai s6 tuetng d6i kSt c~u:

Ty I~ nam t6ng 42.413.143

x 100 49,4%

dan s6 85.846.997 Ty I~ nil t6ng 43.433.854

x 100 == 51,6% dan s6 85.846.997

T6ng eQng cae s6 tuong d6i k~t c~u eung mQt t6ng thS phai b~ng 100%

~

6;: 'i

~

?

."

d s6 tuong d6i cuimg de}: la bi~u hi~n trinh dQ ph6 biSn cua hi~n tm;mg di~u ki~n lich sil nhftt dinh S6 tuong d6i cUOng dQ la kSt qua so 8anh muc

-,~

,"';

j

\~

-'\.­

d<) eua hai hi~n tUQ11g khac nhau nhung co quan h~ vo·i

Hinh thuc bieu hi~n cua 86 tuong d6i cUOng dQ la don vi kep ( don vi cua til va m~u s6 hgp thanh)

~

S6tuong d6i cUOng dQ

S6 tuy~t d6i cua hi~n

tUQ11g A

S6 tuy~t d6i cua hi~n

tUQ11g B

VD: M~t dQ dan 86,86 bac sy tren 1000 dan,

d.S6 tuang d6i kh6ng gian: bieu hi~n quan h~ so sanh giua cac hi~n tUQ11g cling 10~i nhung khac v~ khong gian ho?c gifra hai bQ ph~ cling mQt t6ng the

VD: So smh gifra di~n tich d~t gieo tr6ng cay hang nam cua xa A so v&i xa

B; so sanh di~n tich gieo tr6ng cay hang nam v\l xuan so vai V\l he thu

2.3 SB truog bloh (sB blob quao)

S6 binh quan th6ng ke bieu hi~n muc dQ d~i bi~u theo mQt tieu thuc nao mQt dan vi t6ng th~

a Trung binh ce}ng giim dan: Tinh b~ng cong thuc s6 binh cQng

-t-oan fiQc -~ ~t+-*r+-=+xn hay; =-f;x7n

n i=l

Trong do: ~ la s6 binh quan

Xi ( i = 1,2, n) la cac lUQ11g biSn

n: 1a s6 dan vi t6ng th~

VD: Cho tai li~u v~ nang suftt lao dQng (NSLD) eua cong nhan lTIQt t6 g6m cong nhan nhu salt:

Cong nhan A B C D E f' G

NSLD (san ph~m) 50 51 53 55 60 63 67

x= 50 + 51 + 55 + 60 + 63 + 67 =57 san phim

f)i~u ki~n v~ dVng: dung d~ tinh muc dO binh quan gian don cua cac

chi tieu tai li~u thu th~p chi co it, khong co phan t6, t~n s& cua cac Iuqng

~

- bi~n d~u bfulg mot ho~c b~ng

I

b Trung binh c¢ng gia quy~n: Su dVng cac Iugng bi~n co thS g~p nhi~u

'";'

l~n, v&i t&n s6 khac

~ n

Ix;./;

- x]~ + x,J; + + xnfn

x = - hay ~ = ;=~ = IM; I f; (d~t M; = x/f;)

~+f2+···+fn If;

i=l

Trong do: fi (i = 1,2, ,n) Ia quy~n s6 (tAn s&)

Xi ( i = 1,2, n) Ia cac Iuqng bi~n

~ Ia s6 binh quan

-> Binh quan cQng giim don Ia mot truang hQ'P cua binh quan cong gia quySn

khi f] == f2 == ••• = fn•

VD: Co tai Ii~u vS di~n tfch va nang su~t thu ho~ch t~i xa K thing 6/2010

nhu sau:

Ten than Nang suat thu ho~ch (tan/ha) Di~n tich (ha)

A 200

B 400

C 500

D 6,5 300

E 8,5 600

T6ng 2.000

Tinh nang su~t thu ho~ch binh quan cua xa K thang 6/2010

Giai: Sir dVng congthuc tren ta tinh duQ'c nang su~t Ilia thu ho~ch binh quan Ia:

~ -= 5x200 + 7x400 + 6x500 + 6,5x300 + 8,5x600 = 925 t~n/ha

2.000 '

If

?

c Trung binh c¢ng di~u hod

Do khong co s~n tai Ii~u vS s6 don vi t6ng th~ => phai dva vaG cac tai Ii~u

khac d~ dnh (khong co £1 chi co Xi, xiii)

n

X = All +M2 + +Mn - IA1;

M Al? M hay x = _'==]_~_~~

_+ + +_n n 1

,

-1

n X

Xl X? _ X I-M1=] I

Xi (i=l ,2, ,n) cae luqng biSn

~: s6 binh cn:an

VD: Co tai li~u v~ san luqng va nang su~t thu ho~eh t~i xa A thang 6/2010 nhu sau:

Ten thon Nang su~t thu ho~eh (tfuvha) San luqng (tan)'

A 1.000

B 2.800

C 3.000

D 6,5 1.950

E 8,5 ~ 100

I Tinh nang suat thu ho~eh binh quan eua xa A thang 6/2010 Sir d\lng cong thue tren:

N ~t b'nh " - 1.000+2.800+3.000+1.950+5.100 - 6 02 t~n/h

ang sua 1 quan - 1.000 2.800 3.000 1.950 5.100 - , a a

- - + - - + - - + - - + - ­

5 6 6,5 8,5

* S6 binh quan di~u hoa gian don

Trong truong hqp M1 = M2 = = Mn (Mi b~ng nhau) thi ta co:

n

x = -17-~1 n: s6 cae luqng biSn

I­

1=1 X,

~ : s6 binh quan

I l :d~i luqng nghieh dao eua luQng biSn Xi

Xi

Vi dV: Hai t6 eong nhan cling sim xu~t mQt lo~i san phc1m thai gian nhu Trong t6 1m6i eong nhan san xu~t ffiQt san phc1m hSt 15 phut, at6 hai

=~

' " ,

m6i eong nhan san xu~t ffiQt san phc1m hSt 18 phut Hay tinh thai gian hao phi

-\;j

binh quan d@ san xu~t mQt san phc1m eua eong nhan t6

Giiii: vi d\l tren cho ta biSt

LUQ'ng biSn Xi : 18 thai gian hao phi eua m6i eong nhan d@ san xu~t don

vi san phc1m

¢ Chua bi~t fi: s6 lUQng san phc1m m6i cong nhan san xu~t Ap dVng cong

thuc ta co:

:;

x = = 16,36 phut

- + - :lI_

::: l~

15 18

d s6binh qudn nhdn

La s6 hinh quan cua nhUng d~i lUQ'llg co quan h~ tich s6 v&i

* S6 hinh quan nhan gian dan

~= VX !.X2 X3···xn hay ~= ~nXi

Trong do: Xi (i = 1,2, ,n) cac lUQ'llg hiSn

~: s6 hinh quan

n: kY hi~u tich s6

VD: T6c dQ phcit triSn cua mQt xa vS t6ng s6 nhan khc1u hinh quan ca nfun nhu sau:

Nam 2004 so v6'i nam 2003 = 116% Nam 2005 so v6i nam 2004 = 111 %

Nam 2006 so v&i nam 2005 = 112% Nam 2007 so v6i nam 2006 == 113% Naill 2008 so v&i nam 2007 == 112%

NalTI 2009 so v&i nam 2008 == 111 %

Hay tinh t6c dQ phcit triSn hang nam vS s6 nhan khc1u binh quan ca nam Ap d\lng cong thuc trcn ta co:

~ = V1,16x1,11x1,12x1,13x1,12x1,11 = 1, 125 hay 112,5%

*s6 hinh quan n1}an gia quySn:

Khi cac luqng hi~n Xi co cac t~n s6 fj khac nhau, ta co cong thuc s6 binh quan ::­ nhan gia quySn:

- = ~x Ji X 12 X 13 X In = L1nX J,

X l · 2 • 3 ••• n i

~

2.4 Day sa thiri gian

2.4.1 KI,lii ni?m

Day s6 thai gian la day cac s6 li~u th6ng kc cua hi~n tuqng nghicn cuu duQ'c s~p x~p thea thu t\I thai gian Day s6 thai gian cho ta hi~t hinh anh bi~n dQng eua hi~n tuqng nghien clru

VD 1: C6 tai li~u vS san luqng lila thu ho?eh ella mqt dia phuong

qua cae nalTI nhu sau:

I

' Thai gian 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

San lUQTIg lila (t~n) 2080 2410 2800 3030 3500

-=

~~

Day so thai gian gam 2 phan:

- Ph~n ehi tieu: Quy rno, kh6i luqng, t6e dq phat tri~n ella hi~n tUQTIg qua

thai gian Mile d<) cua chi tieu dugc kY hi~u la Yi

- Ph§.n thai gian: Ngay, thang narn

YSu t6 thai gian du<)'e 5~P xSp thea thil t\! thai gian kS tiSp nhau, e6 th~ la

ngay, tu~n, thang, quy, nam

2.4.2 Phlin IOf!.i day sa thm gian

- Day 56 thai k)r: Bi~u hi~n quy rno, kh6i lUQTIg eua hi~n tUQTIg tUng

khoang thai gian nh~t dinh

- Day 56 thai di~m: Bi~u hi~n quy rno, kh6i lUQTIg eua hi~n tUQTIg t?i nhfrng

thai diSm nh~t dinh

VD2: C6 tai li~u vS tinh hinh t6n kho eua m<)t HTX X quy I nam

2010 nhu sau:

I

2.4.3 Cae cfti tieu pftlin tich day sa thm gian

2.4.3.1 Mute up binh quan tl1eo thO'i gian: phan anh mue dO d~i di~n cho cac

mile dq tuy~t d6i eua day thai gian

• nJi Vu; dav sa thm kv

n

~"J

YI + Y2 + + Yn 'v

- 1=]

y == == - - - ­

n n

\

-

\~ Trang d6 Yi (i = 1,2, ,n) la eae mile <1q ella day 56 th.ai k5'

~

n: 56 eae mile dq nghien elm

y : lTIUC dQ binh quan thea thai gian VD: Tu VD 1ta co :

Ngay/thang 1-1 1-2 1-3 1-4

Gia tri hang ton kho

(tri~u d6ng) 35,6 36,4 37

3 r }

2080 + 2410 + 2800 + 3030 + 3500

y = =2764 t~n

5

• lJai vOi diiv sa thiti diJnt

~

Diiv s6 thai diim co khoang each thai gian bang ! bi~t tri s6 cua tieu

,

thuc a rnQt thai di~ln

n-l

(Y1 + YnJ{ + .?:Yi Y;{ + Y2 + + Yn-l + Yj{

1=2 y=

n-l n-l

y : tuue dQ binh quan thea thai gian

Yi: la cac muc dQ cua day s6 thai diSm co thai gian bllng n: s6 cac muc dQ nghien cUu

35,% + 36,4 + 37 + 35,%,

Tu VD2 tren: Y = 2 4 -1 2 =36,27 tri~u d6ng => tri gia hang t6n kho binh quan hang thang la 36,27 tri~u d6ng

- Vai diiy s6 thili diim co khoang each thai gian kh6ng bang nhau, biSt lugng

biSn aInQi thai di~m

In yJi

y = Y1(1_ _ _+ Y2(2 -= = _ _+ , ~~~'L+ Yntn - _ l ~

11

11 + 12 + + t l1

'"' L-./ t.1

1

(trong do ti (i== 1,2, ,n) la khoang thai gian co mire d<) Yi(i=l ,2, n»).­

VD: Co tai li~u v~ s6'lao dQng cua mQt h9P tac xa thang 4/2010nhu sau: Ngay 1/4 co 400 nguai

Ngay 10/4 nh~n thelTI nguai

Ngay 15/4 nh~n thelTI ngu'O'i !

Ngay 21/4, nguai thoi vi~c va tu do cho d~n hSt thang (30/4) nam 2010 s6 lao dQng khong thay d6i

¢ Yeu c~u: tinh s6 lao dQng binh qWln thang 4/2010

Giili: Tir bai cho ta co

Thai gian I Khoang cach thai gian (ti) I S6 lao dong (Yi)

Til 1/4 d~n 9/4/2010 400

Tu 10/4 den 14/4/2010 405

Tu 15/4 dSn 20/4/2010 408

Tu 21/4 den 30/4/2010 10 406

~ y~y so lao dQng binh quan thang nam 2010 la:

400 x9 + 405 x5 + 408 x6 + 406 xlO

y = 9 + 5 + 6 + 10 =404 lao dQng

2.4.3.2 Llf(1ng tling giam tuy?t ilai

a Llf(1ng tling (giam) tuy?t itai lien Itoan: Phim anh S\l biSn dQng vS mue dQ tuy~t d6i giua thai 10' liSn OOau va dUQ'e tiOO theo eong thue sau:

0; =Y; - Yi-l (v6i i = 2, ,n)

Trong do: Yi Ii muc dQ athai gian i

Yi-l : La lTIUC de) athairgian i-I

0; :luqng tang (ho~e giam) tuy~t d6i lien hoan & thOi gian i so v6i thai gian liSn tru6e i-I

NSu Yi > Yi-l thi 0; >0 phan aOO quy mo eua hi~n tuqng tang NSu Yi < Yi-l thi 0; <0 phan aOO quy mo eua hi~n tuqng giam

VD: tu s6 li~u VD1ta co:

O2 = Y2 - YI = 2410 - 2080 =330 (t~n)

03 = Y3 - Y2 = 2800 - 2410 = 390 (tfuI)

04 = Y4 - Y3 = 3030 - 2800 = 230 (tful) 85= Ys - Y4 = 3500 - 3030 = 470 (t~n)

b Llf(1ng tling (giam) tuy?t itai itinh gac: Phan aOO mue dQ tuY~t'd6i nhfing khoang thai gian dai va dU'gc tiOO thea c6ng thuc sau

V'··

Ll i i I ==y -y 01 = 12, , ,n

Trong do: Yi: la mue dQ tuy~t d6i athai gian i YI: la mue dQ tuy~t d6i athai gian d~u

~i: luqng tang giam tuy~t d6i diOO g6e &thai gian i so v6i thai gian d~u eua day s6

Til VD A ta co: ~2 = Y2 - YI =2410 - 2080 =330 (t~n)

~4 = Y4 - Yl = 3030 - 2080 = 950 (tcln)

~s= Ys- Yl = 3500 - 2080 = 1420 (tcln)

.J •

c LU'f/1'lg tling (giam) tUYit itai binll qulin: pharr anh mue dQ d~i di~n ella cae luc;mg tang (ho~e giam) tuy~t d6i lien hoan va duge tinh theo eong thue

sau:

8 =82 +83 + +8n =~ =Yn - Yl

n-l n-l n-l

- 3500 - 2080 ,

Tu VDl tren ta co: = -1 = 355 tan

Tue la giai do~n tir 2006 d~n 2010 sfm lugng Ilia dfi tang binh quan hang nam la 355 t&n

2.4.3.3 Tac itv phat triin

T6e dQ phcit triSn la lo~i chi tieu tuang d6i dQng thai, biSu hi~n S\l thay d6i eua hi~n tugng thea thm gian Tuy thea m\le dich nghien elm co hai lo~i t6e dQ phat triSn sau:

a Tac av phat triJn lien hoan (tj): Phan anh t6e dQ va xu hu6ng bi~n dQng ella hi~n tugng giiia thai ky liSn (tinh bfutg Ifrn ho~e %)

Yi Yi

( , = hay (, == xlOO (vai i == 2,3, ,n)

Y i - I Y i - I

Yj: mue dQ tuy~t d6i thai gian i

Yi-': mue dQ tuy~t d6i thai gian i-I

tj: t6e dQ phcit triSn lien hoan thai gian i so v6i thai gian i-I Tir VDl ta co: t2 = Y2/Yl = 2410/2080 = 1,159 1fin hay 115,9%

t3 :=; Y3/Y2 = 2800/241 0 = 1,162 lfin hay 116,2%

t4 = Y4/Y3 = 3030/2800 = 1,082 1fin hay 108,2%

ts = Ys/Y4 = 3500/3030 = 1,155 lfin hay 115,5%

b Tac itV pl'llit triJn itjnll gac (Tj) : Phan anh t6e dQ va xu hu6ng bi~n:dQng

eua hi~n tugng gifra nhUng khoang thai gian dai

T, = ~hay T = ~xl00 (v6i i = 2,3, ,n)

Yl Yl

Til VDl ta co: T2= Y2/Yl = 2410 I 2080 = 1,159 IAn hay 115,9%

T3 = yiYl =2800 12080 = 1,346 IAn hay 134,6% T4 = yJYl = 3030 I 2080 = 1,457 IAn hay 145,7%

Ts =YS/Yl ~ 3500 I 2080 = 1,683 IAn hay 168,3%

c rae ilp phdt tri2n binh qufln: phan 3nh muc dQ d~i di~n cua cac t6c dQ phat

tri~n lien hoim

t == n-4t2t3 ••• t n nifT: == n-"l/ Yn

YI

3500

- - 5_1/ = ~1,683 =1,139 hay 113,9%

Tit VDI ta co: t - • 2080

T6c dQ phat triBn biOO quan himg nam v~ san Iuqng Ilia = 1,139 Ian hay 113,9%

2.4.3.4 rae tIP tang hope giam

Chi tieu phan anh qua thai gian hi~n tuqng dti tang ho~c giam bao nhieu

IAn ho~c bao OOieu phAn tram Tuy thea m\lC dich, co thB tinh cac t6c dQ tang

ho~c giam sau:

a rae ilp tang hope giam lien hoan: Phan 3nh t6c dQ tang ho~c giam a-thai

gian i so vm thai gian i-I

8 I Y; - Y;-1 t 1 "

a I = = ; - (ho~c ti- 100(%) neu t tinh b~g %)

Yi-l Yi-l

b rae ilp tang hope giam ilinh gae: phan 3nh t6c dQ tang ho~c giam athai gian i so vm gian dAu day sB

Ai = A; = Y; - Yl = T; -1 (ho~ Ti-l00 (%) neu T tiOO bing %)

Yl ~ Yl

e rae ilp tang hope giam binh qufln: phan 3nh tBc dQ tang ho~c giam d~i

di~n cho cac tBc dQ_tang ho~c giam lie.? holm

a = t - 1 (hay a =t -1 00(%) neu t tinh b~g %)

2.4.3.5 Gid tTi tUYft ilai eua 1% tae tIP tang hope giiim lien hoan'

Chi tieu phan 3nh cu 1% tang (giam) cua tBc dQ tang (ho~c giam) lien hoim thi tuong tcng v6"i mQt tri sB tuy~t dBi Ia bao OOieu