Lectures Marketing management: Chapter 3 - ThS. Nguyễn Tiến Dũng

Lectures Marketing management - Chapter 3: Collecting information and forecasting demand provides students with the knowledge: Components of a modern marketing, information system, internal records, marketing intelligence, analyzing the macroenvironment, forecasting and demand measurement. Invite you to refer to the disclosures.

CHAPTER COLLECTING INFORMATION AND FORECASTING DEMAND Nguyen Tien Dung, MBA Email: dung.nguyentien3@hust.edu.vn Chapter Questions ● What are the components of a modern marketing information system? ● What are useful internal records for such a system? ● What makes up a marketing intelligence system? ● What are some influential macroenvironment developments? ● How can companies accurately measure and forecast demand? © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management Chapter Main Contents Components of a Modern Marketing Information System Internal Records Marketing Intelligence Analyzing the Macroenvironment Forecasting and Demand Measurement © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management Types of Marketing Information ● Internal & External ● Event and research information ● Statistics-based & market research-based © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management Components of an MIS ● MIS (Marketing Information System) ● A marketing information system consists of people, equipment, and procedures to gather, sort, analyze, evaluate, and distribute needed, timely, and accurate information to marketing decision makers © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management Internal Records ● Order-to-payment cycle ● Sales information system ● Databases, warehousing, data mining © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management Marketing Intelligence System ● Definition of Marketing Intelligence System ● Collecting Marketing Intelligence on the Internet ● Communicating and Acting on Marketing Intelligence © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management Definition of Marketing Intelligence System ● A marketing intelligence system is a set of procedures and sources that managers use to obtain everyday information about developments in the marketing environment ● The internal records system supplies results data, but the marketing intelligence system supplies happenings data ● Methods: ● reading books, newspapers, and trade publications; ● talking to customers, suppliers, and distributors; ● monitoring social media on the Internet; ● meeting with other company managers © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management 10 Forecasting and Demand Measurement ● Types of Markets ● Types of Demand Measurements ● Forecasting Methods © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management 28 Types of markets ● The potential market is the set of consumers ● ● ● ● with a sufficient level of interest in a market offer The available market is the set of consumers who have interest, income, and access to a particular offer The qualified available market—the set of consumers who have interest, income, access, and qualifications for the market offer The target market is the part of the qualified available market the company decides to pursue The penetrated market is the set of consumers who are buying the company’s product © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management 29 Types of Demand Measurement © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management 30 A Vocabulary for Demand Measurement ● Market demand for a product is the total volume that would be bought by a defined customer group in a defined geographical area in a defined time period in a defined marketing environment under a defined marketing program ● MARKET FORECAST Only one level of industry marketing expenditure will actually occur The market demand corresponding to this level is called the market forecast © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management 31 © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management 32 Estimating Current Demand ● Total market potential is the maximum sales available to all firms in an industry during a given period, under a given level of industry marketing effort and environmental conditions ● Example: ● Detergent ● Instant noodles ● Books © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management 33 Methods ● Direct forecast based on n, q and p: ● TQ = n.q ● TR = n.q.p ● Chain-ratio method © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management 34 Area Market Potential ● The market-buildup method calls for identifying all the potential buyers in each market and estimating their potential purchases ● It produces accurate results if we have a list of all potential buyers and a good estimate of what each will buy ● North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management 35 ● Multiple-Factor Index Method ● Buying Power Index ● BPI = w1.F1 + w2.F2 + w3.F3 ● Brand Development Index © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management 36 Buying Power Index (BPI) ● A drug manufacturer wants to estimate the market size in Virginia for a drug ● The single-factor model: ● It might assume the market potential for drugs is directly related to population size ● If the state of Virginia has 2.28 percent of the U.S population, ● Virginia might be a market for 2.28 percent of total drugs sold ● A single factor is rarely a complete indicator of sales opportunity © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management 37 ● The Multiple-factor Model ● It is assumed that the drug demand depends on population, the retail sales, and disposable personal income ● F1 = Virginia per-capita income / US per-capita income = 2.00% ● The weight of F1: w1 = 0.5 ● F2 = Virginia retail sales / US retail sales = 1.96% ● The weight of F2: w2 = 0.3 ● F3 = Virginia population / US population = 2.28%; ● The weight of F3: w3 = 0.2 ● BPI (Virginia) = 0.5(2.00%) + 0.3(1.96%) + 0.2(2.28%)] = 2.044% ● 2.044 means the Virginia’s drug sales = 2.044 percent of the nation’s drug sales © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management 38 © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management 39 ● Industry sales and market shares ● Besides estimating total potential and area potential, a company needs to know the actual industry sales taking place in its market This means identifying competitors and estimating their sales © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management 40 Estimating Future Demand ● Survey of buyers’ intentions © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management 41 Some Techniques to Forecast ● Survey of buyers’ intentions ● Composite of sales force opinions ● Expert opinion ● Past-sales analysis ● Market-test method © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management 42 ... timely, and accurate information to marketing decision makers © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management Internal Records ● Order-to-payment cycle ● Sales information... Measurement © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management Types of Marketing Information ● Internal & External ● Event and research information ● Statistics-based &... © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing Management 23 Natural Environment ● Shortage of raw materials ● Increased energy costs ● Anti-pollution pressures ● Governmental protections © Nguyễn Tiến Dũng Marketing