25294 climate change (1)

Alexander Fröde Le Anh Tuan Adaptation to Climate Change in the Buffer Zone of Phong Nha – Ke Bang National Park, Vietnam Report Table of Contents List of Abbreviations Register of Figures and Tables Error! Bookmark not defined Introduction Objectives and Method Climate Change in Vietnam and the Project Region The PNKB Buffer zone and its development plan 11 Consideration of Climate Change in the BZDP Context 11 Conclusions from the Climate Proofing for Development 13 Recommendations 24 References 28 Annex 1: Suggestions for amending the text of the BZDP 30 Annex 2: Steps for CP4Dev in the Buffer Zone Dev Planning 33 Annex 3: Timetable 35 Annex 4: Climate Proofing Table 37 List of Abbreviations BMZ German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development BZDP Buffer Zone Development Plan CC Climate Change CMOP Commune Market- Orientated Planning CP4Dev Climate Proofing for Development CTU Can Tho University DRAGON Delta Research And Global Observation Networks FFI Fauna and Flora International GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH GRaBS Green and Blue Space Adaptation for Urban Areas and Eco Towns HNN Him-Nam-No IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISPONRE Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature KfW Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (German Development Bank) MART Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development moSEDP market-orientated Socio-Economic Development Plans M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action NGO Non-Governmental Organization NRM Natural Resources Management NTP-RCC National Target Programme to Respond to Climate Change NTFP Non-Timber Forest Products ODA Official Development Assistance PA Protected Area PRA Participatory Rural Appraisal PNKB Phong Nha-Ke Bang National Park SEDP Socio-Economic-Development-Planning VDP/CDP Village Development Plang / Communal Development Plan WWF World Wide Fund for Nature Introduction Vietnam is considered as one of the countries most adversely affected by climate change (Peter and Greet, 2008; Dasgupta el al., 2009; IPCC, 2007; UNDP, 2007; WB, 2007; ADB, 1994) According to the Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment (ISPONRE 2009), during the last 50 years, Vietnam’s annual average surface temperature has increased by approximately 0.5 - 0.7°C, while the sea level along its coastline has risen by approximately 20 cm The El-Niño and La-Niña phenomena have caused increasingly adverse impacts on Vietnam Climate change has resulted in more severe and/or frequent occurrences of natural disasters, especially cyclonic storms, floods and droughts becoming more extreme in Vietnam In general, the impacts of climate change are heavy on the agricultural sector and water sources of Vietnam Combined with poverty and a lack of capacity to address these impacts, a wide range of economic sectors and geographic regions will be affected by climate change Estimates predict that one-meter sea-level rise would affect about eleven percent of Vietnam’s population, nearly five percent of land in coastal areas will be submerged, and about ten percent of the GDP of the country will be lost Vietnam has made strong commitments to combat against climate change, for instance through its ratification of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the approval of the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change, and recently the announcement of the Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Vietnam Recognizing potential and long term and widely spatial impacts of climate change, Vietnam has looked forward to develop its long term policies on, and clear-sighted vision in, climate change mitigation and adaptation endeavors Vietnam has attached much more significance to the mainstreaming of climate change responsive solutions into national socio-economic development strategies, policies and plans with a view to achieve sustainable development of the country However, the country is struggling due to a lack of climate data, missing strategies, funds, human resources, and experiences to develop sustainable and long-term adaptation options The central coastal area with its complex geography will be one of the areas, which are most effected by climate change Quang Binh is a province located in the North of Central Vietnam, stretching from 16,055' to 18,005' degrees north latitude and from 105,037' to 107,000' degrees east parallel The province borders are Ha Tinh in the North, Quang Tri in the South, Lao People’s Democratic Republic in the West and the East Sea in the East (Figure 1) Quang Binh has a natural area of 8051.8 km2 and a population of 831,600 habitants (2007) The topography of Quang Binh is very narrow and slope from west to east, mountains and hills are concentrated to 85 percent in the west The south west wind blows strongly through the Truong Son Mountain Rank, the natural border between Vietnam and Lao, leading a hot and dry weather in the summer time The province has sandy coastal beaches stretching along the sea There are five main rivers in Quang Binh, i.e Roon River, Gianh River, Ly Hoa River, Dinh River and Nhat Le River There are many underground rivers flowing under the limestone mountains, their lengths are not be known exactly yet Most of the rivers and streams in Quang Binh province are short and steep, so they have strong and speed flows in the rainy seasons The province is well-known for its numerous beautiful natural spots like Phong Nha Cave, Tien Son Cave, Nhat Le beach, Da Nhay beach, and Bang hot stream Quang Binh was very proud when Vietnam’s National tourist side, the Phong Nha-Ke Bang National Park (PNKB) has been recognized as an UNESCO World Natural Heritage The PNKB National Park is situated in the districts of Bo Trach, Minh Hoa and Quang Ninh, in the western part of the Quang Binh province (Figure 2) It is a limestone zone bordering the Hin Namno Nature Reserve in the province of Khammouan, Lao by the west The PNKB National Park covers more than 2,000 km2 of the Quang Binh territory and borders on the Hin Namno limestone zone of about 2,000 km2 of the Khammouan territory The National Park covers a total area of 85,754 Figure Quang Binh Administrative Map (Source: http://web.vietecon.org/sedec/solieu/bando/m-quangbinh.htm) The proposed project area consists of a core area including the PNKB National Park and two additional areas of natural forest, which will hopefully step by step be added to the National Park This would include another area of 33,000 and a buffer zone of ca 225,000 ha, consisting of parts of 13 adjacent communes in three districts of Bo Trach, Minh Hoa In addition to the impacts of climate change the biodiversity of the PNKB National Park suffers due to logging and poaching It is expected that higher temperatures and erratic rainfalls will most likely lead to longer and more extensive dry periods and to an increase of forest fires This could affect the development and conservation of the National Park’s biodiversity, the natural resources of the area and the livelihood of its local people On behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), GIZ implements the project “Nature Conservation and Sustainable Management of Natural Resources in the Phong Nha-Ke Bang Region” The project supports the Quang Binh province and the National Park region to formulate a Buffer Zone Development Plan (BZDP), which aims to harmonize sustainable economic development and biodiversity conservation The plan should include the impacts of climate change on the area and further actions to support development and conservation Figure Map of Phong Nha-Ke Bang National Park Objectives and Method The aim of the mission was to contribute to the integration of climate change considerations in the BZDP of the PNKB National Park by achieving the following objectives: x Analyse the relevance of climate change for the BZDP and raise awareness about the impacts of climate change x Analyse the risks climate change poses to the goals of the BZDP and the three sub-plans using the Climate Proofing for Development method x Provide recommendations on how the risks of climate change can be reduced and how targeted activities for adaptation to climate change can be planned in the buffer zones of the PNKB National Park, and how opportunities, which may arise through climatic change, can be capitalised on x Provide recommendations on how climate change impacts can be considered systematically in buffer zone development and planning, also beyond the PNKB National Park in other GIZ projects in the fields of climate change and management of natural resources Annex contains the timetable of the mission The team consisted of: x Alexander Fröde, Senior Project Advisor Climate Change, Eschborn, Germany (international expert) x Dr Le Anh Tuan, Senior Lecturer, Research Institute for Climate Change - Can Tho University (Dragon Institute - Mekong), Vietnam (national expert) During the mission, GIZ’s method Climate Proofing for Development was deployed Climate Proofing for Development (CP4Dev) is an approach to integrate climate change aspects into development planning It permits analysis of development measures with regard to current and future climate change opportunities and challenges The approach can be applied at national, sectoral, local and project level, be it in the initial planning phase or when revising a plan Properly implemented, it makes a given plan or investment more ‘climate-proof’ The method is described in detail in GTZ (2010) For the use in the context of Buffer Zone Planning in a biodiversity context in the PNKB National Park it was slightly adapted (“conservation effect” instead of “bio-physical effect”, “development effect” instead of “socio-economic effect” – this led to a higher accuracy of analysis) The CP4Dev method was already used by GIZ in Vietnam in the Tra Vinh Province for Commune MarketOrientated Planning (CMOP) and market-orientated Socio-Economic Development Plans (moSEDP) The method consists of steps: x (1) Analyse adaptation needs; x (2) Select feasible adaptation options; and x (3) Integrate selected adaptation options into CMOP/ moSEDP The use of Climate Proofing for Development in this project was carried out in cooperation with the DRAGON Institute of Can Tho University in 2009, which conducted a survey on perception of climate change impacts among local stakeholders and developed climate change risk maps and charts for the Tra Vinh Province In contrary to Tra Vinh’s, where the activities were based on intensive work with communities, an expert approach was taken before activities have been started in the PNKB National Park The following lessons from the application of the method in Tra Vinh were collected (Georg Deichert, Director of GIZ Tra Vinh): It has proven difficult to carry out the method on community-level without external support after the end of the implementation of the pilot project Some persons mentioned that the manual was being rather complicated and too many climate change effects are being analyzed Only steps and of task (see manual) were integrated in the standard procedures for the communal planning process Since the evaluation workshop in December 2010 no further activities seem to have been carried out It is planned in Tra Vinh to also use the method on other level than the village level (provincial, district), but this has not been done yet It is not sure yet whether climate-related content in village planning will enter the planning on the higher planning levels Furthermore, in the pilot application in Tra Vinh the process for adaptation to climate change was pursued separately from the planning process, leading to challenges regarding integration It was criticized that no coherent quality standards were established in the process It was mentioned that some of the measures not target the most important climate change impacts and beeing questionable from a sustainable development point of view, e.g the use of chemical fertilizer as measure of adaptation to climate change Since April 2010, a new GIZ-project focuses on nature conservation in the Him Nam No National Biodiversity Area in Lao, adjacent to the PKNB National Park The CP4Dev method was applied for the project Due to the ecological and geomorphologic similarities of the two project regions, results from this analysis were be partly used for the PNKB National Park The mission was meant to give a first overview on relevant climate impact chains in the project region and possibilities to integrate these into the BZDP, and to give a pragmatic rather than a scientific analysis It was clearly recognised that in the limited time frame, collection of new data was subject to limits, not all aspects could have been dealt with in much detail and a continuous participation in the buffer zone planning process was not possible It was not the primary objective of this mission to develop new and additional adaptation measures, but to assess the BZDP from a climate change perspective and point to critical points and criteria of success from a climate change perspective However for specific new problems, new responses needed to be developed Other available plans, especially district development plans were used as sources for the assessment In order to deliver a clearly focussed result, the team worked with some different timelines However, it needs to be stressed that the impacts of climate change depend on many current and future developments which cannot be foreseen with certainty Climate Change in Vietnam and the Project Region Vietnam, an S-shaped, long-narrow land, spanning the length of South East Asia’s East Sea coast, is located in the tropical monsoon climatic region The location and topography of Vietnam make it one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, suffering from typhoons, tropical storms, floods, drought, seawater intrusions, landslides and forest fires (Jegillos et al., 2005) According to a report on the Global Climate Risk Index 2011 by Germanwatch, Vietnam is ranked in the most natural disaster and climate change affected countries after El Salvador, Chinese Taipei and the Philippines Over past 50 years, it is found that the average annual temperature in Vietnam has increased from the Northern to Southern of Vietnam (MONRE 2010) The average annual rainfall for the whole country have decreased during the last 40 years, however the spatial and temporal change of rainfall patterns have effected significantly the agriculture, aquaculture and forestry The raising of sea levels could submerge thousands hectares of mangrove forest land, the beaches, the coastal villages and could lead to saline intrusion thus threatening rice production dramatically x Climate change in Vietnam could threat the achievement of poverty reduction projects, socioeconomic development and sustainable development of the country In order to response the potential climate change impacts, the National Target Programme to Respond to Climate Change (NTP-RCC) of Vietnam has developed and approved by the Prime Minister on the 12th of December in 2008 in terms of Decision No 158/2008/QD-TTg The NTP-RCC includes: Identify the extent of climate change in Vietnam due to global climate change and assess climate change impacts on every sector, area and locality Identify measures to respond to climate change Promote scientific and technological activities to establish the scientific and practical basis for climate change response measures Consolidate and enhance the organizational structure, institutional capacity and the development and implementation of policies to respond to climate change Enhance public awareness, responsibility and participation; and develop human resources to respond to climate change Promote international cooperation to obtain external support in response to climate change Mainstream climate change issues into socio-economic, sectoral and local development strategies, plans and planning Develop and implement action plans of all ministries, sectors and localities to respond to climate change; to implement projects, and first of all pilot projects The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) has developed and published Vietnam’s climate change projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios of low emissions (B1), of medium emissions (B2) and of high emissions (A2, A1FI) applied for seven climate zones using monitoring data collected during the baseline period of 1980-2008 The sea level rise scenarios were also modelled and projected In Quang Binh, there are three meteorological stations, six hydrological stations, and five rainfall recording points Additionally there are some automatic weather monitoring stations under construction by the Official Development Assistance (ODA) fund of the Italian Government Concerning the meteorological characteristics, Quang Binh, has a complex and fluctuation weather system There are only two distinct seasons in Quang Binh: the rainy season and the dry season The rainy season starts on September and ends on March The dry season covers the period from April to August Average annual temperature is in the ranks of 24 - 25 °C; the highest temperatures are in June, July and August and the lowest in December, January and February Each year, Quang Binh receives a high amount of rainfall, about 1,600 – 2,700 mm The total number of rainy days is 152 days/year in average, concentrated mainly in September, October and November The rainfall distribution in the province is rather unbalanced About 80 – 93 percent amount of annual rainfall is concentrated in the rainy season September and October are peak months of rainfall and flood The highest rainfall concentrates in Huong Hoa (2,715 mm), the lowest rainfall are in the South West mountainous and valley areas as recorded in Quang Phu (1683 mm), Quang Luu (1,892 mm), Ron (1,898 mm) and Troc (< 2,000 mm) Drought is considered as a kind of natural disaster to the local people In the North, West and South-West sides of the Quang Binh, the lacking of water situation is in the periods of January to April or May (2-5 months) In the coastal areas, the drought may prolong six until seven months, even eight months, from January to July Although the rainfall amount in the early rainy season may be more or less 100 mm, the strong hot and dry western wind (Lao wind) leads to a high evapotranspiration situation in the coastal areas The number of dry-hot days needs to be considered for climate analysis Dry-hot days are days when the maximum temperature in the day is higher or equal to 35qC and the minimum relative huminty lower or equal to 65 percent It is found that in Quang Binh, a year has 40 - 48 dry-hot days in a coast area, however when rising up higher elevation areas (to the west side) the number of dry-hot days are reduced (about ten days in average in PNKB region) North wind blows to the province with cold and dry air masses mainly In the dry season (from May to October) the hot and wet air masses move to the region following the South - West wind direction Wind speeds in the rainy season are normally higher than in the dry season Average wind speed in the low coastal land varies among 2.5 - 3.0 m/s while in the mountain areas the average wind speed is lower than 2,5 m/s The wind speed reduces from the east to the west sides In average, each year Quang Binh faces five or six storms and/or tropical low pressures Since 1955 -– 1985, there were 43 storms which hit the province directly August, September and October are the storm-concentrated months The high floods happen to the lower lands and valleys of the province when three factors come in the same time: heavy rainfall, upstream high flow and the high tide from the sea The big floods caused many losses and damages to the communities In general, the weather characteristics of Tuyen Hoa, Ba Don and Dong Hoi can be summarised as in Table The typical trends of monthly average temperature can be presented as in Figure 4, it is found that the monthly temperature, i.e in June (hottest month) and in January (lowest month) were in increasing trends in general The damaged natural disasters of the province are listed as in Table The common weather phenomenons in the local area include floods due to abnormal rainfall and strong storm and high tide, erosion and landslide due to high floods, forest fire and drought due to higher temperature and change of agriculture/land use patterns These weather factors have a direct or indirect impact on the agricultural farming system Others are bank erosion and reducing sedimentation Which climate trends are projected in the future for the Quan Binh province and thereby for the PNKB National Park presents Table Climatic Items Tuyen Hoa Station Average Annual Temperature 23.8 C Lowest Temperature 05.9 C (January) Highest Temperature o Ba Don Station Dong Hoi Station o 24.6 C o 07.7 C (January) o 24.3 C o o 07.6 C (December) o 40.1 C o 40.1 C 42.2 C Average Rainfall per Year 2266.5mm 1932.4mm 2159.4mm Rainy Days per Year 159 days 130 days 135 days ighest Rainfall per Day 403mm 414mm 415mm Slight Rainy Days per Year 18 (months of 1,2,3) 09.3 (month of 11) 17 (month of 12) o Average Air Humidity 84% 84% 83% Average Minimum Humidity 66% 67% 68% Foggy Days 47 (month of 7,8,9) 20 (month of 9,10) 13.8 (month of 9,10) Air Evaporation 1031mm 1035mm 1222mm Coordinates o o o Northern Latitudes 17 50' Eastern Longitudes 106 08' 106 25' 106 37' Altitude 25m 8m 7m Years of Observation 1961-2000 1960-1999 1900-2000 o 17 45' 17 -29’ o o Table Major Climatic Observation in Meteorological Stations Surrounding the PNKB National Park (Source: GFA Consulting Group, 2006) Figure Trend lines of Average Temperature in June and January in Dong Hoi Very High Damage High Damage Fair Damage Low Damage flood and nudation forest fire sea level rise land sunk, land crash storm, tropical low pressure cold strong spell, damaged cold whirlwind salinity intrusion and inudation erosion in river bank and coastal lines flying sand, filled sand thumder and lightning hail flash flood seasonal wind thunder and lightning hail rock and earth erosion Table List of Natural Disasters to Quang Binh and Noticed Priority Orders (Source: Quang Binh Project for Natural Disaster Management, 2010) MONRE (2003) National Report 2005: National Report on Disaster Reduction in Vietnam Prepared for the World Conference on Disaster Reduction, Kobe-Hyogo, 18-22 January 2005 31 pp MONRE (2009) Climate change, Sea level rise Scenarios for Vietnam Hanoi, 2009 MONRE (2010) Viet Nam’s Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Nguyen Dai (2008) Collection and Revision the Hydro-Meteorological data of Quang Binh in 1956-2005, (in Vietnamese) Peter Chaudhry and Greet Ruysschaert (2008) Climate Change & Human Development in Vietnam: A case study for the Human Development, Report 2007/2008 Oxfam and UNDP Prime Ministry of Vietnam Gernment (2008) Decision No 158/2008/QD-TTg on approval the National Target Programme to Respond to Climate change Somrudee Jitpraphai, Suppakorn Chinvanno, Le Anh Tuan and Nguyen Kim Loi (2010) Developing Research Capacity on Assessing Community Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts in Central of Vietnam and Mekong River Delta (CIA2009-P05-Jitpraphai Project), Final Report submitted to APN Sven Harmeling (2011) Global Climate Risk Index 2011: Who suffers most from extreme weather events? Weather-related loss events in 2009 and 1990 to 2009 Germanwatch‘s publication This publication can be downloaded at: www.germanwatch.org/cri Le Anh Tuan, Chu Thai Hoanh, Fiona Miller, and Bach Tan Sinh, 2008 Floods and Salinity Management in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam In: Challenges to sustainable Development in the Mekong Delta: Regional and National Policy Issues and Research Needs, T.T Be, B.T Sinh and Fiona M (Eds) The Sustainable Mekong Research Network (Sumernet)'s publication, Stockholm, Sweden Tuong, Nguyen Le (2006) Climate Change and Activities in Viet Nam UNDP (2007) Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World Human Development Report 2007/8, Palgrave MacMillan, New York WB (2007) Vietnam: Climate Risk and Adaptation Country Profile 29 Annex 1: Suggestions for amending the text of the BZDP Chapter Sub-Chapter Content regarding CC (Numbers of Chapters referring to Climate Proofing report) Executive Summary Reference to Climate Proofing for Development has been deployed in the process of developing the BZDP, main climate trends and threats in the PNKB Buffer Zone and priority interventions for adaptation to climate change into the BZDP CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Rationale Short mentioning of CC relevance 1.5 Structure of the BZDP Insert: “Climate change aspects were integrated into the specific chapters where appropriate” CHAPTER 2: BACKGROUND AND CURRENT SITUATION OF THE BUFFER ZONE 2.2 National Context: Experience around other protected Areas Insert: “Climate change is a factor which clearly impacts on Protected Areas and their Buffer Zones in Vietnam It will have severe impacts on Vietnams Protected Areas in the future However, until now there has not been any experience of addressing these trends and impacts thoroughly in management or buffer zone development plans The Him Na No National Biodiversity area in Lao PDR bordering PNKB has also started incorporating climate aspects and is supported by GIZ in this respect ” 2.3 Assessment of the Socio-economic Situation in the BZ of PNKB 2.3.1 Geography, Access to and Use of Natural Resources, Climate Change and Natural Disasters, Biodiversity and Nature Conservation, Human Resources, People and Cultural Values, Demography and Labour Force, temporary and permanent OutMigration Description of historic changes regarding floods, development in agricultural production and fire mentioning of fire and storm at risk (see chapter 6) 2.3.2 Productive Sectors: Agriculture, Forestry, Aquaculture, Handicraft and Small-scale Industries Mentioning of increasingly insecure harvests in agriculture due to climate change and other relevant information mentioned in chapter 2.3.3 Service Sectors: Trade and Tourism, Transport, Micro-Finance Mentioning of in-accessibility of the regions at times of flooding and damage to tourism infrastructure which might increase in the future with stronger climate change 2.3.4 Socio-economic Situation, Poverty and Income Opportunities Need to conserve corridors in order to allow for species migration forced by climate change Mention impact of CC on poverty situation (see chapter 6) 2.4 Assessments of Threats to the PNKB National Park 30 2.4.1 Critical Issues Include chapter from this report as overview on CC in the area (alternatively in chapter 2.3) 2.4.4 Zoning of Threats by Communes and Villages Possibly include CC threats (dangers on specific villages, see chapter 6) CHAPTER 3: LONG-TERM VISION AND STRATEGIC ORIENTATION 3.1 Vision until 2030 for the Development of the PNKB Buffer Zone From a climate change perspectives, it would be reasonable to include “on a long-term perspective” in the mission 3.2 Strategic Orientation and Guiding Principles for conservation-oriented Development Add to the list: “Systematic consideration of effects of climate change on conservation and development in the buffer zone and integration of actions to mitigate current and future effects of climate change” CHAPTER 4: SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MASTER PLAN FOR THE BZ UNTIL 2020 4.1 Major Forecasts for the BZ Region until 2020 (Demographic, Parameters) economic, social and Include information from chapter ecological 4.2 Conservation-oriented Development Concept and Goal until 2020 From a climate change perspectives, it would be reasonable to include “on a long-term perspective” in the goal 4.3 Catalogue of verifiable Conservation Criteria for Investments and Interventions: What is permissible in the BZ and what is not? Include “Any investment in the area should be in the long-term perspective sustainable and should also be able to achieve the desired impacts under conditions of future climate change” 4.4 Identification of “Prioritized Areas” and “Nonprioritized Areas” The degree to which communes are affected by Climate Change (see chapter 6) could serve as one criterion for the identification 4.5 Priority Sectors and Interventions to mitigate Threats to the NP and improve Livelihoods in the BZ 4.5.1 Agriculture and Community Forestry Add: “The agricultural techniques used and promoted should be adapted to climate change” 4.5.2 Fisheries and Aquaculture In this context priority interventions include: “Supporting the use of aquaculture hardware which is resilient to CC / flooding” 4.5.3 Handicraft and Small-scale Industries Add: The promotion of income-generating activities also decreases the vulnerability of the population to climate change as it diversifies income away from agriculture 4.5.4 Sustainable Tourism Development Add: The promotion of community-based tourism activities also decreases the vulnerability of the population to climate change as it diversifies income away from agriculture 4.5.5 Social and Communication Infrastructure, Irrigation In this context priority interventions include: “Supporting the use of irrigation hardware which is resilient to CC” 4.5.6 Trade and Transport, Market Access Add: It is of special importance that roads are constructed in a way robust enough not to be destroyed by floods and if possible also usable in times of floods (on dykes) In the building process, 31 erosion preventions measure should be applied where necessary CHAPTER 5: IMPLEMENTATIONS MEASURES UNTIL 2015 5.1 Specific Objectives until 2015 Suggestion for one objective: Measures to minimize the negative impacts of floods and changes in agricultural production are adopted (x) Corridors allowing the migration of species and enhancing the National Parks resilience to Climate change are established 5.2 Measures for the “Prioritized Areas” 5.2.1 Five-year Plan: Aggregated Overview of Priority Interventions See Priority interventions above 5.2.2 Beak-downs of 5-y Plan by Sectors of Intervention, major Activities, Districts and Communes See Priority interventions above 5.3 Measures for the “Non-prioritized Areas” 5.3.1 Five-year Plan: Aggregated Overview of Priority Interventions See Priority interventions above 5.3.2 Beak-downs of five-year Plan by Sectors of Intervention, major Activities, Districts and Communes See Priority interventions above CHAPTER 6: FINANCE AND INVESTMENT PLAN 6.2 Additional financial Needs and potential Sources of Finance 6.2.1 Potential additional Public Sources Include CC Support available from Vietnamese government 6.2.2 Innovative International Sources See Chapter on possible activities to secure funding 6.2.4 Draft Project Briefs for the Acquisition of new Investment Projects Could include proposals for donor financing for climate-related activities CHAPTER 7: IMPLEMENTATION ORGANIZATION 7.2 Monitoring of Implementation and Impacts 7.2.1 Indicators for Follow-up of Implementation Progress Suggestion for indicator “Every commune has taken at least one new action to respond to threats resulting from CC” or “x members of the commune have made adaptations in their buildings or field to enhance robustness to flooding” 7.2.2 Milestones for Follow-up of Impacts Add: Review of progress in adaptation to climate change after three year implementation 32 Annex 2: Steps for CP4Dev in the Buffer Zone Dev Planning x Climate change in PN-QB region, combined with the natural disasters as tropical storms and abnormal weather phenomena, will impact to agriculture and forestry that leading the threats to biodiversity and natural conservation The impacts will resulting in as well as local human health, livelihoods and other socio-economical sectors x For making a Climate Proofing for Development proposal, three steps for action planning are suggested: (1) Preparation Step; (2) Planning Step and (3) Approval Step In each step, there are some Tasks for implementation as schemed in Figure 10 and Figure 11 Step Preparation Step Planning Step Approval (3 Tasks) (9 Tasks) (3 Tasks) Fig 10: Overview CP4Dev in PN-QB Buffer Zone x Preparation Step 1: For preparing an integrated climate change adaptation to the local socialeconomical development plans, it is needed as the first step to push the leading roles of both communities and provincial levels by conducting them in particular capacity building and institutional strengthening in making their own action plans In these steps, tasks are proposed including (i) formulating a Technical Planning Team, (ii) Training the CP Methodology and (iii) Organizing the workshop for considering the CP4Dev activities The Technical Planning Team are formed by collecting staff from PN-KB Management Project, DPI, DARD, DoNRE and some invited specialists from Research Institutes They are initially being trained in CP4Dev and other skills on data collection and analysis Then, a workshop will be conducted for overview the methods and activity implementation x Planning Step 2: This is the most important stage for development a CP4Dev, there are tasks should be done The main objectives are to analyse whether a specific activity needs to be considered at the possible climate change adaptation various options based on the natural disaster checklist in the past and climate change projection to the future In this step, a list of possible adaptation options will be proposed for helping the local government and PN-KB project decide which of the possible adaptation options would be best on the local criteria such as cost effectiveness will be considered The output of step is a prioritised list of feasible adaptation options integrated into the PN-KB Master Plan x Approval Step 3: Technical Planning Team has to write a Draft CP integration action plan for development project In the draft, the precise stages of implementation measures will be presented Once this has been done, an open workshop will be organized for presentation the output and receiving the mass comments and revision Then, the Team may back to step for modifying and completing their draft report A final approval for the CP4Dev will be an end task for the Team 33 Climate Proofing for Development in the PNKB Buffer Zone Development Planning 1.1 Formulating a Technical Planning Team Preparation Step 1.2 Training Planning Team on Climate Proofing Methodology 1.3 Organizing workshop on Climate Proofing for Development 2.1 Define the main goal and objectives for development planning 2.2 Collecting data and disaster/abnormal weather events reports: x Temperature change (Max, Min, Average in months) x Rainfall (Max, Min, Average in months) x Stream flow hydrological regimes (floods) x Yearly abnormal weather reports x Tropical storms and Low pressures x Other natural disasters, … 2.3 Projecting climate change in the future Planning Step 2.4 Analyzing the impacts of climate change in: x Agricultural production x Aquaculture and animal husbandry x Forestry and biodiversity x Infrastructure x Tourist x Human health, likelihoods and other social sectors x Other economical sectors, … 2.5 Finding the local adaptation in the past and the present in different sectors: x From the people/ communities x From the local governments (policies, action plans) x From the central government (policies, action plans) 2.6 Finding the gaps in currently adaptation and future 2.7 Suggesting a new adaptation planning for the future 2.8 Drawing the plans into projects and subprojects 2.9 Analyzing available projects combined or trade-off 3.1 Drafting the development planning in details Approval Step 3.2 Workshop for Comments and Revision the Planning 3.3 Planning Revision and Final Approvals 34 Annex 3: Timetable Date 23/4, Mon 24/4, Tue 25/4, Wed Time Activity Team Preparatory meetings Eschborn AF 06:30 Arrival to Hanoi AF 08.30-9.30 Briefing Meeting J Kallabinski, Evelyn Ebert AF 10.00-12.00 Meeting MART xxx AF 12.00-13.00 Lunch together with MART AF 13.00-15.00 Discussion J Kallabinski, E Ebert, Department for Nature Conservation, Diroectors of Pu Hu, Pu Luong Nature Reserve, Representatives from Ba Be National Park and Na Hang Nature reserve AF 15.00-15.30 Briefing J.Hess AF 15.30-17.00 Meeting Jens Kallabinski AF 06:00 Departure for Dong Hoi AF 08.30-10.30 Briefings and planning meeting with project staff and other consultants AF 11.30-13:00 Meeting KfW AF 13.00-14:30 Meeting Fernando AF 14.30-15.30 Meeting colleague Jens AF 15.30-16.30 Meeting DPI / Head of Buffer Zone Planning AF 16.30-17.00 Meeting Nguyen Trung Thuc Director PPMU Nature Conservation & Sustainable Management of natural resources in the PNKB National Park Region AF 17.30-18.00 Internal Consultations AF 08.30-09.30 Internal Meeting AF, Tuan 09.30-10.15 Telephone Discussion Jeremy Carew-Reed AF 10.15-11.00 Telephone Discussion Georg Buchholz AF 11.00-12.00 Preparation Workshop AF, Tuan 12.00-13.00 Lunch Buffer Zone Development Group AF, Tuan 13.00-14.00 Workshop AF, Tuan 14.00-16.45 Workshop with Buffer Zone Development Group on Climate AF Tuan 35 Change (Participants: PPMU (Mr Anh), GIZ (Mr Jens, Mr Hop, Mr Chau, Mrs NgocAnh), DPI (Mr Dinh, Mr Duc), DONRE (Mr Viet), Department of Forest (Mr Trung), Department of Forest Protection (Mr But), Agriculture Extension (Mr Trung ) 26/5, Thu 16.45-17.30 Wrap up of the day and discussion on way forward AF, Tuan 08.00-09.00 Meeting Mr Duong, Director of Meteorological service AF, Tuan 09.30-10.30 Meeting Mr Son and Mr Phong, Department of Water Management and Flood-Storm Preparedness Authority AF, Tuan 10.30-13.00 Internal consultation AF, Tuan 13.00-18.00 Field trip to Hung Trach and Son Trach communes AF Tuan - 27/5, Fri Hung Trach (Mr Thai - chairman)Son Trach (Mr Tru – Chairman) 08.00-14.00 Internal discussion, evaluation of field trip, development of recommendations AF, Tuan 14.00-18.00 Participation (including presentation) at meeting with German Embassy Cooperation responsible AF,Tuan 18.00-23.00 Report writing 08.00-11.00 Meeting Buffer Zone Development Group 12.00-18.00 Document and data evaluation and internal consultations 29/5, Sun 10.00-18.00 Document and data evaluation 30/5, Mon 08.00-12.00 Internal consultations and debriefing with project staff AF, Tuan 12.00-20.00 Trip to Hanoi AF 14:00 – 15.30 Meeting with Agriculture Extension (Mr Vien, Mr Trung) Tuan 11.00-12,00 Meeting SPK AF 12.00-13.30 Meeting Project “Forest and Biodiversity” AF 15.00-16.00 Meeting Georg Deichert, Project Leader, GIZ Tra Vinh Project AF 21.00 Departure for Frankfurt AF (no) Meeting DONRE Tuan (no) Meeting National Park Tuan Meeting Rosemarie Metz AF 28/5, Sat 31/5, Tue 6/6 AF,Tuan AF,Tuan AF,Tuan AF,Tuan 36 Annex 4: Climate Proofing Table Climate Proofing Table – Buffer Zone Development in the Phong Nha-Ke Bang National Park Region Climate Stimuli x x Increase of annual mean temperature by 1.1-1.90°C up to 2.1-3.60°C until 2100 (national data, ISPONRE 2009), Temperature increase in North Central Vietnam (including Quang Binh) projected at 1.1/1.2 degrees by 2040 and 1.5 degrees by 2050 (national data, MONRE 2009) Increase of annual mean rainfall by 1.0-5.2% up to 1.8-10.1%, (national data, ISPONRE 20009), Percentage change of annual mean precipitation for North Central Vietnam (including Quang Binh) by 3.0/3.1 percent in 2040 and 4.0/3.7 degrees in 2050 (national data, MONRE 2009) Sea Level Rise in the range of 65 - 100cm (national data, ISPONRE 2009), in 2040: 23-24 cm and in 2050 28-33 cm (national data, MONRE 2009) Increase in variability of precipitation (droughts and floods) x Increase in storm and cyclones frequency and intensity x x Impact of planning objectives: *: low, **: medium, ***: high Adaptive capacity: *: low, **: medium, ***: high Probability of impacts: *: low, **: medium, ***: high Relevance CC Effect Higher frequency of forest fires due to more frequent drier conditions Conservation Impact Development Impact Destruction of forest and Biodiversity (birds, wild flowers, …) Loss of economic values in the PA – NTFP (Non Timber Forest Products) use options affected: loss of income Increasing the damages of flood and land erosion Land erosion leading to loss in agricultural potential and danger for Impact on planning objectives Options for Action Adaptive capacity Probability of impacts x * *** ** 37 Fire management measures: Inspection and fire prevention need to be strengthen; increase sensitization measures related to forest fires and their adverse impacts Relevance CC Effect Conservation Impact Development Impact Impact on planning objectives Options for Action Adaptive capacity Probability of impacts residents, … x Establishment of effective fire corridors x Establish corridors for species migration and support positive species migration; x strengthen existing corridor systems, x prevent further fragmentation of the area (Also cross-border corridors with Him-Nam No NP in Lao PDR) x Support analysis of impacts of climate change on the Protected Area for specific endangered species; x develop migration scenarios for animals and plants due to climate change (possibly support by research institutions) x Promote special protection measures for selected key habitats (strict control of access, ecosystem restoration) x Integrate CC effects in the management plan of PNKB NP, (zones, anticipation of impacts on conservation objects, adaptive management) x Include climate change considerations in the planning of tourism projects and national park infrastructure x Intensify bio monitoring (surveillance of climate-sensitive species, habitats and processes), close monitoring of high risk species , establish an efficient monitoring Effects to tourism activities Key flora and fauna species at pressure due to ecological stress and trespassing of optimal environment, danger for endemic/threatened species, loss of wildlife Change in ecological conditions due to climatic changes (such as increase in mean temperature, heavy rains, flooding) unpredicted floods) Changes in regeneration, fruiting and growing patterns and timing of plants also affects animals Changes in ecosystem and vegetation type, forest structures and dynamics, especially at the borders of specific habitats Increase of invasive species/risk of parasitic infestation Changes in forest diversity and productivity, possibly forest degradation Loss of attractiveness of park for tourists > Possibly tourism affected NTFP use options affected Loss of socio-economic role for people’s livelihoods and ecological role for nature conservation Increase of wildlife conflicts as wildlife comes out of forests Loss of forests leads to higher Surface runoff / erosion and loss of arable land * Rather relevant for the NP * ** Loss of tourism value and revenues for local communities / income generation Puts development and conservation achievements at risk Loss of agrobiodiversity leads to loss in agricultural production Forest may serve less as carbon sink Existing corridors don’t work anymore 38 Relevance CC Effect Conservation Impact Development Impact Impact on planning objectives Options for Action Adaptive capacity Probability of impacts Loss of endemic biodiversity system with indicators for key species and ecological processes; consider and integrate CC concerns from the start x Determine risk of spread of invasive, rapidly increasing species, if necessary: control of invasive species; support integrated pest management and preventive measures Any action aiming at increasing the resilience of ecosystems and reducing external pressure on PA and ensuring efficient management of PA will support also the robustness of the area against CC x Destruction of harvests > decrease in agricultural production Support enforcement of existing infrastructure; build climate robust new infrastructure (e.g houses robust against heavy rains); x diversify transport routes; Danger to human health x Decentralise storage of products; Further collection of raw material for building in the national park Costs for reconstruction => increase of poverty x support integration of CC aspects into urban, regional and land use planning (e.g concerning settlements in flood-prone areas), Destruction of forest and biodiversity Destruction of roads makes market access and provision of services (e.g health) more difficult x promote weather-insurance schemes x Support highly vulnerable communities with particular assistance measures x Build stations for hydrological measurement and install basic early warning systems at community level Destruction of infrastructure (Houses, bridges, roads) Destruction of conservation infrastructure (Visitors Centre, eco-trail etc.), additional costs Increase in the frequency and intensity of floods *** * *** Loss of revenue from ecotourism Interruption of socio-economical activities during the floods (business, administration, health care, education, 39 Relevance CC Effect Conservation Impact Development Impact Impact on planning objectives Options for Action Adaptive capacity Probability of impacts …) x Establish and train community rescue teams x See above, x Increase and improve overall access to weather forecasts and climate information, x work with agricultural extension services, capacitate them to provide well-targeted messages to farmers x Diversify income; support other forms of income generation x Support highly vulnerable communities with particular assistance measures x protect local agricultural cultivars x Possibly support measures to: diversify agricultural production; adapt irrigation systems and improve access to water ponds; adapt agricultural practices to CC (species, See above, additionally: Increase of frequency and intensity of storms and cyclones See above Loss of value of attractiveness of park for tourists an destruction of tourism infrastructure *** * * Tourism period shorter > loss of income Seasonal water shortage for cultivation Destruction of fields by storms, floods and droughts Increasing variability of agricultural productivity (due to rainfall variability, including drought phases and extreme events ) Increase in risks of infestations and pests Increased pressure on the national park, biodiversity and natural resources Long-term and in some years: decrease in harvests, reduction of yields, reduced productivity and quality of some major crops *** ** ** But also: positive effects in some years with abundant precipitation Increase in rural poverty, migration, food insecurity Deteriorating health situation 40 Relevance CC Effect Conservation Impact Development Impact Impact on planning objectives Options for Action Adaptive capacity Probability of impacts methods, storage systems); reduce stress for agricultural systems (e g pests); introduce robust, adapted species; Partner with other organisations active in the area Increasing risk of water shortages; access to clean water affected, Contamination of drinking water Increasing production cost, possibly reduced productivity and quality of some major crops Low groundwater level in some times of the year due to drought ** * Protect NTFP Species in the protected areas from overuse by regulation and enforcement x Support measures to: x Improve efficient rainwater harvesting, irrigation and water efficiency x Ensure water availability for the population (deeper wells or transport of water) x Sensitize people on efficient water use; develop emergency plans to secure drinking water supply x Establish water storage reservoirs and adapt water infrastructure, e.g wells x Support reforestation along rivers, and leave vegetative areas near river, establish smallscale nurseries x Promote measures on erosion control (gully reclamation, afforestation, establishment of vegetation cover, assisted natural regeneration etc) * Increase in rural poverty, migration and food insecurity Health situation of the population aggravated; Livestock health affected Loss of land in the protected area Erosion x Limestone areas difficult to be resettled by plants Soil degradation Increasing suspended solid in river water and sedimentation in reservoirs Degradation of the quality of soils for drop production , loss of arable land Increase of the costs for drinking water treatment ** * ** Sedimentation, loss of water reservoirs 41 Relevance CC Effect Conservation Impact Development Impact Impact on planning objectives Options for Action Adaptive capacity General 42 Probability of impacts x support supply of decision-relevant information on CC trends to park management, x support demonstration activities to adapt to specific climate changes (e.g fire), x support the a process-orientated conservation perpective rather than a static x Support in-depth analysis of mid- to long-term impacts of CC on protected areas network of Vietnam => integration of CC aspects in relevant policy papers on biodiversity and PA management which are under development or revision in order to maintain a comprehensive and representative reserve system x Raise awareness on natural disasters and climate change impacts in community level ... extent of climate change in Vietnam due to global climate change and assess climate change impacts on every sector, area and locality Identify measures to respond to climate change Promote scientific... by climate change However main impacts of climate change in the park will most likely include destruction of forests due to fires and storms, changes in species composition because of changes in... human resources to respond to climate change Promote international cooperation to obtain external support in response to climate change Mainstream climate change issues into socio-economic, sectoral