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BỘ GIÁO DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TẠO TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ Tp.HCM -- Nguyễn Thị Ánh Loan MỐI QUAN HỆ GIỮA GIÁ VÀNG VÀ CHÍNH SÁCH TIỀN TỆ TẠI VIỆT NAM LUẬN VĂN THẠC SĨ KINH TẾ TP Hồ Chí Minh – Năm 2013 123doc BỘ GIÁO DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TẠO TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ Tp.HCM -- Nguyễn Thị Ánh Loan MỐI QUAN HỆ GIỮA GIÁ VÀNG VÀ CHÍNH SÁCH TIỀN TỆ TẠI VIỆT NAM Chuyên ngành: Tài – ngân hàng Mã số: 60340201 LUẬN VĂN THẠC SỸ KINH TẾ NGƯỜI HƯỚNG DẪN KHOA HỌC: PGS.TS NGUYỄN NGỌC ĐỊNH Tp Hồ Chí Minh – Năm 2013 123doc i LỜI CẢM ƠN Để hồn thành luận văn này, tơi xin chân thành gửi lời cảm ơn đến: PGS TS Nguyễn Ngọc Định – Phó Hiệu trưởng Trường Đại Học Kinh Tế TP Hồ Chí Minh tận tình giúp đỡ, định hướng phương pháp khoa học dẫn tơi xun suốt q trình thực luận văn Q thầy Trường Đại Học Kinh Tế Tp Hồ Chí Minh, Khoa Tài Chính Doanh Nghiệp hết lịng truyền đạt kiến thức quý báu suốt thời gian học tập trường Cuối cùng, xin chân thành cảm ơn gia đình, đồng nghiệp, anh chị, bạn bè khóa cao học K19 Trường Đại học Kinh tế Tp Hồ Chí Minh chia sẻ hỗ trợ, động viên, khích lệ tơi q trình học tập thực đề tài Trong trình thực hiện, nỗ lực học hỏi, xin ý kiến đóng góp Q thầy bạn bè, đọc nhiều tài liệu liên quan, song chắn không tránh khỏi thiếu sót kiến thức cịn nhiều hạn chế Rất mong nhận thơng tin đóng góp, phản hồi quý báu Quý thầy cô bạn đọc Xin chân thành cảm ơn! Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh, tháng 09 năm 2013 Người viết Nguyễn Thị Ánh Loan 123doc i LỜI CAM ĐOAN Tôi xin cam đoan cơng trình nghiên cứu tơi, có hỗ trợ người hướng dẫn khoa học Các nội dung nghiên cứu kết đề tài trung thực chưa công bố cơng trình Những số liệu bảng biểu phục vụ cho việc phân tích, đánh giá tác giả thu thập từ nguồn khác có ghi phần tài liệu tham khảo Ngồi ra, luận văn sử dụng số nhận xét, đánh giá tác giả khác, quan tổ chức khác có thích nguồn gốc sau trích dẫn để dễ tra cứu kiểm chứng, đồng thời thể tôn trọng tài sản trí tuệ Tơi hồn tồn chịu trách nhiệm trước nhà trường cam đoan Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh, tháng 09 năm 2013 Người viết Nguyễn Thị Ánh Loan 123doc i MỤC LỤC DANH MỤC CÁC TỪ VIẾT TẮT i DANH MỤC CÁC BẢNG BIỂU i DANH MỤC CÁC HÌNH ii TÓM TẮT i CHƯƠNG : GIỚI THIỆU CHƯƠNG : TỔNG QUAN CÁC KẾT QUẢ NGHIÊN CỨU TRƯỚC ĐÂY 2.1 CÁC NGHIÊN CỨU TRÊN THẾ GIỚI: 2.1.1 Nghiên cứu “The price of Gold and Monetary Policy” – Giá vàng sách tiền tệ W.D.Lastrapes George Selgin (1996): 2.1.2 Nghiên cứu “Gold price and Inflation” – Giá vàng lạm phát Greg Tkacz (2007): 2.2 CÁC NGHIÊN CỨU TẠI VIỆT NAM: 2.2.1 Nghiên cứu “Monetary Policy in Vietnam: Evidence from a Structural VAR” – Chính sách tiền tệ Việt Nam: Bằng chứng từ mơ hình cấu trúc VAR PhD Ky Viet Tran – World Bank (04/2009): 2.2.2 Paper “Inflationary Implication of gold price in Vietnam” tác động giá vàng đến lạm phát Việt Nam Nguyễn Thị Kim Cúc 2013: CHƯƠNG : PHƯƠNG PHÁP NGHIÊN CỨU 10 3.1 LỰA CHỌN MƠ HÌNH NGHIÊN CỨU: 10 3.2 PHƯƠNG PHÁP THU THẬP DỮ LIỆU: 11 3.2.1 Giá trị sản xuất công nghiệp (Y): 11 3.2.2 Chỉ số giá tiêu dùng toàn phần (CPI): 11 123doc C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an ii 3.2.3 Lãi suất dài hạn (R): 12 3.2.4 Giá vàng (G): 12 3.2.5 Chỉ số giá nguyên-nhiên-vật liệu (CP): 12 3.2.6 Tổng dự trữ ngân hàng (TR): 13 3.2.7 Lãi suất ngắn hạn (FR): 13 3.2.8 Tổng hợp biến mô tả số liệu: 14 3.2.9 Thứ tự xếp biến: 15 3.3 PHƯƠNG PHÁP KIỂM ĐỊNH MƠ HÌNH: 16 CHƯƠNG 4.1 : NỘI DUNG VÀ KẾT QUẢ NGHIÊN CỨU 18 XU HƯỚNG ĐIỀU HÀNH GIÁ VÀNG VÀ CHÍNH SÁCH TIỀN TỆ TẠI VIỆT NAM NHỮNG NĂM GẦN ĐÂY: 18 4.1.1 Xu hướng điều hành giá vàng nước: 18 4.1.2 Xu hướng điều hành sách tiền tệ nước: 19 4.2 PHÂN TÍCH MƠ HÌNH NGHIÊN CỨU: 19 4.2.1 Các bước kiểm định mơ hình: 20 4.2.2 Phân tích phản ứng xung: 28 CHƯƠNG : KẾT LUẬN 47 DANH MỤC TÀI LIỆU THAM KHẢO 50 PHỤ LỤC MƠ HÌNH VAR CƠ SỞ 52 PHỤ LỤC KẾT QUẢ KIỂM ĐỊNH TÍNH DỪNG 58 PHỤ LỤC KẾT QUẢ KIỂM ĐỊNH NHÂN QUẢ GRANGER 65 Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an i DANH MỤC CÁC TỪ VIẾT TẮT - ADF: Augmented Dickey-Fuller – Phương pháp Dickey-Fuller bổ sung - CPI: Consumer Price Index – Chỉ số giá tiêu dùng - EX: exchange Rate – Tỷ giá hối đoái - GSO: General Statistics Office – Tổng cục thống kê Việt Nam - IFS: International Financial Statistics – Thống kê tài quốc tế - IMF: International Monetary – Quỹ tiền tệ quốc tế - NHNN: Ngân hàng nhà nước - USD: Đô la Mỹ - VAR: Vector Autoregession – Tự hồi quy vector - VND: Đồng Việt Nam - SJC: Công ty TNHH MTV Vàng bạc đá quý Sài Gòn - SVAR: Structural Vector Autoregession – Tự hồi quy vector có cấu trúc - VCSC: Viet Capital Securities Joint Stock Company: Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Bản Việt - WGC: World Gold Council – Hội đồng vàng giới Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an i DANH MỤC CÁC BẢNG BIỂU Bảng 4.1: Kết kiểm định tính dừng chuỗi số liệu 21 Bảng 4.2 Kết kiểm định lựa chọn độ trễ mơ hình 22 Bảng 4.3: Kết kiểm định lựa chọn độ trễ mơ hình 23 Bảng 4.5 : Tính ổn định mơ hình VAR với nhóm liệu giá vàng nước 27 Bảng 4.6: Phản ứng biến yếu tố vĩ mơ sách tiền tệ trước cú sốc giá vàng giới 29 Bảng 4.7: Phản ứng yếu tố trước cú sốc lãi suất dài hạn: 31 Bảng 4.8: Phản ứng yếu tố trước cú sốc tỷ lệ dự trữ bắt buộc 33 Bảng 4.9: Phản ứng yếu tố trước cú sốc lãi suất cho vay qua đêm 35 Bảng 4.10: Phản ứng yếu tố trước cú sốc giá vàng nước 37 Bảng 4.12: Phân rã phương sai lãi suất dài hạn 41 Bảng 4.13: Phân rã phương sai tỷ lệ dự trữ bắt buộc 43 Bảng 4.14: Phân rã phương sai lãi suất cho vay qua đêm 45 Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an ii DANH MỤC CÁC HÌNH Hình 4.1: Tính ổn định mơ hình VAR với nhóm liệu giá vàng giới 24 Hình 4.2: Tính ổn định mơ hình VAR với nhóm liệu giá vàng nước 27 Hình 4.3: Phản ứng biến yếu tố vĩ mơ sách tiền tệ trước cú sốc giá vàng giới 28 Hình 4.4: Phản ứng yếu tố trước cú sốc lãi suất dài hạn 30 Hình 4.5: Phản ứng yếu tố trước cú sốc tỷ lệ dự trữ bắt buộc 32 Hình 4.6: Phản ứng yếu tố trước cú sốc lãi suất cho vay qua đêm 34 Hình 4.7: Phản ứng yếu tố trước cú sốc giá vàng nước 36 Hình 4.8: Phân rã phương sai giá vàng nước 38 Hình 4.9: Phân rã phương sai lãi suất dài hạn 40 Hình 4.10: Phân rã phương sai tỷ lệ dự trữ bắt buộc 42 Hình 4.11: Phân rã phương sai lãi suất cho vay qua đêm 44 Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an i TĨM TẮT Với mục đích tìm hiểu mối quan hệ giá vàng sách tiền tệ Việt Nam đề tài nghiên cứu thực phân tích tập hợp yếu tố liên quan đến giá vàng, sách tiền tệ mơi trường vĩ mơ thông qua sử dụng phương pháp tự hồi quy Vector VAR Các yếu tố đại diện cho mô trường vĩ mô bao gồm giá trị sản lượng công nghiệp, số giá tiêu dùng; yếu tố đại diện cho sách tiền tệ bao gồm lãi suất dài hạn (lãi suất trái phiếu kỳ hạn 05 năm), tỷ lệ dự trữ bắt buộc lãi suất cho vay qua đêm toán điện tử liên ngân hàng; yếu tố giá vàng phân tích hai khía cạnh giá vàng giới quy đổi giá vàng nước Dữ liệu phân tích lấy từ kỳ tháng 01/2000 đến hết tháng 06/2013 tương ứng với 162 số kỳ quan sát Kết phân tích mơ hình tự hồi quy vecor VAR cho thấy giá vàng nói chung đóng vai trị quan trọng kéo theo biến động thuận chiều biến sách tiền tệ gồm lãi suất dài hạn, tỷ lệ dự trữ bắt buộc lãi suất ngắn hạn; khi, thay đổi biến sách tiền tệ khơng kéo theo xu hướng biến động rõ rệt giá vàng Ngoài ra, biến động giá vàng giới giá vàng nước kéo theo phản ứng thuận chiều mạnh mẽ số giá tiêu dùng Điều thể giá vàng báo quan trọng cần quan tâm mức việc điều hành sách tiền tệ ổn định giá Từ khóa chính: Mơ hình tự hồi quy vector VAR, sách tiền tệ, giá vàng, giá trị sản xuất công nghiệp, số giá tiêu dùng, lãi suất dài hạn, số giá dầu, tỷ lệ dự trữ bắt buộc, lãi suất cho vay qua đêm Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 65 PHỤ LỤC KẾT QUẢ KIỂM ĐỊNH NHÂN QUẢ GRANGER Mô hình với nhóm chuỗi liệu giá vàng giới: Các bảng giản lược dịng kết khơng thể quan hệ nhân Lags: Null Hypothesis: TR does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause TR CPI does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause CPI R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R CPI does not Granger Cause Y Y does not Granger Cause CPI TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR Lags: Null Hypothesis: CPI does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause CPI TR does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause TR CPI does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause Y Y does not Granger Cause CPI R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Obs 160 160 160 161 161 161 Obs 159 159 159 160 160 160 160 125 125 F-Statistic Prob 0.48818 0.4858 4.91772 0.028 0.08434 0.7719 4.27471 0.0403 2.72573 0.1007 5.45515 0.0208 24.5942 2.00E-06 2.07486 0.1517 4.17298 0.0427 0.4124 0.5217 12.2091 0.0006 0.12807 0.7209 F-Statistic Prob 2.00115 0.1387 4.78426 0.0096 0.39193 0.6764 4.05523 0.0192 0.44657 0.6406 3.30864 0.0392 3.64524 0.0284 0.98407 0.3761 3.31199 0.039 8.88713 0.0002 1.87987 0.1561 7.85994 0.0006 7.81986 0.0006 0.1542 0.8572 3.33781 0.0388 1.92721 0.15 11.0039 4.00E-05 0.15207 0.8591 Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 66 Lags: Null Hypothesis: CPI does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause CPI TR does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause FR R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Lags: Null Hypothesis: TR does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause FR CPI does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause CPI R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Lags: Obs 158 158 124 158 159 159 124 159 124 124 Obs 157 123 157 157 158 158 123 158 123 123 F-Statistic Prob 1.11783 0.3438 2.96214 0.0341 0.2082 0.8906 3.00278 0.0324 3.23158 0.0249 1.3958 0.2476 3.23788 0.0239 1.14418 0.3333 1.60388 0.1908 7.35712 0.0001 1.32384 0.2688 6.60185 0.0003 0.32976 0.8038 3.17334 0.0269 5.2205 0.0019 0.6575 0.5794 2.82408 0.0418 11.4707 1.00E-06 9.66868 9.00E-06 5.54478 0.0014 F-Statistic Prob 0.23078 0.9207 2.79208 0.0284 3.429 0.011 1.58446 0.1832 0.44217 0.778 2.64028 0.0361 2.65793 0.0351 0.77513 0.543 1.81037 0.1298 6.06833 0.0001 2.15665 0.0767 5.85474 0.0002 3.27048 0.014 2.04247 0.0931 4.56872 0.0017 0.70719 0.5882 1.29176 0.2775 7.82612 1.00E-05 6.82797 6.00E-05 3.4387 0.0108 Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 67 Null Hypothesis: R does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause Y Y does not Granger Cause FR R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Lags: Null Hypothesis: R does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause FR R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R FR does not Granger Cause Y Y does not Granger Cause FR R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Obs 156 156 122 122 157 157 122 157 122 122 Obs 155 155 121 155 121 156 156 121 156 121 121 F-Statistic Prob 3.55746 0.0046 1.34907 0.2471 1.58824 0.167 2.60031 0.0277 3.54393 0.0052 1.31893 0.2613 2.79554 0.0204 0.15054 0.9795 1.47065 0.2029 5.80227 6.00E-05 1.79915 0.1165 5.12151 0.0002 2.75107 0.0221 2.78832 0.0207 10.8606 7.00E-09 0.51121 0.7675 1.35304 0.2476 17.9405 5.00E-13 5.65492 0.0001 3.70608 0.0039 F-Statistic Prob 3.11913 0.0067 0.91216 0.4881 1.13118 0.3473 2.36576 0.033 2.59856 0.0216 1.47729 0.1927 1.82286 0.0987 2.18181 0.0481 2.45319 0.0291 0.33661 0.9162 1.63263 0.1423 10.2879 2.00E-09 1.50244 0.1814 5.9053 2.00E-05 2.25024 0.0438 1.68891 0.1306 12.3412 4.00E-11 7.03254 1.00E-06 1.27366 0.2755 16.8119 1.00E-13 3.41992 0.004 5.04777 0.0001 Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 68 Lags: Null Hypothesis: R does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause R FR does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause FR R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Lags: Null Hypothesis: CPI does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause CPI R does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause TR R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Obs 154 120 154 155 155 155 120 120 Obs 153 153 153 153 154 154 119 154 119 119 F-Statistic Prob 2.7677 0.0101 1.01973 0.4201 2.17217 0.0425 1.28065 0.267 1.95736 0.0651 2.08132 0.0494 2.01818 0.0569 15.7503 4.00E-15 2.17753 0.0397 6.24797 2.00E-06 11.0095 5.00E-11 6.35427 2.00E-06 1.1193 0.3566 14.5619 4.00E-13 2.89975 0.0082 5.6003 2.00E-05 F-Statistic Prob 1.44694 0.1826 2.23773 0.0283 2.4319 0.0173 1.65545 0.1149 1.94732 0.0578 2.02652 0.0477 2.91089 0.005 1.10761 0.3619 2.49833 0.0146 13.4901 3.00E-14 2.12455 0.0374 5.45591 6.00E-06 1.78199 0.0891 6.23068 2.00E-06 10.0597 6.00E-11 5.00751 2.00E-05 0.89059 0.5273 14.4145 7.00E-14 2.68331 0.0102 7.15115 2.00E-07 Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 69 Lags: Null Hypothesis: WG does not Granger Cause CPI R does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause TR R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause TR R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Lags: 10 Null Hypothesis: CPI does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause CPI R does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause FR R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause TR R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR Obs 152 152 152 152 153 153 118 153 118 118 Obs 151 151 151 117 151 151 152 152 117 152 F-Statistic Prob 1.95646 0.0493 2.32587 0.0183 1.61474 0.1171 2.51172 0.0109 1.45663 0.1706 2.18768 0.0266 1.95655 0.0493 3.64674 0.0004 1.05855 0.3977 2.22258 0.0242 12.4529 3.00E-14 1.85709 0.0637 5.02525 8.00E-06 1.65518 0.1102 5.43232 5.00E-06 9.66275 3.00E-11 4.49283 4.00E-05 0.73378 0.677 16.1436 6.00E-16 2.41986 0.0158 12.7425 3.00E-13 F-Statistic Prob 2.79555 0.0036 1.79999 0.0666 2.13892 0.0257 1.68143 0.0916 2.25865 0.0181 1.35615 0.2079 1.93839 0.049 0.91802 0.5202 2.30223 0.016 1.77907 0.0705 3.32258 0.0007 0.7946 0.634 2.23349 0.0195 11.1442 1.00E-13 1.70642 0.0856 4.78243 8.00E-06 1.47501 0.1606 12.0327 3.00E-13 8.68662 8.00E-11 3.4192 0.0005 Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 70 FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Lags: 11 Null Hypothesis: CPI does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause CPI R does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause TR R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause TR R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Lags: 12 Null Hypothesis: CP does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause CP Y does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause Y CPI does not Granger Cause WG WG does not Granger Cause CPI Y does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause Y CPI does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause CPI R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CP 117 0.58861 13.2704 1.70605 10.4385 117 Obs 150 150 150 150 150 151 151 116 151 116 116 Obs 149 149 149 149 149 149 149 F-Statistic Prob 2.44552 0.0084 1.59143 0.1088 2.11743 0.0234 1.62229 0.0999 2.04956 0.0288 1.38355 0.1883 2.13996 0.0218 1.55268 0.1209 3.0604 0.0011 0.73812 0.7002 2.03263 0.0302 11.8439 5.00E-15 1.68387 0.084 6.9515 4.00E-09 1.35875 0.2058 12.3882 5.00E-14 7.72414 4.00E-10 3.06035 0.0011 0.60939 0.8166 12.0268 1.00E-13 1.49906 0.145 11.3418 5.00E-13 F-Statistic Prob 0.45195 0.9383 1.89731 0.0407 0.93228 0.5173 1.30099 0.2262 2.44999 0.0067 1.46446 0.1465 1.92716 0.0371 1.07975 0.3828 1.93733 0.0359 1.91408 0.0386 4.38192 8.00E-06 1.64128 0.0885 2.9952 0.001 Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc 0.8197 3.00E-14 0.0903 1.00E-11 C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 71 CP does not Granger Cause TR R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR 0.6836 1.96689 10.9397 1.59596 9.61415 1.39059 11.1565 7.78242 2.77903 0.59133 10.9657 1.38221 9.87444 150 150 115 150 115 115 0.7646 0.0326 1.00E-14 0.1009 5.00E-13 0.1851 3.00E-13 1.00E-10 0.0022 0.8439 4.00E-13 0.1891 5.00E-12 Mơ hình với nhóm chuỗi liệu giá vàng nước: Các bảng giản lược dịng kết khơng thể quan hệ nhân Lags: Null Hypothesis: CPI does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause CPI R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R CPI does not Granger Cause Y Y does not Granger Cause CPI G does not Granger Cause Y Y does not Granger Cause G G does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause G TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR Lags: Null Hypothesis: CPI does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause Y Y does not Granger Cause CPI G does not Granger Cause Y Y does not Granger Cause G R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R G does not Granger Cause CPI Obs 160 160 161 161 161 161 161 Obs 159 160 160 160 160 F-Statistic Prob 0.08434 0.7719 4.27471 0.0403 2.72573 0.1007 5.45515 0.0208 24.5942 2.00E-06 2.07486 0.1517 32.5239 6.00E-08 2.40E-07 0.9996 23.2012 3.00E-06 2.04296 0.1549 4.17298 0.0427 0.4124 0.5217 12.2091 0.0006 0.12807 0.7209 F-Statistic Prob 0.44657 0.6406 3.30864 0.0392 3.64524 0.0284 0.98407 0.3761 3.18692 0.044 0.16634 0.8469 3.31199 0.039 8.88713 0.0002 9.54598 0.0001 Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 72 CPI does not Granger Cause G TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR G does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause G TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Lags: Null Hypothesis: R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R G does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause G TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Lags: Null Hypothesis: CPI does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause CPI R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R G does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause G TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR 1.88485 1.87987 7.85994 0.27298 0.66861 3.17324 1.58975 7.81986 0.1542 3.33781 1.92721 11.0039 0.15207 160 125 160 160 125 125 Obs 158 159 159 159 124 159 124 124 Obs 157 157 158 158 158 F-Statistic Prob 3.23788 0.0239 1.14418 0.3333 1.60388 0.1908 7.35712 0.0001 6.33739 0.0004 1.68783 0.172 1.32384 0.2688 6.60185 0.0003 0.32976 0.8038 3.17334 0.0269 5.2205 0.0019 0.6575 0.5794 2.82408 0.0418 11.4707 1.00E-06 9.66868 9.00E-06 5.54478 0.0014 F-Statistic Prob 0.44217 0.778 2.64028 0.0361 2.65793 0.0351 0.77513 0.543 1.81037 0.1298 6.06833 0.0001 4.38309 0.0022 1.31427 0.2673 2.15665 0.0767 5.85474 0.0002 Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc 0.1553 0.1561 0.0006 0.7616 0.5143 0.0446 0.2073 0.0006 0.8572 0.0388 0.15 4.00E-05 0.8591 C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 73 FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Lags: Null Hypothesis: FR does not Granger Cause Y Y does not Granger Cause FR R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R G does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause G TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Lags: Null Hypothesis: R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R FR does not Granger Cause Y Y does not Granger Cause FR R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R G does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause G TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR G does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause G 123 3.27048 2.04247 4.56872 0.70719 1.29176 7.82612 6.82797 3.4387 158 123 123 Obs 122 157 157 157 122 157 122 122 Obs 155 121 156 156 156 121 156 F-Statistic Prob 2.79554 0.0204 0.15054 0.9795 1.47065 0.2029 5.80227 6.00E-05 3.45363 0.0056 1.07269 0.378 1.79915 0.1165 5.12151 0.0002 2.75107 0.0221 2.78832 0.0207 10.8606 7.00E-09 0.51121 0.7675 1.35304 0.2476 17.9405 5.00E-13 5.65492 0.0001 3.70608 0.0039 F-Statistic Prob 1.82286 0.0987 2.18181 0.0481 2.45319 0.0291 0.33661 0.9162 1.63263 0.1423 10.2879 2.00E-09 2.73335 0.0152 2.01526 0.0674 1.50244 0.1814 5.9053 2.00E-05 2.25024 0.0438 1.68891 0.1306 2.32885 0.0355 1.09303 0.3694 Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc 0.014 0.0931 0.0017 0.5882 0.2775 1.00E-05 6.00E-05 0.0108 C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 74 TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Lags: Null Hypothesis: R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R G does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause G TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Lags: Null Hypothesis: R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause TR R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R G does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause G TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR 156 12.3412 7.03254 1.27366 16.8119 3.41992 5.04777 121 121 Obs 154 155 155 155 155 120 120 Obs 153 153 154 154 154 119 154 119 119 F-Statistic Prob 1.95736 0.0651 2.08132 0.0494 2.01818 0.0569 15.7503 4.00E-15 2.30062 0.03 1.59024 0.143 2.17753 0.0397 6.24797 2.00E-06 11.0095 5.00E-11 6.35427 2.00E-06 1.1193 0.3566 14.5619 4.00E-13 2.89975 0.0082 5.6003 2.00E-05 F-Statistic Prob 1.94732 0.0578 2.02652 0.0477 2.91089 0.005 1.10761 0.3619 2.49833 0.0146 13.4901 3.00E-14 2.16616 0.0337 1.52601 0.1536 2.12455 0.0374 5.45591 6.00E-06 1.78199 0.0891 6.23068 2.00E-06 10.0597 6.00E-11 5.00751 2.00E-05 0.89059 0.5273 14.4145 7.00E-14 2.68331 0.0102 7.15115 2.00E-07 Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc 4.00E-11 1.00E-06 0.2755 1.00E-13 0.004 0.0001 C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 75 Lags: Null Hypothesis: R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause TR R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R G does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause G TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR G does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause G TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Lags: 10 Null Hypothesis: R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause TR R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R G does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause G TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR G does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause G TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Obs 152 152 153 153 153 118 153 153 118 118 Obs 151 151 152 152 152 117 152 152 117 117 F-Statistic Prob 2.18768 0.0266 1.95655 0.0493 3.64674 0.0004 1.05855 0.3977 2.22258 0.0242 12.4529 3.00E-14 2.1777 0.0273 1.29584 0.2448 1.85709 0.0637 5.02525 8.00E-06 1.65518 0.1102 5.43232 5.00E-06 2.41835 0.0141 0.93452 0.4975 9.66275 3.00E-11 4.49283 4.00E-05 0.73378 0.677 16.1436 6.00E-16 2.41986 0.0158 12.7425 3.00E-13 F-Statistic Prob 2.30223 0.016 1.77907 0.0705 3.32258 0.0007 0.7946 0.634 2.23349 0.0195 11.1442 1.00E-13 2.13832 0.0257 1.85781 0.0568 1.70642 0.0856 4.78243 8.00E-06 1.47501 0.1606 12.0327 3.00E-13 2.51001 0.0086 0.77756 0.6502 8.68662 8.00E-11 3.4192 0.0005 0.58861 0.8197 13.2704 3.00E-14 1.70605 0.0903 10.4385 1.00E-11 Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 76 Lags: 11 Null Hypothesis: R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause TR R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R G does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause G TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR G does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause G TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Lags: 12 Null Hypothesis: Y does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause Y CPI does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause CPI R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause TR R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R G does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause G TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR G does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause G Obs 150 150 151 151 151 116 151 151 116 116 Obs 149 149 149 149 150 150 150 115 150 F-Statistic Prob 2.13996 0.0218 1.55268 0.1209 3.0604 0.0011 0.73812 0.7002 2.03263 0.0302 11.8439 5.00E-15 2.00673 0.0327 1.66809 0.0878 1.68387 0.084 6.9515 4.00E-09 1.35875 0.2058 12.3882 5.00E-14 2.14637 0.0214 0.75064 0.6881 7.72414 4.00E-10 3.06035 0.0011 0.60939 0.8166 12.0268 1.00E-13 1.49906 0.145 11.3418 5.00E-13 F-Statistic Prob 1.92716 0.0371 1.07975 0.3828 1.93733 0.0359 1.91408 0.0386 4.38192 8.00E-06 1.64128 0.0885 2.9952 0.001 0.6836 0.7646 1.96689 0.0326 10.9397 1.00E-14 1.90717 0.0394 1.79576 0.0556 1.59596 0.1009 9.61415 5.00E-13 1.39059 0.1851 11.1565 3.00E-13 2.05663 0.0245 0.67991 0.7681 Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 77 TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Lags: 13 Null Hypothesis: CPI does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause CPI R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause TR R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Lags: 14 Null Hypothesis: CPI does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause CPI R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause TR R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR TR does not Granger Cause R 150 7.78242 2.77903 0.59133 10.9657 1.38221 9.87444 115 115 Obs 148 148 148 149 149 114 149 114 114 Obs 147 147 147 148 148 113 148 F-Statistic Prob 2.39066 0.0068 1.77181 0.0551 4.86884 9.00E-07 1.29088 0.2275 2.63919 0.0028 0.65659 0.8012 1.70112 0.0687 9.41432 3.00E-13 1.23898 0.2603 10.5265 1.00E-14 1.11987 0.3538 10.8077 3.00E-13 7.18974 3.00E-10 2.57551 0.0035 0.44305 0.9489 10.9879 2.00E-13 1.28588 0.2369 9.25269 1.00E-11 F-Statistic Prob 2.18641 0.012 1.58606 0.0929 5.05482 3.00E-07 1.37831 0.1743 2.38237 0.0059 0.70499 0.7657 1.74571 0.0553 8.62634 1.00E-12 1.2598 0.2427 9.74122 4.00E-14 1.07711 0.3898 9.79028 2.00E-12 6.5149 1.00E-09 Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc 1.00E-10 0.0022 0.8439 4.00E-13 0.1891 5.00E-12 C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 78 R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Lags: 15 Null Hypothesis: CPI does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause CPI R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause TR R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause FR TR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause R R does not Granger Cause FR FR does not Granger Cause TR TR does not Granger Cause FR Lags: 16 Null Hypothesis: CPI does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause CPI R does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause R G does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause G TR does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause TR FR does not Granger Cause CP CP does not Granger Cause FR G does not Granger Cause Y Y does not Granger Cause G R does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause R TR does not Granger Cause CPI CPI does not Granger Cause TR 2.31637 0.40126 9.82645 1.1202 8.88185 113 113 Obs 146 146 146 147 147 112 147 112 112 Obs 145 145 145 145 111 146 146 146 F-Statistic Prob 1.88765 0.0313 1.64098 0.0735 4.69945 6.00E-07 1.46342 0.1307 3.17216 0.0002 0.67482 0.8044 1.60671 0.0822 8.07963 3.00E-12 1.17719 0.2992 9.4286 4.00E-14 1.05612 0.4095 9.67003 1.00E-12 7.37411 3.00E-11 2.14942 0.0119 0.36932 0.9832 9.81831 1.00E-12 1.00714 0.4565 8.13495 7.00E-11 F-Statistic Prob 1.85048 0.0329 1.59477 0.0815 4.02867 5.00E-06 1.41608 0.1469 1.78565 0.0416 0.4572 0.9619 3.62534 3.00E-05 0.52612 0.9284 1.86892 0.0364 1.15581 0.322 1.10296 0.3609 1.83668 0.0344 1.47474 0.1215 8.12241 1.00E-12 1.07102 0.3908 7.95079 2.00E-12 Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn 123doc 0.0074 0.9709 2.00E-12 0.3529 2.00E-11 C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn