International Specialization Dynamics Smart Innovation Set coordinated by Dimitri Uzunidis Volume International Specialization Dynamics Didier Lebert Hafida El Younsi First published 2017 in Great Britain and the United States by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms and licenses issued by the CLA Enquiries concerning reproduction outside these terms should be sent to the publishers at the undermentioned address: ISTE Ltd 27-37 St George’s Road London SW19 4EU UK John Wiley & Sons, Inc 111 River Street Hoboken, NJ 07030 USA www.iste.co.uk www.wiley.com © ISTE Ltd 2017 The rights of Didier Lebert and Hafida El Younsi to be identified as the authors of this work have been asserted by them in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 Library of Congress Control Number: 2016959658 British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A CIP record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 978-1-84821-987-8 Contents Introduction ix Chapter Overview of the Globalization of Trade in Industrial Goods: 1980–2004 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Data 1.3 Structural indicators resulting from social networks analysis 1.4 Main results 1.4.1 Density of graphs 1.4.2 Node degrees 1.4.3 Node strengths 1.4.4 Node centralities 1.4.5 Assortments 1.4.6 Clustering 1.5 Conclusion 9 10 12 18 22 24 30 Chapter The Dynamics of International Industrial Specializations 33 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Influence matrix and country centrality indicators 2.3 The dynamics of revealed comparative advantages 2.4 Conclusion 1 33 34 45 53 vi International Specialization Dynamics Chapter Dominance Relationships in an Influence Graph 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Spanning trees with a single impulse node (STSIN) 3.3 Arc-impelled dominances 3.4 The value of a dominance impelled by an arc between nodes that belong to two different substructures 3.5 Conclusion 55 55 61 68 76 83 Chapter Economic Dominance Theory and Structural Indicators on Egocentric Networks 85 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Egocentric networks: sectorization, inclusion, insertion and integration 4.3 Application to African countries’ international trade 4.4 Conclusion 85 86 94 101 Chapter Economic Dominance Theory and Intra- and Inter-Regional Flow of Technological Knowledge 103 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Measuring the dynamic resilience of regions 5.3 Measuring the significance and forms of the technological autonomy of regions 5.4 Conclusion 103 107 113 119 Chapter Technological Landscapes Analysis: Europe, 2010–2012 121 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Four technological landscapes 6.3 Some findings 6.3.1 The betweenness centrality of regions and technologies 6.3.2 The betweenness centrality of companies in regional and technology landscapes 121 123 134 134 138 Contents vii 6.3.3 The contribution of companies to the centrality of regions and technologies 6.3.4 A brief view of the Ỵle-de-France region 6.4 Conclusion 143 146 148 Conclusion 151 Appendix 155 Bibliography 163 Index 171 Introduction This book is an overview of six years of joint research conducted within the Department of Applied Economics of ENSTA ParisTech It introduces new tools for the analysis of economic exchange structures The first theme covered is that of the globalization of trade in industrial goods In 2010, we published an article in the European Journal of Economic and Social Systems which introduced an original method to historically identify this phenomenon from international trade data for the period 1980–2004 [LEB 10] These same tools were also used to quantify the scale of the phenomenon, identify contributing countries, in terms of industrial goods, whose exchange structure changed with time In this method, trade in goods is represented in the form of graphs in which the nodes / poles correspond to countries and the links between these nodes to (physical or financial) flows that interconnect these countries These flows can be divided according to the goods that are traded Information on the direction of flow (who exports and who imports) and on their intensity (what amounts) is integrated in the graph In the end, the structure of international trade, on a given date, looks like the graph in Figure I.1 x International Specialization Dynamics Figure I.1 Structure of international trade in industrial goods in 1980 (CEPII data, TradeProd database) The graph is drawn such that the most “important” economies of the structure are positioned in its center The term centrality here refers to a measure of the relative significance of a node This significance is understood as a sum of influences that it exerts on the overall structure: capacity of transmitting to its partners the disruptions / economic shocks affecting it, or ability to control flows transiting through the structure In this book, we will present toolkits to interpret these graphs, both generally and also in a more restricted manner: – by “subgraphs”, that is focusing the analysis on a restricted sample of countries (European or African for example); – by “partial graphs”, that is for a particular product group (for example, low-medium- or high tech products) These two “restrictions” can be combined, and we may occasionally analyze “partial subgraphs” Introduction xi The book’s added value is above all methodological We present tools that help to navigate between the different scales of analysis while maintaining a solid basis for comparison When we move from a complete graph to a subgraph, the links within the subgraph are relativized by inner and outer links In other words, when studying trade relations between France and Germany in a “Europe” subgraph, the relationships that these countries have with their other economic partners play a role even if these partners are outside the European continent The same applies for the partial graphs: relationships between these same two countries in high-tech products take into account those they develop for products with fewer new technologies These tools are essentially derived from the economic dominance theory (EDT) According to Lanther [LAN 74], economic dominance theory [LAN 74] initially applies to inter-industry trade flows as reported within the framework of the National Accounts The indicators of centrality of nodes in exchange structures that Lantner presents, production multipliers and elasticities, reflect those traditionally handled within the framework of input–output analysis (which studies the interdependencies between productive sectors of an economy) The originality of the tool that the author develops in this context, the “influence graphs theory”, is to articulate the mathematical graphs theory on the one hand and the fundamental elements of the inputoutput analysis on the other Indeed, “the analysis of the effects of dominance in an exchange structure has been up to now subject to detrimental fragmentation”, between matrix calculation, allowing for the understanding of global influences but not the process of disruptions, and the qualitative approach from unweighted graphs neglecting “unbalanced intensities of connections” The objective of the influence graphs theory is to “bridge the gap” between these two approaches “by revealing the conditions of general dependence and interdependence, related to the process of quantitative distribution of the influence” of poles in a given exchange structure [LAN 74] This objective led the author to provide entirely new topological interpretations to inter-industry exchange structures Roland Lantner showed that structural analysis is an intuitive way of calculating the xii International Specialization Dynamics determinant of matrices representative of directed and weighted exchange structures This determinant will be subsequently considered as an indicator of the hierarchical distribution of influence through this structure This led Lantner to formulate the following three theorems, which are informally1 presented here before attempting a synthetic interpretation: – Loops and circuits theorem: [LAN 74] shows that the value of the determinant associated with an exchange structure is a function of the value of “Hamiltonian partial graphs” (HPG) of the graph representing this structure A Hamiltonian partial graph is a partial graph (i.e initial graph without arcs interconnecting the poles) with the nodes having in and out “degrees” (number of connections) strictly equal to The value of an HPG is in absolute value, the product of intensity coefficients that comprise it (see Chapter 3) – Amortization theorem: The value of the determinant is an increasing function of the general distribution of influence within an exchange structure The looping effect generated by a nonHamiltonian circuit (a “partial circularity”), disrupts the distribution of influence and reduces this value The value of the determinant is therefore a decreasing function of partial circularities – Partition theorem: This theorem defines the relationships between different sub-structures (“parts”) of a given structure [LAN 00] The determinant of the exchange structure is less than or equal to the product of the determinants of the parts The difference measures “interdependence” between the parts The general idea is to know the part of the general circulation of influence inside the structure (synthesized by the determinant) that is to be used in the circulation between the parts (which is, in our own word “external” to the parts) and that which is “internalized” in the parts The aim is to try to determine if there exists a circulation base within the structure to, where appropriate, identify a hierarchy between the parts In an extreme case where each pole constitutes a part, the difference between the product of the determinants of these parts (the product of the diagonal terms of the For a formal presentation, see [LAN 13] Appendix 164 'VNM' Viet Nam 165 'WSM' Samoa 166 'YEM' Yemen 167 'YUG' Yugoslavia 168 'ZAF' South Africa 169 'ZAR' Democratic Republic of the Congo 170 'ZMB' Zambia 171 'ZWE' Zimbabwe 161 Bibliography [ALB 02] ALBERT R., BARABASI A.L., “Statistical mechanics of complex networks”, Reviews of Modern Physics, vol 74, pp 47–97, 2002 [ALM 97] ALMEIDA P., KOGUT B., “The exploration of technological diversity and the geographic localization of innovation”, Small Business Economics, vol 9, pp 21–31, 1997 [AUT 14] AUTANT-BERNARD C., COWAN R., MASSARD N., “Editors’ introduction to spatial knowledge networks: structure, driving forces and innovative performances”, Annals of Regional Science, vol 53, pp 315– 323, 2014 [BAR 09] BARIGOZZI M., FAGIOLO G., GARLASCHELLI D., The 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spatial dimension of knowledge spillovers in Europe: evidence from firm patenting data”, Maastricht University, MERIT Research Memorandum, no 16, 2000 [WAS 94] WASSERMAN S., FAUST K., Social Network Analysis: Methods and Applications, Cambridge University Press, 1994 [ZUI 13] ZUINDEAU B et al., “Review of HAMDOUCH A., DEPRET M.-H., TANGUY C (eds) ‘La Mondialisation et résilience des territoires – Trajectoires, dynamiques d’acteurs et expériences’ Presses de l’Université du Québec, 2012”, Durable et Territoires, vol 4, no 1, pp 2–5, 2013 Index A, B, C African trade, 70, 71, 94 arcs, 39, 42, 57, 60–62, 69–71, 78, 80, 83, 89, 109, 129, 152 assortment, 1, 4, 8, 22–24 autarky, 40, 42, 113, 114–116, 132, 148, 152 between centrality cohesion centrality, 109, 110, contribution of companies to the centrality of regions and technologies, 143–145 contributions to centrality, 144 of regions/technologies, 134– 138 global centrality, 6, 7, 41 immediate centrality, California, 110, 112, 113, 116– 118 central and Eastern Europe countries (CEE), 44 centrality, 34, 134–143 circularities, 58 clustering, 1, 4, 7, 8, 25, 27, 152 comparative advantages/revealed comparative advantages, 33, 45–52 connectedness degree in-degree, 8, 16, 58 out-degree, 6, 8, 16 force in-force, 16 out-force, 17, 17 COR&DIP, 121–123 D, E density, 1, 4, 6, 9, 10, 12, 25, 27, 34, 117, 132, 134 dependence, 40, 78, 113, 115, 116, 118 determinant/matrix determinant, 79, 86 dominance, 55, 85 dynamic resilience, 104, 105, 107–113, 119 economic dominance theory (EDT), 85, 103 International Specialization Dynamics, First Edition Didier Lebert and Hafida El Younsi © ISTE Ltd 2017 Published by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc 172 International Specialization Dynamics egocentricity/egocentric networks, 85 European technologies market/EPO, 121, 152 European Union, 33, 36, 40, 79, 134 exchange structure, 6, 13, 36–39, 45, 53, 55–60, 70, 85, 86, 91– 94, 101, 115–119 G, I, K Giorgio Fagiolo, 4, 78, 53 globalization, Ỵle-de-France, 144 inclusion, 86-93, 96 industrial goods, influence direct influence, 13, 41, 42, 60, 70 graph, 55 indirect influence, 6, 42 self-influence, 42 insertion, 85–94, 96, 100, 101 integration, 27, 31, 85–89, 92, 93, 96, 100, 101, 152 interdependencies, 40, 42, 45, 55, 58, 86, 87, 91, 103, 109, 110, 113–116, 118, 141, 151, 152 international division of labor, 92, 93, 94, 96, 100, 101 international trade, 2–10 L, P, R laboratories of economics and partition/parts, 86, 87, 91, 109, 115, 149 patents, 117, 122, 123, 138 PATSTAT, 121, 122 REGPAT, 106, 121 research and development (R&D), 104 S, T, U, V static resilience, 107, 112 sectorization, 85, 86–93, 96, 100, 101 skills exchange, 93, 94, 100, 101 social network analysis (SNA), 1, 53, 105, 151 swatch, 141, 142 technological autonomy, 104, 113–119 knowledge, 103 landscapes, 121 trade flows control, 94, 101 trees spanning, 60 spanning trees with a single impulse node, 61–68 US technologies market/USPTO, 110, 112, 115, 117, 119, 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al Innovation Engineering: the Power of Intangible Networks ... 08] International Specialization Dynamics, First Edition Didier Lebert and Hafida El Younsi © ISTE Ltd 2017 Published by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc 2 International Specialization Dynamics. .. the end, the structure of international trade, on a given date, looks like the graph in Figure I.1 x International Specialization Dynamics Figure I.1 Structure of international trade in industrial... between companies In this book, we apply xvi International Specialization Dynamics certain principles of influence graphs theory to the study of international trade in industrial goods The idea