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These scenarios represent different policy foci, for example; sc1 bau (business as usual) scenario (27)

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169 Electricity — Renewables (ElR) 0 00 0 00 9 21 0 00 0 00 9 52 9 23 Electricity – Solar power (ElS) 0 00 0 00 5 83 0 00 0 00 6 03 5 84 Water 1 61 1 57 0 67 4 29 0 39 0 87 0 90 Water supply — Surface[.]

169 Electricity — Renewables (ElR) 0.00 0.00 9.21 0.00 0.00 9.52 9.23 Electricity – Solar power (ElS) 0.00 0.00 5.83 0.00 0.00 6.03 5.84 Water 1.61 1.57 0.67 4.29 0.39 0.87 0.90 0.76 1.05 0.47 1.06 0.11 0.58 0.61 0.04 0.05 0.02 0.05 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.14 0.19 0.09 0.20 0.02 0.11 0.11 0.67 0.28 0.10 2.98 0.25 0.16 0.15 Other 136.19 254.20 94.69 256.32 244.98 101.66 96.77 Industry 57.70 105.74 39.57 106.62 101.90 42.77 40.28 Services 78.50 148.46 55.12 149.69 143.07 58.89 56.49 Total 273.64 480.28 234.84 487.06 461.73 253.37 245.18 75.5 -14.2 78.0 68.7 -7.4 -10.4 3.6 -0.95 3.7 3.3 -0.5 -0.9 Water supply — Surface and groundwater Water supply — Managed water Sewage water recycling Wastewater recycling management Growth of energy intensity during 2014–2030 (%) Annual growth of energy intensity during 2014–2030 (%) Source: Estimates are developed from this research In the SC3 Food scenario, the energy intensity of Vietnam is expected to rise by 79% during 2014–2030, from 277 Toe per million dollars in 2014 to 487.1 Toe per million dollars in 2030 (Table 6-3), the highest growth of all the scenarios This rate is equivalent to an average annual growth of 3.7%, which is marginally (0.1 %) higher than the increase rate of SC1 but significantly higher than SC2 (4.7 %) This enormous worsening of energy intensity in SC3 is mainly due to the absence of investment in energy amid vastly increasing food processing and food production capacity, according to the assumptions of SC3 Therefore, this would increase energy consumption for water cycling, pumping, and distribution to meet the rising water demand of the whole food supply chain The high-energy-intensity areas would occur in both the food and water sectors, which would be 4.29 Toe per million dollars and 0.14 Toe per million dollars, respectively In the food sector, the average annual increase of energy intensity is forecast to be % and 12 % higher than SC1 and SC2, respectively Meanwhile, the energy intensity of the water sector is expected to increase annually by 33% and 42% more than SC1 and SC2 on average In the SC4—Water scenario, energy intensity is expected to increase by 68.7% over the next 16 years, which is equivalent to an average annual increase of 3.3%, reaching 461.7 Toe per million dollars in 2030 Among non-nexus and non-energy-oriented scenarios,

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